Home ESEM 2001 | Econometric Links Econometrics Journal
ESEM Lausanne - 2001 - Complete Scientific ProgrammeContributed and invited Sessions
Sunday, August 26, 2001 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 09:00 - 10:30 ROOM B1-121 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ARBITRAGE AND ASSET PRICING Chairperson: D. Won , South Korea ARBITRAGE AND OPTIMAL PORTFOLIO CHOICE WITH FINANCIAL CONSTRAINTS M. Summer, H. Elsinger, Economic Studies Division, Oesterreichische Nationalbank, Vienna, Austria ARBITRAGE AND EQUILIBRIUM IN C.M.O MARKETS J. Fajardo, A. Araujo, M.R. Pascoa, Department of Economics, Catholic University of Brasilia, Brazil REFINED ASSET PRICING AND EQUILIBRIUM WITH FRICTIONS D. Won, G. Hahn, Kongju National University, Industrial Information, Yesan, Choongnam, South Korea NO-ARBITRAGE CONDITION AND EXISTENCE OF EQUILIBRIA IN ASSET MARKETS WITH A CONTINUUM OF TRADERS F.A.M. Magnien, C.L. Van, Institut National de la Statistique et des Etudes Economiques (INSEE), Malakoff, France -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 09:00 - 10:30 ROOM B1-122 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- AUCTIONS I Chairperson: S. Vagstad , Norway SHOULD AUCTIONEERS SUPPLY EARLY INFORMATION TO PROSPECTIVE BIDDERS? S. Vagstad, Department of Economics, University of Bergen, Bergen, Norway PRIVATIZATION, LARGE SHAREHOLDERS, AND SEQUENTIAL AUCTIONS OF SHARES B. Bortolotti, Department of Economics and Finance, Universite di Torino and FEEM, Milan, Italy -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 09:00 - 10:30 ROOM B1-123 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- CRIME AND LAW ENFORCEMENT Chairperson: G. Spagnolo , Germany THE ILLICIT DRUG MARKET: PARADOXICAL EFFECTS OF LAW ENFORCEMENT POLICIES S. Poret, CREST, LEI, Paris, France DIVIDI ET IMPERA: OPTIMAL DETERRENCE MECHANISMS AGAINST CARTELS AND ORGANIZED CRIME G. Spagnolo, University of Mannheim and Stockholm School of Economics, Mannheim, Germany CRIME, PUNISHMENT, AND BACKGROUND RISKS W.H. Chiu, P. Madden, University of Manchester, School of Economic Studies, Manchester, UK -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 09:00 - 10:30 ROOM B1-125 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ECONOMIC GEOGRAPHY Chairperson: S. Uimonen , Finland NEGATIVE EXTERNALITY, HETEROGENEOUS INDIVIDUALS AND THE SYSTEMS OF CITIES S. Uimonen, University of Helsinki, Dept. of Economics, Helsinki, Finland INCREASING RETURNS, ECONOMIC GEOGRAPHY, AND THE ENVIRONMENT M. Haavio, Department of Economics, University of Helsinki, Helsinki, Finland FOREIGN DIRECT INVESTMENT AND ENVIROMENTAL TAXES R.A. De Santis, F. Staehler, European Central Bank, Frankfurt am Main, Germany -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 09:00 - 10:30 ROOM B1-126 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- FOUNDATIONS OF COMPETITIVE EQUILIBRIUM I Chairperson: I. Maret , France REGULAR ECONOMIES WITHOUT ORDERED PREFERENCES J.M. Bonnisseau, University of Paris, CERMSEM, Paris, France BEHAVIORAL HETEROGENEITY IN LARGE ECONOMIES I. Maret, G. Giraud, BETA/Theme, Universite Louis Pasteur, Economics, Strasbourg, Bas-Rhin, France IDIOSYNCRATIC SHOCKS, AGGREGATE FLUCTUATIONS AND THE REPRESENTATIVE CONSUMER S. Maliar, University of Alicante, Fundamentos del Analisis Economico, Alicante, Spain -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 09:00 - 10:30 ROOM B1-129 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- GAME THEORY AND EXPERIMENTS Chairperson: D. Probst , Germany INFORMAL SANCTIONS U. Fischbacher, A. Falk, E. Fehr, University of Zurich, IEW, Zurich, Switzerland FAIR PROCEDURES J. Brandts, G.E. Bolton, A. Ockenfels, CSIC, UAB, Bellaterra (Barcelona), Spain THE EMERGENCE OF TRUST D. Probst, M. Blonski, Department of Economic Theory, Mannheim University, Mannheim, Germany DO INCENTIVE CONTRACTS CROWD OUT VOLUNTARY COOPERATION? S. Gaechter, E. Fehr, University of St. Gallen, St. Gallen, Switzerland -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 09:00 - 10:30 ROOM B1-231 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- LABOUR I Chairperson: J. Wagner , Germany THE IMPACT OF INSTITUTIONAL AGENTS ON JOB CREATION AND DESTRUCTION H. Dale-Olsen, Institute for Social Research, Oslo, Norway THRESHOLD VALUES IN GERMAN LABOR LAW AND JOB DYNAMICS IN SMALL FIRMS: THE CASE OF THE DISABILITY LAW J. Wagner, K. Schnabel, A. Koelling, Department of Economics, University of Lueneburg, Germany HOW TO DESTROY INVESTMENT INCENTIVES - THE EUROPEAN COMMISSION'S BAN OF TRANSFER FEES IN PROFESSIONAL FOOTBALL G. Muehlheusser, E. Feess, Bonn University, Economics, Bonn, Germany -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 09:00 - 10:30 ROOM B1-232 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- MECHANISM DESIGN I Chairperson: F. Squintani , USA UNDERSTANDING HIGH-POWERED INCENTIVES D.C. Jenter, Department of Finance, Harvard Business School, Boston MA, USA THE EFFICIENCY OF SEVERANCE PAYMENT B. Jeong, CERGE-EI, Prague, Czech Republic OPTIMAL CONTRACTS UNDER GENERALIZED VERIFIABILITY CORRESPONDENCES F. Squintani, University of Rochester, Economics, Rochester NY, USA -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 09:00 - 10:30 ROOM B1-306 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- MONETARY POLICY RULES Chairperson: D. Vestin , Sweden INFLATION TARGETING IN A SMALL OPEN ECONOMY A.J. Sutherland, University of St Andrews, Economics, St Andrews, Fife, UK THE ROLE OF THE EXCHANGE RATE IN MONETARY POLICY RULES O. Senay, Department of Economics, Middle East Technical University, ODTU, Ankara, Turkey AVERAGE INFLATION TARGETING M. Nessen, D. Vestin, Sveriges Riksbank, Research Department, Stockholm, Sweden -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 09:00 - 10:30 ROOM B1-307 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SELLING UNDER ADVERSE SELECTION Chairperson: L. Quesada , France SEQUENTIAL FORMATION OF BUYER-SELLER NETWORKS S. Bahceci, Brown University, Dept of Economics, Providence, RI, USA SELF-CONFIDENCE AND SURVIVAL: A STRATEGIC ONE-ARMED BANDIT WITH PRIVATE INFORMATION H. Bar-Isaac, London School of Economics, Financial Markets Group and Department of Economics, London, UK FORWARD MARKET AND SIGNAL OF QUALITY V. Meunier, P. Mahenc, University of Toulouse - INRA, Economics, Toulouse, France INFORMED PRINCIPAL IN THE PRIVATE VALUES FRAMEWORK L. Quesada, University of Toulouse, Economics, Toulouse, France -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 09:00 - 10:30 ROOM B2-2024 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- BOOTSTRAP METHODS I Chairperson: R. Davidson , France IMPROVING THE RELIABILITY OF BOOTSTRAP TESTS R. Davidson, J.G. Mackinnon, Centre de la Vieille Charite, GREQAM, Marseille, France SIGNIFICANCE LEVELS OF HETEROSKEDASTICITY-ROBUST TESTS FOR SPECIFIACTION AND MISSPECIFICATION: SOME RESULTS ON THE USE OF WILD BOOTSTRAPS C.D. Orme, L.G. Godfrey, University of Manchester, School of Economic Studies, Manchester, UK SUBSAMPLING INFERENCE IN CUBE ROOT ASYMPTOTICS WITH AN APPLICATION TO MANSKI'S MAXIMUM SCORE ESTIMATOR M. Delgado, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid, Madrid, Spain -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 09:00 - 10:30 ROOM B2-2064 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- GARCH MODELS Chairperson: C. He , Sweden FOURTH MOMENTS OF MULTIVARIATE GARCH PROCESSES C.M. Hafner, Electrabel, R&D Energy Markets, Louvain-la-Neuve, Belgium MOMENT AND MEMORY PROPERTIES OF LINEAR CONDITIONAL HETEROSCEDASTICITY MODELS J.E.H. Davidson, Cardiff University, Cardiff Business School, Aberystwyth, UK EMPIRICAL PROCESS FOR THE SQUARED RESISUALS OF AN ARCH SEQUENCE. THEORY AND BOOTSTRAP BASED SPECIFICATION TESTS G. Teyssiere, L. Horvath, P. Kokoszka, GREQAM, Marseille, France MOMENTS AND THE AUTOCORRELATION STRUCTURE OF THE EXPONENTIAL GARCH (P,Q) PROCESS C. He, Stockholm School of Economics, Stockholm, Sweden -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 09:00 - 10:30 ROOM B2-2106 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SEASONAL UNIT ROOTS Chairperson: N. Haldrup , Denmark MEASURMENT ERRORS AND OUTLIERS IN SEASONAL UNIT ROOT TESTING N. Haldrup, A. Montanes, A. Sanso, University of Aarhus, Department of Economics, Aarhus, Denmark SEASONAL UNIT ROOT TESTS UNDER STRUCTURAL BREAKS P.M.M. Rodrigues, U. Hassler, University of Algarve, Faculty of Economics, Faro, Portugal ON THE PROPERTIES OF REGRESSION-BASED TEST FOR SEASONAL UNIT ROOTS IN THE PRESENCE OF HIGHER ORDER SERIAL CORRELATION P. Burridge, City University, UK -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 09:00 - 10:30 ROOM B2-2013 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- COINTEGRATION: APPLICATIONS I Chairperson: O. Holtemoeller , Germany AN I(2) ANALYSIS OF MONEY AND PRICES IN THE EURO AREA O. Holtemoeller, Humboldt-Universitaet zu Berlin and Freie Universitaet Berlin, Ph.D. Program Applied Microeconomics, Berlin, Germany THE POLISH CRAWLING PEG SYSTEM: A COINTEGRATION ANALYSIS C. Trenkler, Department of Economics, Humboldt University, Berlin, Germany CURRENCY SUBSTITUTION AND THE STABILITY OF THE ITALIAN DEMAND FOR MONEY BEFORE THE ENTRY INTO THE MONETARY UNION, 1972-1998 J. Wolters, H.S. Nielsen, G. Tullio, Freie Universitat Berlin, Economics, Institute for Statistics and Econometrics, Berlin, Germany -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 09:00 - 10:30 ROOM B2-2044 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- INFERENCE: ASYMPTOTIC APPROXIMATIONS Chairperson: M. Caner , USA ESTIMATION IN DISCRETE PARAMETER MODELS R. Seri, C. Choirat, CREST, Laboratoire de Statistique, Malakoff, France LEAST ABSOLUTE DEVIATION ESTIMATION OF A THRESHOLD MODEL M. Caner, University of Pittsburgh, Economics Dept., Pittsburgh, PA, USA AN INFORMATION THEORETIC APPROACH TO ROBUST ESTIMATION D.J. Miller, Purdue University, Agricultural Economics, West Lafayette, Indiana, USA -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 09:00 - 10:30 ROOM B2-2060 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- COUNT DATA MODELS Chairperson: J. Nordstrom , Sweden BAYESIAN ANALYSIS OF COUNT DATA MODELS R. Winkelmann, IZA Bonn, Bonn, Germany AN ALLOCATION MODEL FOR INTERNATIONAL GUEST NIGHTS IN SWEDISH HOTELS AND COTTAGES K. Brannas, J. Nordstrom, Department of Economics, Umea, Sweden A NOTE ON THE ESTIMATION OF MIXTURE MODELS UNDER ENDOGENOUS SAMPLING WITH APPLICATIONS TO COUNT DATA J.M.C. Santos Silva, ISEG/Universidade Tecnica de Lisboa, Lisbon, Portugal -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 09:00 - 10:30 ROOM B2-2097 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- UNEMPLOYMENT DURATION / POLICY EVALUTION Chairperson: H. Buddelmeyer , Germany JOB SEARCH AND HYPERBOLIC DISCOUNTING: STRUCTURAL ESTIMATION AND POLICY EVALUATION M.D. Paserman, Hebrew University, Economics, Jerusalem, Israel THE RELATIVE EFFICIENCY OF LABOR MARKET PROGRAMS: SWEDISH EXPERIENCE FROM THE 1990'S K. Richardson, K. Carling, Office of Labour Market, Policy Evaluation , Uppsala, Sweden RE-EMPLOYMENT DYNAMICS OF DISABLED WORKERS H. Buddelmeyer, IZA (Institute for the Study of Labor), Bonn, Germany -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 09:00 - 10:30 ROOM B2-2120 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- HOUSEHOLD BEHAVIOUR I Chairperson: A. Bergemann , Germany RETIREMENT BEHAVIOUR OF DUTCH ELDERLY HOUSEHOLDS M. Mastrogiacomo, Tinbegren Institute - Free University of Amsterdam, General Economics, Amsterdam, The Netherlands JOB STABILITY TRENDS, LAYOFF AND QUITS - AN EMPIRICAL ANALYSIS FOR WEST GERMANY A. Bergemann, A. Mertens, University of Mannheim, Department of Economics, Mannheim, Germany LEAVING PARENTS' HOME AND FINDING A PERMANENT CONTRACT: A BIVARIATE DURATION MODEL ANALYSIS S. Dufour-Kippelen, Universite Paris 9 - Dauphine, Laboratoire LEGOS, Paris, France -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 09:00 - 10:30 ROOM B2-4030 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- PRODUCTIVITY Chairperson: S. Perez-Duarte , France MEASURING PRODUCTIVITY GROWTH IN THE PRESENCE OF UNDESIRABLE OUTPUTS: A GIBBS SAMPLING APPROACH S.E. Atkinson, J.E. Dorfman, Dept. of Economics, University of Georgia, Athens, GA, USA WAGES, PRODUCTIVITY, AND WORKER CHARACTERISTICS: A FRENCH PERSPECTIVE S. Perez-Duarte, B. Crepon, N. Deniau, Research Department, CREST-INSEE, Malakoff, France MEASURING PRODUCTIVITY DYNAMICS WITH ENDOGENOUS CHOICE OF TECHNOLOGY AND CAPACITY UTILIZATION: AN APPLICATION TO AUTOMOBILE ASSEMBLY J. Van Biesebroeck, Stanford University, Department of Economics, Stanford CA, USA -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 09:00 - 10:30 ROOM B2-4021 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SPATIAL DEPENDENCE Chairperson: K. Desmet , Spain THE CHANGING SPATIAL DISTRIBUTION OF ECONOMIC ACTIVITY ACROSS U.S. COUNTIES K. Desmet, M. Fafchamps, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid, Economics Department, Getafe, Madrid, Spain THE EUROPEAN REGIONAL CONVERGENCE PROCESS, 1980-1995: DO SPATIAL REGIMES AND SPATIAL DEPENDENCE MATTER? C. Ertur, C. Baumont, J. Le Gallo, Pole d'Economie et de Gestion - Universite de Bourgogne, LATEC, Dijon, France HOW WIDE ARE EUROPEAN BORDERS? NEW EVIDENCE ON THE INTEGRATION EFFECTS OF MONETARY UNIONS A.A. Weber, G. Beck, Center for Financial Studies, Frankfurt/Main, Germany -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 09:00 - 10:30 ROOM B2-2055 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- JOB STABILITY AND EMPLOYMENT PROTECTION Chairperson: E. Rettore , Italy CHANGES IN JOB STABILITY AND THEIR CAUSES: AN EMPIRICAL ANALYSIS METHOD APPLIED TO FRANCE, 1982-2000 P. Givord, E. Maurin, INSEE, Malakoff, France LABOR MARKET INSTITUTIONS AND JOB STABILITY. A FIRM-LEVEL ANALYSIS OF LAYOFF RISK FOR HIGH AND LOW-SENIORITY WORKERS E. Maurin, D. Goux, CREST-INSEE, Departement de la Recherche, Malakoff, France ARE JUDGES BIASED BY LABOR MARKET CONDITIONS? THE SELECTION OF FIRING LITIGATIONS FOR TRIAL IN AN ITALIAN FIRM A. Ichino, E. Rettore, M. Polo, University di Padova, Scienze Statistiche, Padova, Italy -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 09:00 - 10:30 ROOM B1-273 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- DECENTRALIZED TRADE Chairperson: C. Ponsati , Italy MARKETS VS. NEGOTIATIONS Z. Neeman, N. Vulkan, N. Vulkan, Department of Economics, Hebrew University, Mount Scopus, Jerusalem, Israel BILATERAL COLLUSION IN MARKETS WITH DECENTRALIZED TRADE N. Burani, C. Ponsati, Universitat Autonoma de Barcelona, Departament d'Economia i d'Historia Economica, Modena MO, Italy PRICE IMPROVEMENTS IN FINANCIAL MARKETS G. Desgranges, T. Foucault, Universite de Cergy-Pontoise, Cergy-Pontoise, France PRICING, CONSUMER SEARCH AND MATURITY OF INTERNET MARKETS M. Janssen -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 09:00 - 10:30 ROOM B1-275 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- INNOVATION, DIFFUSION AND GROWTH Chairperson: R. Wendner , Austria BROTHERS IN RAMS: DIFFUSION OF THE PC AND THE NEW ECONOMY J. Haisken-Denew, C.M. Schmidt, GSOEP, DIW-Berlin, Berlin, Germany IS HUMAN CAPITAL THE KEY TO THE IT PRODUCTIVITY PARADOX? G. Gunnarsson, E. Mellander, E. Savvidou, Department of Business Studies and Informatics Molardalens University, Vasteras, Sweden SCIENCE VS. PROFIT IN RESEARCH - LESSONS FROM THE HUMAN GENOME PROJECT D. Siniscalco, C. Carraro, A. Pome, University of Torino and Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei, Department of Economics, Milan, MI, Italy KNOWLEDGE SPILLOVERS AND ECONOMIC GROWTH R. Wendner, Graz University, Economics, Graz, Austria -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 10:00 - 17:30 ROOM B2-2055 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- EMPIRICAL TRADE MODELS Chairperson: J. Fidrmuc , Austria RATIONAL EXPECTATIONS IN EXPORT PRICE SETTING ? AN EMPIRICAL STUDY I. Svendsen, Central Bank of Norway, Research Department, Oslo, Norway DISINTEGRATION AND TRADE J. Fidrmuc, J. Fidrmuc, University of Bonn, Center for European Integration Studies (ZEI), Bonn, Germany WAS NAFTA BEHIND THE MEXICAN EXPORTS BOOM (1994-2000)? D.G. Garces-Diaz, Banco de Mexico, Estudios Economicos, Mexico, D.F:, Mexico EXPECTATIONS IN EXPORT PRICE FORMATION: TESTS USING COINTEGRATED VAR MODELS P. Boug, A. Cappelen, A.R. Swensen, Statistics Norway, Research Department, Oslo, Norway -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 11:00 - 12:30 ROOM B1-263 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- INVITED LECTURE Chairperson: O.B. Linton , UK COMPUND AUTOREGRESSIVE MODELS, WITH FINANCIAL APPLICATIONS C. Gourieroux, CREST-INSEE, Paris, France Discussant: E. Sentana, CEMFI, Madrid, Spain -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 11:00 - 12:30 ROOM B2-1031 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- INVITED LECTURE COORDINATION, COMMUNICATION AND COMMON KNOWLEDGE S. Morris, Yale University, New Haven, CT, USA Discussant: R. Spiegler, Institute for Advanced Study, Princeton, NJ, USA -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 14:00 - 15:30 ROOM B1-121 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- APPLIED GENERAL EQUILIBRIUM MODELS Chairperson: A.M. Iregui , Colombia THE UNDERGROUND ECONOMY IN THE CZECH REPUBLIC: DYNAMIC GENERAL EQUILIBRIUM MODELING AND POLICY ANALYSIS M. Dupaigne, CEPREMAP, Paris, France THE AGRICULTURAL POLICY REFORM IN SWITERLAND: AN ASSESSMENT OF THE AGRICULTURE MULTI-FUNCTIONALITY L. Cretegny, University of Lausanne, Department of Economics, Dorigny, Vaud, Switzerland TAX EXPORTING: AN ANALYSIS USING A MULTIREGIONAL CGE MODEL A.M. Iregui, Banco de la Republica, Estudios Economicos, Bogota, Colombia, Colombia -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 14:00 - 15:30 ROOM B1-122 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- BOUNDED RATIONALITY AND EQUILIBRIUM Chairperson: R. Spiegler , USA HOW TO CHOOSE - A BOUNDEDLY RATIONAL APPROACH TO REPEATED DECISION MAKING K.H. Schlag, Department of Economics, European University Institute, San Domenico di Fiesole, Italy INFINITE-HORIZON GAMES WITH PROCEDURALLY RATIONAL PLAYERS R. Spiegler, Institute for Advanced Study, School of Social Science, Princeton, NJ, USA EQUILIBRIA WITH OPTIMAL MISSPECIFIED BELIEFS AND RATIONAL EXPECTATIONS EQUILIBRIUM P.O. Weill, S.M. Gregoir, Stanford University, Economics, Stanford CA, USA, France -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 14:00 - 15:30 ROOM B1-123 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ENDOGENOUS GROWTH I Chairperson: J. Tong , UK A STRUCTURAL MODEL OF TECHNOLOGY-HUMAN CAPITAL COMPLEMENTARITY AND THE MECHANICS OF CATCHING-UP F. Perez-Sebastian, C. Papageorgiou, Universidad de Alicante, Fundamentos del Analisis Economico, San Vicente del Raspeig, Alicante, Spain TWIN ENGINES: QUALITY COMPETITION, MARKET STRUCTURE AND ENDOGENOUS GROWTH J. Tong, London School of Economics, Economics, London, UK TWIN ENGINES OF GROWTH J. Roberts, H. Lloyd-Ellis, University of Toronto, Economics Dept., Toronto ON, Canada TOO LITTLE OR TOO MUCH R&D? C. Groth, M. Alvarez, Institute of Economics, University of Copenhagen, Copenhagen, Denmark -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 14:00 - 15:30 ROOM B1-125 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- MARKET MICROSTRUCTURE Chairperson: B.B. Rindi , Italy MINIMUM QUOTE SIZE AND MARKET QUALITY B. Rindi, Bocconi University, Economics, Milan, Italy WHEN PRICE-STABILISATION REGULATION GENERATES IPO-MISPRICING B. Bartling, A. Park, University of Munich, Department of Economics, Cambridge, UK COMPETITION FOR ORDER FLOW AS A COORDINATION GAME F. Heinemann, J. Donges, Goethe-University Frankfurt am Main, Economics and Business Administration, Frankfurt am Main, Germany -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 14:00 - 15:30 ROOM B1-126 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- PRODUCTION THEORY Chairperson: T. Post , The Netherlands COSTLY CAPITAL REALLOCATION AND ENERGY USE L.A. Puch, A. Diaz, D. Guillo, Universidad Complutense de Madrid, Economca Cuantitativa, Madrid, Madrid, Spain TESTING FOR PRODUCTIVE EFFICIENCY WITH ERRORS-IN-VARIABLES T. Post, T. Kuosmanen, S. Scholtes, Department of Finance, Erasmus University, Rotterdam, The Netherlands GLOBAL FLEXIBILITY OF LINEARLY HOMOGENEOUS CONVEX FUNCTIONS O. Hoveid, Norw. Ag. Econ. Res. Inst., Oslo, Norway ON THE CHOICE OF MODERN MANUFACTURING TECHNOLOGY IN THE REAL WORLD B. Allen, The Uniersity of Minnesota, Department of Economics, Minneapolis MN, USA -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 14:00 - 15:30 ROOM B1-129 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- REGIONAL POLICY Chairperson: K. Staal , The Netherlands THE POLITICAL ECONOMY OF REGIONALISM. K. Staal, S. Goyal, Tinbergen Institute, Econometrie & Besliskunde, Rotterdam, Zuid Holland, The Netherlands ENDOGENOUS REGIONAL POLICY IN A MODEL OF AGGLOMERATION F. Robert-Nicoud, F.R.G. Sbergami, London School of Economics, CEP, London, UK INTER-REGIONAL ASSISTANCE AND REGIONAL COMMITMENT: EXTERNALITIES, DEBT, SHOCK PERSISTENCE AND SHOCK CORRELATION P.M. Picard, University of Manchester, School of Economic Studies, Manchester, UK -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 14:00 - 15:30 ROOM B1-231 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SCALING RELATIONSHIPS IN CORPORTE GROWTH Chairperson: F. Pammolli , Italy THE SCALING OF GROWTH PROCESSES: ON THE DYNAMICS OF BUSINESS FIRMS F. Pammolli, University of Siena, Dept. of Economics, Siena, Italy SCALE INVARIANCE AND UNIVERSALITY IN ECONOMIC PHENOMENA H.E. Stanley THE VARIANCE OF FIRM GROWTH RATES: THE 'SCALING PUZZLE' J. Sutton, London School of Economics, STICERD, London, UK -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 14:00 - 15:30 ROOM B1-232 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TRADE Chairperson: M.P. Moore , USA UNEMPLOYMENT IN A TWO-SECTOR MODEL OF INTERNATIONAL TRADE M.P. Moore, P. Ranjan, Department of Economics, University of California, Irvine CA, USA COMPLEMENTARITY, GROWTH AND TRADE A.H. Turunen-Red, S.M.S. Honkapohja, University of New Orleans, Economics and Finance, Prairieville, Louisiana, USA THE POLITICAL ECONOMY OF INTERNATIONAL FACTOR MOBILITY G. Willmann, G. Facchini, Kiel University, Dept of Economics, Kiel, SH, Germany -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 14:00 - 15:30 ROOM B1-306 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- UNEMPLOYMENT Chairperson: J. Lingens , Germany ACTIVE LABOUR MARKET PROGRAMMES, EDUCATION AND UNEMPLOYMENT Y. Fukushima, Stockholm University, Economics, Stockholm, Sweden TECHNOLOGICAL CHANGE, LABOR MARKET INSTITUTIONS AND INEQUALITY D. Drouot, Universite d'Evry, Economics, Evry, France THE IMPACT OF A UNIONISED LABOUR MARKET IN A SCHUMPETERIAN GROWTH MODEL J. Lingens, University of Kassel, Economics, Kassel, Germany THE IMPACT OF LABOR MARKET REFORMS ON CAPITAL FLOWS, WAGES AND UNEMPLOYMENT T. Beissinger, University of Regensburg, Department of Economics, Regensburg, Germany -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 14:00 - 15:30 ROOM B2-2024 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- GMM-BASED INFERENCE Chairperson: F. Windmeijer , UK FINITE SAMPLE INFERENCE FOR GMM ESTIMATORS IN LINEAR PANEL DATA MODELS F. Windmeijer, S. Bond, Institute for Fiscal Studies, London, UK ALTERNATIVE ESTIMATION METHODS FOR MOMENT CONDITION MODELS: SMALL SAMPLE EVIDENCE J.J.S. Ramalho, University of Bristol, Economics, Bristol, UK TESTING PARAMETERS IN GMM WITHOUT ASSUMING THAT THEY ARE IDENTIFIED F.R. Kleibergen, University of Amsterdam, Department of Quantitative Economics, Amsterdam, The Netherlands -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 14:00 - 15:30 ROOM B2-2064 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- LONG MEMORY I Chairperson: J. Breitung , Germany INFERENCE ON THE COINTEGRATION RANK IN FRACTIONALLY COINTEGRATED SYSTEMS J. Breitung, U. Hassler, Humboldt-University Berlin, Institute of Statistics and Econometrics, Berlin, Germany SOME ASYMPTOTIC INFERENCE RESULTS FOR MULTIVARIATE LONG-MEMORY PROCESSES F. Marmol, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid, Madrid, Spain TESTING FOR STRUCTURAL CHANGE IN THE PRESENCE OF LONG MEMORY W. Kraemer, Universitat Dortmund, Germany -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 14:00 - 15:30 ROOM B2-2106 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ASSET PRICING TESTS Chairperson: L. Cappiello , USA A CONDITIONAL MULTI-ASSET INTERTEMPORAL CAPM WITH SWITCHING PRICES OF RISK L. Cappiello, NYU, Salomon Center, Stern School of Business, Finance, New York NY, USA EXACT SIMULATION-BASED TESTS IN MULTIVARIATE REGRESSIONS: APPLICATIONS TO ASSET PRICING MODELS L. Khalaf, M.C. Beaulieu, J.M. Dufour, University Laval, Economics, Quebec, Canada SPANNING TESTS IN PORTFOLIO AND STOCHASTIC DISCOUNT FACTOR MEAN-VARIANCE FRONTIERS: A UNIFYING APPROACH F. Penaranda, CEMFI, Madrid, Spain -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 14:00 - 15:30 ROOM B2-2013 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- NONLINEAR TIME SERIES AND THE BUSINESS CYCLE Chairperson: M. Sensier , UK SEASONALITY AND MARKOV SWITCHING IN AN UNOBSERVED COMPONENT MODEL OF US GDP R.E. Luginbuhl, A.F. De Vos, Vrije Universiteit, Econometrics, Amsterdam, The Netherlands ASYMMETRIC INTEREST RATE EFFECTS FOR THE UK REAL ECONOMY M. Sensier, D.R. Osborn, N. Ocal, University of Manchester, School of Economic Studies, Manchester, UK CAN OIL SHOCKS EXPLAIN ASYMMETRIES IN THE US BUSINESS CYCLE? M.P. Clements, H.M. Krolzig, Warwick University, Economics Dept., Coventry, UK -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 14:00 - 15:30 ROOM B2-2044 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- COINTEGRATION: EXCHANGE RATES Chairperson: E. Bacchiocchi , Italy EXPECTATIONS AND THE BLACK MARKET PREMIUM;: EVIDENCE FROM THE PACIFIC BASIN COUNTRIES G.P. Kouretas, Department of Economics, University of Crete, University Campus, Rethymno, Greece MODELLING THE FF/DM RATE BY THRESHOLD COINTEGRATION ANALYSIS M. Baghli, Banque de France, DGEI, Paris, France TESTING THE PPP THROUGH I(2) COINTEGRATION TECHNIQUES E. Bacchiocchi, L. Fanelli, University of Bologna, Statistical Science, Bologna, Italy -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 14:00 - 15:30 ROOM B2-2055 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- AUCTIONS Chairperson: R. Preget , France CHARACTERIZING AND FORECASTING MARKET BID FUNCTIONS IN TREASURY BILL AUCTIONS R. Preget, P. Waelbroeck, CREST, LEI, Paris, France ECONOMETRICS FOR AUCTIONS OF SHARES : CONSTRAINED STRATEGIC EQUILIBRIUM AND TREASURY AUCTIONS E. Sbai, University of Toulouse Gremaq, Toulouse, France HUNTING FOR COLLUSIONS IN PROCUREMENT AUCTIONS M. Eklof, Department of Economics, Uppsala University, Uppsala,, Sweden -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 14:00 - 15:30 ROOM B2-2097 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- JOB SEARCH Chairperson: A. Van Vuuren , The Netherlands JOB SEARCH METHODS AND WAGE EFFICIENCY M. Sabatier, CERDI, Clermont-FD, France JOB SEARCH WITH NONPARTICIPATION B. Van Der Klaauw, P. Frijters, Free University Amsterdam, Department of Economics, Amsterdam, The Netherlands THE ASYMPTOTIC DISTRIBUTION OF THE SEMIPARAMETRIC ESTIMATION OF A SEARCH MODEL USING ACCEPTANCE PROBABILITIES A. Van Vuuren, Department of Economics, Vrije Universiteit, Amsterdam, The Netherlands -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 14:00 - 15:30 ROOM B2-2120 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- EXPECTATIONS AND EXPERIMENTAL ECONOMICS Chairperson: P.G. Moffatt , UK TIME PREFERENCE AND HEURISTICS J.K. Winter, D. Houser, University of Mannheim, Mannheim, Germany ARE PROPERTY-CASUALTY RESERVES BIASED? H.J. Bierens, D.F. Bradford, Pennsylvania State University, Department of Economics, Pennsylvania, USA D-OPTIMAL DESIGN OF EXPERIMENTS IN ECONOMICS P.G. Moffatt, University of East Anglia, UK -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 14:00 - 15:30 ROOM B2-4030 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- CONSUMPTION / DEMAND ANALYSIS Chairperson: M.A. Diaye , France ESTIMATING NONSEPARABLE PREFERENCE SPECIFICATIONS FOR ASSET MARKET PARTICIPANTS K. Jacobs, Faculty of Management, McGill University, Montreal QB, Canada HOW WELL DO HOUSEHOLDS COPE WITH RISK THROUGH SAVINGS AND PORTFOLIO ADJUSTMENT? EVIDENCE FROM RURAL INDIA K. Imai, St. Antony's College, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK THE WORLD ACCORDING GARP: NON-PARAMETRIC TESTS OF DEMAND THEORY AND RATIONAL BEHAVIOR M.A. Diaye, Universite d'Evry Val D'essone, France -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 14:00 - 15:30 ROOM B2-2060 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- DISCRETE CHOICE PANEL DATA ANALYSIS Chairperson: A. Giraldo , Italy OWNERSHIP OF STOCKS AND MUTUAL FUNDS: A PANEL DATA ANALYSIS R.J. Alessie, S. Hochguertel, A. Van Soest, Free University Amsterdam, Economics Department, Amsterdam, The Netherlands WAGE DIFFERENTIALS AND MOBILITY IN THE URBAN LABOR MARKET: A PANEL DATA ANALYSIS FOR MEXICO X. Gong, A. Van Soest, IZA, Bonn, Germany THE PERSISTENCE OF POVERTY: TRUE STATE DEPENDENCE OR UNOBSERVED HETEROGENEITY? SOME EVIDENCE FOR THE ITALIAN SURVEY ON HOUSEHOLD INCOME AND WEALTH A. Giraldo, Universita de Padova, Italy -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 14:00 - 15:30 ROOM B2-4021 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- WAGE DIFFERENTIALS / TRADE UNIONS Chairperson: F.N. Tournadre , France OVERTIME WORK, OVERTIME COMPENSATION AND THE DISTRIBUTION OF ECONOMIC WELL-BEING.EVIDENCE FOR WEST GERMANY AND GREAT BRITAIN M. Pannenberg, G.G. Wagner, DIW Berlin, Longitudinal Data and Microanalysis, Berlin, Germany GENDER WAGE DIFFERENCES IN WEST GERMANY: A COHORT ANALYSIS B. Fitzenberger, G. Wunderlich, G. Wunderlich, Department of Economics, University of Mannheim, Mannheim, Germany UNION'S HETEROGENEITY & INFORMATION SPILLOVER EFFECTS: ECONOMETRIC ANALYSIS ON FRENCH STRIKES F.N. Tournadre, GATE & University of Lyon, Economics, Ecully, France TRADE UNIONS AND WAGES: AN ECONOMETRIC ANALYSIS S. Madheswaran, K.R. Shanmugam, Gokhale Institute of Politics and Economics, Economics Department, Pune, Maharashtra, India -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 14:00 - 15:30 ROOM B1-273 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- GENERAL EQUILIBRIUM Chairperson: H. Kremers , The Netherlands CONTRACTS AND DOMINATION IN INCOMPLETE MARKETS V. Marakulin, Sobolev Institute of Mathematics, Novosibirsk, Russia EXISTENCE AND WELFARE PROPERTIES OF EQUILIBRIUM IN AN EXCHANGE ECONOMY WITH MULTIPLE DIVISIBLE, INDIVISIBLE COMMODITIES AND LINEAR PRODUCTION TECHNOLOGIES G. Van Der Laan, D. Talman, Z. Yang, Free University, Dept. of Econometrics, Amsterdam, The Netherlands AN ADJUSTMENT PROCESS FOR NONCONVEX PRODUCTION ECONOMIESS H. Kremers, A. Van Den Elzen, Free University, Department of Spatial Economics, Amsterdam, The Netherlands ENVIRONMENTAL REGULATION AND INTERNATIONAL TRADE: A GENERAL EQUILIBRIUM APPROACH C.A. Withagen, C. Elbers, Tilburg University/Free University, Economics, Tilburg, The Netherlands -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 14:00 - 17:50 ROOM B1-307 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- MACROECONOMIC POLICY Chairperson: M. Weder , Germany FISCAL POLICY IN THE NEW NEOCLASSICAL SYNTHESIS L. Linnemann, A. Schabert, University of Cologne, Dept. of Economics (Staatswiss. Seminar), Koeln, Germany INFLATION TAXES, FINANCIAL INTERMEDIATION, AND HOME PRODUCTION M.H. Marquis, Research Department, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, San Francisco CA, USA THE ANATOMY OF THE GREAT DEPRESSION: DID SUNSPOTS MATTER? M. Weder, S.G. Harrison, Humboldt University Berlin, Economics, Berlin, Germany -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 16:00 - 17:30 ROOM B1-121 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- BANKING I Chairperson: C. Hainz , Germany THE USE OF SUBCONTRACTING CONTRACT IN THE CREDIT RELATIONSHIP N. Lepape, F. Bastie, UFR Economie (Gemma), Universite de Caen, Caen, France EFFECTS OF BANK INSOLVENCY AND STRATEGIC UNCERTAINTY ON CORPORATE RESTRUCTURING IN TRANSITION ECONOMIES C. Hainz, Department of Economics, University of Munich, Munich, Germany SOCIAL NETWORKS BASED LENDING, BANKS, AND CREDIT RATIONING IN COTE D'IVOIRE M. Dia, J.P. Azam, B. Biais, C. Maurel, University of Toulouse, ARQADE, Toulouse, France -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 16:00 - 17:30 ROOM B1-122 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- BARGAINING Chairperson: A. Kritikos , Germany THE IRRELEVANCE OF BARGAINING POWER IN SIDE-CONTRACTING M. Cella, London School of Economics, Economics, London, UK DELAYS IN RENEWAL OF LABOR CONTRACTS: THEORY AND EVIDENCE L. Danziger, S. Neuman, Department of Economics, York University, Toronto ON, Canada THE IMPACT OF COMPULSORY ARBITRATION ON BARGAINING BEHAVIOUR A. Kritikos, Europe-University Viadrina, Dept. of Economics, Frankfurt an der Oder, Germany OPTIMAL IMPERFECT COMMITMENTS IN A NEGOTIATION WITH A DEADLINE A. Cunyat, University of Valencia, Analisi Economica, Valencia, Spain -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 16:00 - 17:30 ROOM B1-123 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- COOPERATIVE GAMES AND THE CORE Chairperson: F. Forges , France RECURSIVE CORE OF A DIFFERENTIAL COALITIONAL OLG GAME M. Horniacek, Faculty of Electrical Engineering and Information Technology, Slovak University of Technology, Department of Economics and Management, Bratislava, Slovak Republic THE STABLE DEMAND SET: GENERAL CHARACTERIZATION AND APPLICATION TO WEIGHTED MAJORITY GAMES M. Montero, M. Morelli, University of Dortmund, Department of Economics (Micro), Dortmund, Germany THE EX ANTE INCENTIVE COMPATIBLE CORE IN THE ABSENCE OF WEALTH EFFECTS F. Forges, J.F. Mertens, R. Vohra, University de Cergy-Pontoise, Tema, Cergy-Pontoise, France -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 16:00 - 17:30 ROOM B1-125 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ENDOGENOUS GROWTH II Chairperson: U. Sunde , Germany HUMAN CAPITAL ACCUMULATION, EDUCATION AND EARNINGS INEQUALITY U. Sunde, IZA, Research, Bonn, Germany GROWTH, UNEMPLOYMENT AND PUBLIC CAPITAL V. Sorolla, X. Raurich, Bellaterra, Spain, University of Girona, Economia, Girona, Spain COMPARING AUTOMATIC STABILIZERS AND OPTIMAL TAXATION IN A STOCHASTIC ENDOGENOUS GROWTH MODEL T.P. Maury, MODEM, Nanterre, France ENDOGENOUS GROWTH AND CONVERGENCE WITH INTERTEMPORALLY DEPENDENT PREFERENCES P. Pagano, G. Ferraguto, Bank of Italy, Research Department, Rome, Italy -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 16:00 - 17:30 ROOM B1-126 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- EXCHANGE RATES I Chairperson: L. Patureau , France OVERSHOOTING AND THE EXCHANGE RATE DISCONNECT PUZZLE : A REAPPRAISAL L. Patureau, J.O. Hairault, T. Sopraseuth, University of Paris-I, EUREQua, Paris, France MARK-UPS AND THE REAL EXCHANGE RATE J. Coto-Martinez, Department of Economics, University of East Anglia, SOC, Norwich, UK HOW DOES THE VOLATILITY RISK PREMIUM AFFECT THE INFORMATIONALCONTENT OF CURRENCY OPTIONS? P. Breuer, International Monetary Fund Research, Washington DC, USA -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 16:00 - 17:30 ROOM B1-129 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- MANAGERIAL INCENTIVES Chairperson: M. Raith , USA BOARD EFFICIENCY AND INTERNAL CORPORATE CONTROL MECHANISM A. Luporini, C. Graziano, Universita di Trieste, Scienze Economiche e Statistiche, Trieste, Italy COMPETITION, RISK AND MANAGERIAL INCENTIVES M. Raith, University of Chicago, Graduate School of Business, Chicago, IL, USA SENSITIVITY OF CEO PAY TO SHAREHOLDER WEALTH IN A DYNAMIC AGENCY MODEL G.L. Clementi, T.F. Cooley, Graduate School of Industrial Administration, Carnegie Mellon University, Pittsburgh PA, USA -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 16:00 - 17:30 ROOM B1-231 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- PENSIONS Chairperson: V. Touze , France SOCIAL SECURITY IN STOCHASTIC ECONOMY V. Touze, A. Mele, Fondation Nationale des Sciences Politiques, OFCE, Paris, France SOCIAL SECURITY AND MIGRATION WITH ENDOGENOUS SKILL UPGRADING A. Casarico, C. Devillanova, University Bocconi, Economics Dept, Milan, Italy PAY-AS-YOU-GO SOCIAL SECURITY AND THE DISTRIBUTION OF ALTRUISTIC TRANSFERS J. Caballe, L. Fuster, Dept. d'Economia i d'Historia Economica, Universitat Autonoma de Barcelona, Barcelona, Spain WHAT ACCOUNTS FOR THE REDUCTION IN THE LABOR MARKET PARTICIPATION OF OLD OVER THE PERIOD 60-95? G. Mahieu, Universite Catholique de Louvain, Department of Economics and IRES, Louvain-la-Neuve, Belgium -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 16:00 - 17:30 ROOM B1-232 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- PRINCIPAL-AGENT ANALYSIS Chairperson: H.L.A. Moreira , Brazil INFORMATION ACQUISITION AND RISK MANAGEMENT. A PRINCIPAL-AGENT ANALYSIS. J.F. Bierbaum, Humboldt-University Berlin, Economics, Berlin, Germany ADVERSE SELECTION PROBLEMS WITHOUT THE SPENCE-MIRRLEES CONDITION H.L.A. Moreira, A. Araujo, PUC-Rio, Economics, Rio de Janeiro, Rio de Janeiro, Brazil MORAL HAZRD AND ADEVERSE SELECTION IN A PRINCIPAL AGENT MODEL: SOME RESULTS M.C. Fagart, CREST,University of Rouen, Economics, Ornex, France -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 16:00 - 17:30 ROOM B1-306 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SEARCH Chairperson: R. Van Der Noll , The Netherlands MIDDLEMEN AS A SEPARATING DEVICE V. Bignon, R. Breton, CREA, Ecole Polytechnique, Paris, France E-COMMERCE AND CHANNEL SUBSTITUTION FOR DIFFERENTIATED PRODUCTS R. Van Der Noll, M.C.W. Janssen, Tinbergen Institute, Rotterdam, The Netherlands ELECTRONIC COMMERCE, CONSUMER SEARCH AND RETAILING COST REDUCTION P. Pereira, C. Mazon, C. Mazon, Fundamentos del Analisis Economico II, Universidad Complutense de Madrid, Madrid, Spain -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 16:00 - 17:30 ROOM B2-2024 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- CONTINUOUS TIME MODELS Chairperson: F. Fornari , Italy A SIMPLE APPROACH TO THE ESTIMATION OF CONTINUOUS TIME CEV STOCHASTIC VOLATILITY MODELS OF THE SHORT-TERM RATE F. Fornari, A. Mele, Bank of Italy, Research, Roma, Italy IDENTIFICATION AND INFERENCE FOR COINTEGRATED AND ERGODIC GAUSSIAN DIFFUSIONS A.C. Rahbek, M. Kessler, Nuffield College, Economics, Oxford, UK EFFICIENT ESTIMATION OF MARKOV MODELS WHERE THE TRANSITION DENSITY IS UNKNOWN G.J. Jiang, J.L. Knight, Department of Finance, York University, Toronto ON, Canada -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 16:00 - 17:30 ROOM B2-2064 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- COINTEGRATION: ESTIMATION AND TESTING Chairperson: M. Wagner , Switzerland MINIMUM DISTANCE ESTIMATION OF NONSTATIONARY TIME SERIES MODELS F. Schorfheide, H.R. Moon, University of Pennsylvania, Economics, Philadelphia PA, USA STATE SPACE CANONICAL FORM M. Wagner, D. Bauer, University of Bern, Department of Economics, Bern, Switzerland MARGINAL LIKELIHOOD AND UNIT ROOTS M.K. Francke, A.F. De Vos, Vrije Universiteit, Econometrics Department, Amsterdam, The Netherlands -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 16:00 - 17:30 ROOM B2-2106 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- MONETARY POLICY RULES Chairperson: E. Schaling , South Africa INFLATION TARGETING UNDER ASYMMETRIC PREFERENCES F. Ruge-Murcia, Department of Economics, University of Montreal, Montreal QB, Canada INTEREST RATE STEPPING REVISITED: INFLATION FORECAST TARGETING IN A DISCRETE TIME MENU COST MODEL R. Nkomo, E. Schaling, South Africa, Department of Economics, Rand Afrikaans University, Auckland Park, Gauteng, South Africa WHAT TYPE OF MODELS SHOULD WE USE IN MONETARY POLICY ANALYSIS? A QUANTITATIVE INVESTIGATION J.L. Linde, Sveriges Riksbank, Research Department, Stockholm, Sweden EVALUATING CHANGES IN THE BANK OF SPAIN'S INTERVENTIONAL: AN ALTERNATIVE APPROACH USING MARKED POINT PROCESSES R. Maria-Dolores, Universidad de Murcia, Spain -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 16:00 - 17:30 ROOM B2-2060 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TREATMENT EFFECTS AND PROGRAM EVALUATION Chairperson: R. Miquel , Switzerland A POTENTIAL OUTCOME APPROACH TO DYNAMIC PROGRAMME EVALUATION - PART I IDENTIFICATION R. Miquel, M. Lechner, University of St. Gallen, SIAW, St. Gallen, Switzerland A NOTE ON THE COMMON SUPPORT PROBLEM IN APPLIED EVALUATION STUDIES M. Lechner, University of St. Gallen, SIAW, St. Gallen, Switzerland DOES MATCHING OVERCOME LALONDE'S CRITIQUE OF NONEXPERIMENTAL ESTIMATORS? J. Smith, University of Western Ontario, Canada -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 16:00 - 17:30 ROOM B2-2013 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- DYNAMIC PANEL DATA Chairperson: H. Kruiniger , UK WEAK EXOGENEITY IN A DYNAMIC PANEL DATA MODEL J.F. Kiviet, M.J.G. Bun, University of Amsterdam, Quantitative Economics, Amsterdam, The Netherlands GMM ESTIMATION OF DYNAMIC PANEL DATA MODELS WITH PERSISTENT DATA H. Kruiniger, Queen Mary, University of London, Economics, London, UK BIAS CORRECTED INSTRUMENTAL VARIABLES ESTIMATION FOR DYNAMIC PANEL MODELS WITH FIXED EFFECTS G.M. Kuersteiner, J. Hahn, J. Hausman, Department of Economics, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge MA, USA -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 16:00 - 17:30 ROOM B2-2044 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- BUSINESS CYCLES I Chairperson: G. Cubadda , Italy THE ROLE OF COMMON CYCLICAL FEATURES FOR COMPOSITE LEADING INDICATOR BUILDING G. Cubadda, A.W. Hecq, Universita del Molise, Dipartimento SEGeS, Roma, Italy SHARP FILTERS FOR BUSINESS-CYCLE ANALYSIS S.D.G. Pollock, Department of Economics, Queen Mary College, London, UK SOME ECONOMETRIC PROBLEMS ARISING FROM REGRESSIONS WITH CYCLICAL STATE VARIABLES D. Harding, A.R. Pagan, University of Melbourne, Melbourne Institute, Brunswick, Victoria, Australia -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 16:00 - 17:30 ROOM B2-2097 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- OCCUPATIONAL CHOICE: SELF EMPLOYMENT Chairperson: S.C. Parker , UK IS INEQUALITY BAD FOR BUSINESS? A. Mesnard, M. Ravallion, Department of Economics, University of Toulouse, Arqade, Toulouse, France RISK AVERSION, ETHNICITY AND ENTREPRENEURSHIP IN COTE D'IVOIRE T. Kamionka, J.P. Azam, B. Biais, CNRS and CREST, Malakoff, France THE RETIREMENT BEHAVIOUR OF THE SELF-EMPLOYED IN BRITAIN S.C. Parker, J. Rougier, University of Durham, Economics & Finance, Durham, UK -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 16:00 - 17:30 ROOM B2-2120 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- LIMITED DEPENDENT VARIABLES Chairperson: X. De Luna , Sweden GRAPHICAL DIAGNOSTICS OF ENDOGENEITY X. De Luna, P. Johansson, Ume University, Department of Economics, Ume, Sweden TESTING PREDICTIVE PERFORMANCE OF BINARY CHOICE MODELS B. Melenberg, B. Donkers, Tilburg University, Econometrics, Tilburg, The Netherlands A SIMPLE DYNAMIC FOR LIMITED DEPENDENT VARIABLES F. Gerhard, Nuffield College, Oxford, UK MODELING SAMPLE SELECTION RESULTING FROM TARGET SELECTION B. Donkers, Erasmus University Rotterdam, The Netherlands -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 16:00 - 17:30 ROOM B2-4030 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- INCOME DISTRIBUTION AND MOLIBITY Chairperson: G.J. Anderson , Canada A LARGE DEVIATION APPROACH TO THE MEASUREMENT OF MOBILITY K. Neusser, R. Aebi, P. Steiner, Institute of Economics, University of Berne, Bern, Switzerland IMPROVING MODELS OF INCOME DYNAMICS USING CROSS-SECTION INFORMATION P. Steiner, K. Neusser, R. Aebi, Volkswirtschaftliches Institut, & Okonometrie, Bern, Switzerland TOWARD AN EMPIRICAL ANALYSIS OF POLARIZATION G.J. Anderson, Dept. of Economics, University of Toronto, Toronto ON, Canada -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 16:00 - 17:30 ROOM B2-4021 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- INVESTMENT Chairperson: B. Hobijn , USA INVESTMENT AND MONETARY POLICY IN THE EURO AREA P.R.D. Vermeulen, B. Mojon, B. Mojon, F. Smets, F. Smets, Directorate General Research, European Central Bank, Frankfurt am Main, Germany EMBODIMENT IN U.S. MANUFACTURING B. Hobijn, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, Domestic Research, New York NY, USA NOISY SHARE PRICES AND THE Q MODEL OF INVESTMENT S.R. Bond, J.G. Cummins, Institute for Fiscal Studies, London, UK -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Monday, August 27, 2001 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 09:00 - 10:30 ROOM B1-121 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ASSET PRICING I Chairperson: H.J. Roche , Mexico ASSET PRICES IN A BINOMIAL LATTICE EQUILIBRIUM MODEL WITH BAYESIAN LEARNING M. Guidolin, A. Timmermann, University of Virginia, Economics, Charlottesville, VA, USA THE INFLUENCE OF HETEROGENEOUS PREFERENCES ON ASSET PRICES IN AN INCOMPLETE MARKET MODEL F. Niehaus, Wirtschaftswissenschaft, University of Hannover, Hannover, Germany ASSET PRICING IN A LUCAS ECONOMY WITH RECURSIVE UTILITY HETEROGENOUS AGENTS H.J. Roche, ITAM, Business, Mexico City, Mexico -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 09:00 - 10:30 ROOM B1-122 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- AUCTIONS II Chairperson: R. Repullo , Spain SECOND-PRICE COMMON-VALUE AUCTIONS UNDER MULTIDIMENSIONAL UNCERTAINTY L. Pechlivanos, M.A. De Frutos, Foundation for Economic & Industrial Research, Athens, Greece BIDDING AT SEQUENTIAL FIRST-PRICE AUCTIONS T. Neugebauer, P. Pezanis-Christou, Department of Economics, University of York, York, UK A MODEL OF THE OPEN MARKET OPERATIONS OF THE EUROPEAN CENTRAL BANK R. Repullo, J. Ayuso, CEMFI, Madrid, Spain -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 09:00 - 10:30 ROOM B1-123 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- BANKING II Chairperson: H.C. Hoppe , Germany WHAT DRIVES THE TURNOVER RATIO D. Heller, Y. Lengwiler, Swiss National Bank, Zuerich, Switzerland CREDITWORTHINESS TESTS AND SPATIAL BANKING COMPETITION H.C. Hoppe, U. Lehmann-Grube, Universitat Hamburg, Institut fur Allokation und Wettbewerb, Hamburg, Germany THE STRUCTURE OF BANK LENDING; ENDOGENOUS MONITORING AND LOAN RATES E. Carletti, Department of Economics, University Mannheim, Mannheim, Germany -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 09:00 - 10:30 ROOM B1-125 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- COMMON KNOWLEDGE Chairperson: N. Dimitri , Italy HETEROGENOUS AWARENESS AND THE POSSIBILITY OF AGREEMENT C. Ewerhart, Department of Economics, University of Mannheim, Frankfurt a/Main, Germany WHEN DOES COMMON ASSUMPTION OF RATIONALITY LEAD TO NASH EQUILIBRIUM? A.Y. Friedenberg, A. Brandenburger, Political Economy and Government, Harvard University, Dept. of Economics, Cambridge, MA, USA AUDIT MISPERCEPTION, ENFORCEMENT COST AND TAX COMPLIANCE Y. Kim, Yonsei University, Economics, Seoul, South Korea COORDINATION IN AN E-MAIL GAME WITHOUT MUTUAL KNOWLEDGE N. Dimitri, University of Siena, Department of Political Economics, Siena, Italy -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 09:00 - 10:30 ROOM B1-126 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- CONTRACT THEORY Chairperson: S. Souam , France SEQUENTIAL SCREENING, RENEGOTIATION AND INCOMPLETENESS OF CONTRACTS S.K. Reiche, Universite de Toulouse, IDEI, Toulouse, France OPTIMAL CONTRACT WITH RANDOM AUDITING S. Souam, M.C. Fagart, CREST, University of Tours, Economics Dept., Paris, France ASYMMETRIC INFORMATION, BOUNDED RATIONALITY, AND INCOMPLETE CONTRACTS J. Lee, University of Cambridge, Economics and Politics, Cambridge, UK -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 09:00 - 10:30 ROOM B1-129 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- HOUSING Chairperson: S. Rady , Germany RENTAL HOUSING IS BETTER FOR LABOR MOBILITY THAN OCCUPATION - AN INTERTEMPORAL MODEL WITH LIQUIDITY CONSTRAINTS H. Kauppi, M. Haavio, University of Helsinki, Department of Economics, Helsinki, Finland HOUSING MARKET DYNAMICS: ON THE CONTRIBUTION OF INCOME SHOCKS AND CREDIT CONSTRAINTS S. Rady, F. Ortalo-Magne, University of Munich, Department of Economics, Munich, Germany -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 09:00 - 10:30 ROOM B1-231 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- KNIGHTIAN UNCERTAINTY Chairperson: S. Mukerji , UK A KEYNESIAN MODEL UNDER KNIGHTIAN UNCERTAINTY S.I. Fukuda, University of Tokyo, Economics, Tokyo, Japan AMBIGUITY AVERSION AND THE ABSENCE OF INDEXED DEBT S. Mukerji, J.M. Tallon, Oxford University, Economics, Oxford, UK INDECISION THEORY: EXPLAINING SELECTIVE ABSTENTION IN MULTIPLE ELECTIONS P. Ghirardato, Caltech, HSS, Pasadena CA, USA -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 09:00 - 10:30 ROOM B1-232 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- LABOUR II Chairperson: E. Toulemonde , Belgium THE ORGANIZATION OF WORK AND WAGE PRESSURE IN THE SECONDARY LABOR MARKET V. Grossmann, J. Falkinger, University of Zurich, Department of Economics, Zurich, Switzerland ENDOGENOUS REORGANIZATION OF WORK AND WITHIN-GROUP WAGE INEQUALITY H. Egger, V. Grossmann, University of Zurich, Department of Economics, Zurich, Switzerland UNIONS AND FIRMS AGGLOMERATION E. Toulemonde, P.M. Picard, FUNDP, Economics, Namur, Belgium -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 09:00 - 10:30 ROOM B1-306 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- POLITICAL ECONOMY I Chairperson: E. Le Borgne SEEKING WITH EFFORTS AND BIDS L. Schoonbeek, M. Haan, Department of Economics, University of Groningen, Groningen, The Netherlands PROPERTY RIGHTS, RENT-SEEKING AND AGGREGATE OUTCOMES G. Cheikbossian, Universite des Sciences Sociales, Gremaq, Toulouse, France CANDIDATE ENTRY, SCREENING, AND THE POLITICAL BUSINESS CYCLE E. Le Borgne, B. Lockwood, University of Warwick, Economics Dept., Coventry, UK THE LIMIT OF PUBLIC POLICY: ENDOGENOUS PREFERENCES C. Fershtman, Tel-Aviv University, Eitan Berglas School of Economics, Ramat Aviv, Israel -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 09:00 - 10:30 ROOM B1-307 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RISK MEASUREMENT Chairperson: A. Pfingsten , Germany ASSESSING THE RISK OF TRADING BOOKS EMPIRICALLY: DOES THE CHOICE OF A RISK MEASURE MATTER? A. Pfingsten, C. Hahn, P. Wagner, Institut fuer Kreditwesen, Universitaet Muenster, Muenster, Germany DEFAULT PROBABILITIES AND DEFAULT CORRELATIONS U. Erlenmaier, H.A. Gersbach, University of Heidelberg, Alfred-Weber-, Heidelberg, Germany THE PROPERTIES OF DOWNSIDE RISK MEASURES H. Hakenes, C. Breitmeyer, A. Pfingsten, Institut fuer Kreditwesen, Universitat Muenster, Muenster, Germany ASSET MARKET LINKAGES IN CRISIS PERIODS C.G. De Vries, P. Hartmann, S. Straetmans, Erasmus University Rotterdam, Department of Economics, Rotterdam, The Netherlands -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 09:00 - 10:30 ROOM B2-2024 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- VOLATILITY MODELS I Chairperson: W. Kim , Germany A LOCAL INSTRUMENTAL VARIABLE ESTIMATION METHOD FOR GENERALIZED ADDITIVE VOLATILITY MODELS W. Kim, O. Linton, Humboldt University of Berlin, Economics, Berlin, Germany INDIRECT INFERENCE ESTIMATION OF CONDITIONALLY HETEROSKEDASTIC FACTOR MODELS G. Calzolari, G. Fiorentini, E. Sentana, Dipartimento di Statistica, Universita di Firenze, Florence, Italy CONDITIONALLY HETEROSKEDASTIC FACTOR MODELS: IDENTIFICATION AND INSTRUMENTAL VARIABLES ESTIMATION C. Doz, Universite Cergy-Pontoise, France -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 09:00 - 10:30 ROOM B2-2064 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- COMMON BUSINESS CYCLES Chairperson: S. Barrios , UK A TALE OF TWO CYCLES: CO-FLUCTUATIONS BETWEEN UK REGIONS AND THE EURO ZONE S. Barrios, M. Brulhart, R.J. Elliott, M. Sensier, Department of Economics, University of Manchester, School of Economics, Manchester, UK ON NON-CONTEMPORANEOUS SHORT-RUN COMOVEMENTS A.W. Hecq, G. Cubadda, G. Cubadda, Department of Quantitative Economics, Maastricht University, Maastricht, The Netherlands COMMON CYCLES: A FREQUENCY DOMAIN APPROACH B. Candelon, J. Breitung, Maastricht University, Economics, Maastricht, The Netherlands -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 09:00 - 10:30 ROOM B2-2106 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SEMI- AND NON-PARAMETRIC METHODS I Chairperson: A. Lewbel , USA NONPARAMETRIC STUDY OF DIFFERENTIAL EQUATIONS AND INVERSE PROBLEMS A. Vanhems, University Of Toulouse 1, Economics, Gremaq, Toulouse, France ENGEL CURVES WITH ENDOGENOUS EXPENDITURE X. Chen, C. Ai, R. Blundell, Dept of Economics, London School of Economics, London, UK TWO STAGE LEAST SQUARES ESTIMATION OF ENDOGENEOUS SAMPLE SELECTION MODELS A. Lewbel, Boston College, Economics, Chestnut Hill, MA, USA -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 09:00 - 10:30 ROOM B2-2013 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- UNEMPLOYMENT DURATION Chairperson: M. Dejemeppe , Belgium DURATION AND CALENDAR TIME DEPENDENCE OF THE EXIT RATE OUT OF UNEMPLOYMENT IN BELGIUM. IS IT TRUE OR SPURIOUS? M. Dejemeppe, B. Cockx, Institut de Recherches Economiques et Sociales, Dept. of Economics, Universite Catholique de Louvain, Louvain-la-Neuve, Belgium LEFT-CENSORING IN DURATION DATA: THEORY AND APPLICATION OF SOME EMPIRICAL SOLUTIONS TO SCHOOLING AND UNEMPLOYMENT DURATIONS OF FRENCH YOUNG PEOPLE A.C. D'Addio, M. Rosholm, Universite Catholique de Louvain and Universite d'Evry - Val d'Essonne, IRES, CERISIS, Department of Economics, Louvain-la-Neuve, Belgium THE EFFECT OF THE TIME PROFILE OF UNEMPLOYMENT INSURANCE BENEFITS ON THE EXIT RATE FROM UNEMPLOYMENT D. Fougere, B. Dormont, A. Prieto, Crest-Insee, CNRS and CEPR, Malakoff, France -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 09:00 - 10:30 ROOM B2-2044 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- PANEL UNIT ROOT TESTS Chairperson: J. Lee , USA LEVEL SHIFTS IN A PANEL DATA BASED UNIT ROOT TEST. AN APPLICATION TO THE RATE OF UNEMPLOYMENT J.L. Carrion-Silvestre, T. Del Barrio, T. Lopez-Bazo, University of Barcelona, Econometrics, Statistics and Spanish Economy, Barcelona, Spain TESTING FOR UNIT ROOTS ON HETEROGENEOUS PANELS: A SEQUENTIAL APPROACH P.Y. Henin, P. Jolivaldt, A. Nguyen, Cepremap/Eureque Paris1, Paris, France PANEL LM UNIT ROOT TEST: A TEST ROBUST TO STRUCTURAL BREAKS J. Lee, K.S. Im, University of Central Florida, Economics, Orlando, FL, USA -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 09:00 - 10:30 ROOM B2-2055 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- COINTEGRATION: TERM STRUCTURE AND PPP Chairperson: K. Carstensen , Germany INTERPRETING COINTEGRATION IN A MODEL OF THE TERM STRUCTURE WITH NONSTATIONARY TERM PREMIA K. Carstensen, Christian-Albrechts-University at Kiel, Institute of Statistics and Econometrics, Kiel, Germany AN EVALUATION OF NON-LINEAR COINTEGRATED SYSTEMS OF THE US TERM-STRCUTURE OF INTEREST RATES A.B.C. Galvao, M.P. Clements, University of Warwick, Economics, Coventry, UK INTERNATIONAL PARITY RELATIONSHIPS BETWEEN GERMANY AND THE UNITED STATES: A JOINT MODELLING APPROACH K. Juselius, R. Macdonald, European University Institute, Economics, San Domenico (Fiesole), Italy -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 09:00 - 10:30 ROOM B2-2097 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ECONOMICS OF CRIME Chairperson: K. Bedard , USA THE ECONOMICS OF CRIME: INVESTIGATING THE DRUGS-CRIME CHANNEL H. Entorf, P. Winker, Universitat Wurzburg, Department of Economics, Wuerzburg, Germany SPATIAL SEGREGATION, NEIGHBORHOOD EFFECTS, AND CRIMINAL MOBILITY: AN EMPIRICAL STUDY OF THE DETERMINANTS OF CRIME T. Buettner, H. Spengler, University of Kentucky, Martin School of Public Policy and Administration, Lexington, Kentucky, USA DOES SINGLE PARENTHOOD INCREASE THE PROBABILITY OF TEENAGE PROMISCUITY, DRUG USE, AND CRIME? EVIDENCE FROM DIVORCE LAW CHANGES K. Bedard, H. Antecol, E. Helland, University of California, Economics Department, Santa Barbara, CA, USA -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 09:00 - 10:30 ROOM B2-2120 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- CONSUMPTION AND SAVING Chairperson: H. Bloemen , The Netherlands TESTING LONG RUN AND SHORT RUN CONSUMPTION RISK SHARING AMONG THE UNITED STATES 1963-1990 L. Fanelli, G. Cavaliere, University of Bologna, Statistical Sciences, Bologna, Italy INCOME UNCERTAINTY AND PRECAUTIONARY SAVING: EVIDENCE FROM HOUSEHOLD ROTATING PANEL DATA P. Albarran, CEMFI, Madrid, Spain CONSUMPTION SMOOTHING, UNEMPLOYMENT BENEFITS, AND INCOME SHOCKS DUE TO JOB LOSS H. Bloemen, Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam, The Netherlands -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 09:00 - 10:30 ROOM B2-4030 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- PUBLIC POLICY/VOTING Chairperson: H. Jordahl , Sweden EDUCATION EXPENDITURES AND THE MEDIAN VOTER: A HAPPY MARRIAGE C. Maravall, New York University, Economics, New York, NY, USA HOW ESTIMATE THE PRODUCTIVITY OF PUBLIC CAPITAL ? C. Hurlin, University Paris IX Dauphine, EURISCO, Paris, France AN ECONOMIC ANALYSIS OF VOTING IN SWEDEN H. Jordahl, , Uppsala University, Department of Economics, Uppsala, Sweden ON PUBLIC INVESTMENT, THE REAL EXCHANGE RATE AND GROWTH: SOME EMPIRICAL EVIDENCE FROM THE UK AND THE US S. Ghosh, Cardiff Business School, UK -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 09:00 - 10:30 ROOM B2-4021 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- MICRO PANEL DATA AND FIRM BEHAVIOUR Chairperson: T. Lindstrom , Sweden ARE RISING RETURNS TO SCALE A FIGMENT OF AGGREGATION BIAS? T. Lindstrom, S. Hansen, The Riksbank, Monetary Policy Department, Stockholm, Sweden ARE THERE ECONOMIES OF SCALE IN THE DEMAND FOR MONEY BY FIRMS? SOME PANEL DATA ESTIMATES O. Bover, N. Watson, Banco de Espana, Research Department, Madrid, Spain SUBSTITUTION AND COMPLEMENTARITY BETWEEN CAPITAL, SKILLED AND LESS SKILLED WORKERS: AN ANALYSIS AT THE FIRM LEVEL IN THE FRENCH MANUFACTURING SECTOR P. Biscourp, INSEE-CREST, France -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 09:00 - 10:30 ROOM B2-2060 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ECONOMICS OF EDUCATION Chairperson: B. Strom , Norway MEASURING THE EFFECT OF A SCHOOL REFORM ON EDUCATIONAL ATTAINMENT AND EARNINGS J. Aakvik, K.G. Salvanes, K. Vaage, University of Bergen, Department of Economics, Bergen, Norway EFFECTS ON SCHOOL ENROLLMENT AND PERFORMANCE OF A CONDITIONAL TRANSFERS PROGRAM IN MEXICO P.C. Dubois, A. De Janvry, E. Sadoulet, INRA Toulouse, Economics, Toulouse, France TEACHER QUALITY AND STUDENT COMPOSITION SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY B. Strom, Norweigan University, Norway -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 11:00 - 12:30 ROOM B1-263 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- INVITED LECTURE Chairperson: J.P. Florens , France ESTIMATION OF POLICY IMPACTS USING OBSERVATIONAL DATA H. Ichimura, University College London, Dept of Economics, London, UK Discussant: D. Fougere, Crest-Insee, CNRS, and CEPR, Malakoff, Paris, France -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 11:00 - 12:30 ROOM B2-1031 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- INVITED LECTURE ASSET PRICING AND FINANCIAL CRISES F. Allen, University of Pennsylvania, Pennsylvania PA, USA Discussant: E.L. Von Thadden, University of Lausanne, Science Economique (MSE), Lausanne, Switzerland -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 14:00 - 15:30 ROOM B2-1031 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Plenary Session: FISHER-SCHULTZ LECTURE Chairperson: R. Blundell , UK ECONOMETRICS AND DECISION THEORY G. Chamberlain, Dept of Economics, Harvard University, Cambridge MA, USA -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 16:00 - 17:30 ROOM B1-121 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- COMPETITION POLICY Chairperson: A. Lambert-Mogiliansky , France INVESTMENT, REPROCUREMENT AND FRANCHISE CONTRACT LENGTH IN THE BRITISH RAILWAY INDUSTRY L. Affuso, D. Newbery, University of Cambridge, of Applied Economics, Cambridge, UK A NOTE ON YARDSTICK COMPETITION UNDER ASYMMETRIC INFORMATION R. Lesur, P. Chone, ENSAE, Economics, Malakoff, France AGREEING TO SHARE THE MARKET IN PUBLIC TENDERS A. Lambert-Mogiliansky, CERAS Ecole Nationale des Ponts et Chauss?es, Paris, France COST PADDING AND PROCUREMENT T.S. Worrall, S. Bougheas, Keele University, Department of Economics, Keele, Staffs, UK -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 16:00 - 17:30 ROOM B2-2024 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- NON-LINEAR PANEL DATA MODELS Chairperson: T.M. Woutersen , Canada BINARY VARIABLES AND FIXED EFFECTS: GENERALISING CONDITIONAL LOGIT USING GLOBAL CUTS T. Magnac, INRA, LEA and CREST, Paris, France ROBUSTNESS AGAINST PRIORS AND MIXING DISTRIBUTIONS T.M. Woutersen, University of Western Ontario, Economics Dept, London, Ontario, Canada ESTIMATING A CENSORED DYNAMIC PANEL DATA MODEL WITH AN APPLICATION TO EARNINGS DYNAMICS L. Hu, Northwestern University, Dept Economics, Evanston IL, USA -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 16:00 - 17:30 ROOM B2-2064 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- AUTOREGRESSIVE CONDITIONAL DURATION MODELS Chairperson: N. Hautsch , Germany ANALYZING LIQUIDITY DYNAMICS USING ACD MODELS N. Hautsch, University of Konstanz, Center of Finance and Econometrics, Konstanz, Baden Wuerttemberg, Germany TIME, VOLUME AND PRICE IMPACT OF TRADES S. Manganelli, European Central Bank, General Economic Research, Frankfurt am Main, Germany THE MOMENTS OF FIRST-ORDER LOG-ACD MODELS L.C. Bauwens, P. Giot, Universite Catholique de Louvain, CORE, Louvain-La-Neuve, Belgium -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 16:00 - 17:30 ROOM B2-2013 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SEASONALITY Chairperson: S.A.F. Hylleberg , Denmark SEASONALITY IN ECONOMIC MODELS S.A.F. Hylleberg, B. Brendstrup, M. Nielsen, L. Skipper, L. Stentoft, University of Aarhus, Department of Economics, Aarhus C, Denmark FULLY MODIFIED ESTIMATION OF SEASONALLY COINTEGRATED PROCESSES S.M. Gregoir, DESE-Timbre G220, Malakoff, France TESTING AGAINST STOCHASTIC SEASONALITY F. Busetti, A. Harvey, Bank of Italy, Economic Research Department, Roma, Italy -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 16:00 - 17:30 ROOM B2-2106 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- MONETARY POLICY TRANSMISSION Chairperson: J. Aron , UK CONTROLLING INFLATION IN A COINTEGRATED VECTOR AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL WITH AN APPLICATION TO US DATA S. Johansen, K. Juselius, European University Institute, Economics Dept., Florence, Italy INFLATION AND OUTPUT FORECASTING FOR SOUTH AFRICA: MONETARY TRANSMISSION IMPLICATIONS J. Aron, J.N.J. Muellbauer, Oxford University, Economics Department, Oxford, UK THE MONETARY TRANSMISSION MECHANISM: HAS IT CHANGED? J. Boivin, M. Giannoni, Columbia Business School, Economics and Finance, New York, NY, USA -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 16:00 - 17:30 ROOM B2-2060 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- HYPOTHESIS TESTS I Chairperson: R. Larsson , Sweden A ROBUST VERSION OF THE KPSS TEST, BASED ON INDICATORS R.M. De Jong, C. Amsler, P. Schmidt, Department of Economics, Michigan State University, East Lansing MI, USA TESTING FOR COMMON COINTEGRATING RANK IN DYNAMIC PANELS R. Larsson, J. Lyhagen, Stockholm University, Dept. of Statistics, Stockholm, Sweden COMPARISON OF THE ANDERSON-RUBIN TEST FOR OVERIDENTIFICATION AND THE JOHANSEN TEST FOR COINTEGRATION L.F. Hoogerheide, H.K. Van Dijk, Erasmus University Rotterdam, Econometric Institute, Rotterdam, Zuid-Holland, The Netherlands -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 16:00 - 17:30 ROOM B2-2044 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- EQUILIBRIUM SEARCH MODELS Chairperson: S.N. Seitz , Canada ESTIMATING EQUILIBRIUM SEARCH MODELS FROM FINNISH DATA T.M.J. Kyyra, Government Institute for Economic Research,, Helsinki, Finland EMPLOYMENT AND THE SEX RATIO IN A TWO-SIDED MODEL OF MARRIAGE S.N. Seitz, Queen's University, Economics, Kingston, Ontario, Canada PARAMETRIC AND NONPARAMETRIC INFERENCE IN EQUILIBRIUM SEARCH MODELS G. Koop, University of Glasgow, Economics Dept., Glasgow, UK -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 16:00 - 17:30 ROOM B2-4021 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- HOUSEHOLD LABOUR SUPPLY Chairperson: P. Chone , France COMPARISON BETWEEN UNITARY AND COLLECTIVE MODELS OF HOUSEHOLD LABOUR SUPPLY WITH TAXATION D. Beninger, F. Laisney, Zentrum fuer Europaeische Wirtschaftsforschung, Labour Markets, Human Resources and Social Policy, Mannheim, Germany LABOR FORCE PARTICIPATION AMONG TWO-ADULT HOUSEHOLDS: THE ROLE OF FINANCIAL INCENTIVES P. Chone, INSEE, D3E, Malakof, France AND THE WINNER IS... AN EMPIRICAL EVALUATION OF TWO COMPETING APPROACHES TO HOUSEHOLD LABOUR SUPPLY F. Vermeulen, Katholieke Universiteit Leuven, Center for Economic Studies, Leuven, Belgium -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 16:00 - 17:30 ROOM B2-2055 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- REGIME SWITCHING IN FINANCE Chairperson: M. Lanne , Finland MODELING THE U.S. SHORT-TERM INTEREST RATE BY MIXTURE AUTOREGRESSIVE PROCESSES M. Lanne, P. Saikkonen, University of Helsinki, Department of Economics, Helsinki, Finland HAVE EAST ASIAN STOCK MARKETS CALMED DOWN? EVIDENCE FROM A REGIME-SWITCHING MODEL F.J.G.M. Klaassen, K. Chaudhuri, University of Amsterdam, Economics, Amsterdam, The Netherlands DYNAMIC PORTFOLIO SELECTION: THE RELEVANCE OF SWITCHING REGIMES AND INVESTMENT HORIZON A. Graflund, B. Nilsson, Department of Economics, Lund University, Lund, Sweden -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 16:00 - 17:30 ROOM B2-2097 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- BUSINESS CYCLE FEATURES Chairperson: B. Cresti , Belgium FRACTIONAL INTEGRATION AND BUSINESS CYCLES FEATURES L.A. Gil-Alana, B. Candelon, Humboldt Universitat zu Berlin, Statistics und Ekonometrics, Berlin, Germany U.S. DOMESTIC BARTER: AN EMPIRICAL INVESTIGATION B. Cresti, UCL, IRES, Louvain la Neuve, Belgium SHORT-TERM VOLATILITY VERSUS LONG-TERM GROWTH: EVIDENCE IN US MACROECONOMIC TIME SERIES D.J.C. Van Dijk, M. Sensier, Erasmus University Rotterdam, Econometric Institute, Rotterdam, The Netherlands -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 16:00 - 17:30 ROOM B2-2120 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- EMPIRICAL INDUSTRIAL ORGANIZATION I Chairperson: L.F. La Cour , Denmark TESTING FOR ASYMMETRIC DYNAMIC OLIGOPOLY MODELS C. Zulehner, R. Siebert, University of Vienna, Department of Economics, Vienna, Austria TESTS OF (ABUSE OF) DOMINATION: THE DANISH CEMENT INDUSTRY L.F. La Cour, H.P. Moellgaard, Copenhagen Business School, Economics, Frederiksberg, Denmark RISK SHARING IN THE FRENCH URBAN TRANSPORT INDUSTRY: AN EMPIRICAL INVESTIGATION P. Gagnepain, Universidad Carlos III, Department of Economics, Madrid, Spain -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 16:00 - 17:30 ROOM B2-4030 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- WAGES AND EMPLOYMENT Chairperson: S. Roux , France WAGE AND JOB MOBILITY : AN ANALYSIS OF DYNAMICS OF EMPLOYMENT DURATIONS AND WAGES USING MATCHED EMPLOYER-EMPLOYEE DATA S. Roux, J.M. Abowd, F. Kramarz, CREST-INSEE,, Paris, France INTERFIRM MOBILITY, WAGES, AND THE RETURNS TO SENIORITY AND EXPERIENCE IN THE U.S. F. Kramarz, M. Buchinsky, D. Fougere, R. Tchernis, Insee, Crest, Malakoff, France ORGANIZATIONAL CHANGE AND WAGES: EVIDENCE FROM MATCHED EMPLOYER-EMPLOYEE DATA T.K. Bauer, S. Bender, IZA,, Bonn, NRW, Germany -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 16:00 - 17:30 ROOM B1-122 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- EVOLUTIONARY GAMES I Chairperson: F. Vega-Redondo , Spain LEARNING, NETWORK FORMATION, AND COORDINATION F. Vega-Redondo, S. Goyal, Fundamentos del Analisis Economico, Universidad de Alicante. Alicante , Spain CONTRACTUAL INCOMPLETENESS AND THE NATURE OF MARKET INTERACTIONS A. Falk, M. Brown, E. Fehr, University of Zurich, IEW, Zurich, Switzerland EVOLUTION OF TRADING STRATEGIES IN INCOMPLETE MARKTES T. Hens, K.R. Schenk-Hoppe, S. Gueth, Institute for Empirical Research in Economics,, Zurich, Switzerland, Zurich, Switzerland EVOLUTIONARY CHOICE OF MARKETS A. Gerber, M.O. Bettzuege, University of Zurich, Institute for Empirical Research in Economics, Zurich, Switzerland -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 16:00 - 17:30 ROOM B1-123 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- INDETERMINACY AND EQUILIBRIUM SELECTION Chairperson: A. Valentinyi , UK DETERMINACY WITH ADJUSTMENT COSTS AND SECTOR-SPECIFIC EXTERNALITIES A. Valentinyi, B. Herrendorf, University of Southampton, Economics, Southampton, UK INDETERMINACY, STOCK MARKET ANOMALIES, AND AGGREGATE FLUCTUATIONS E. Challe, University of Paris 10 at Nanterre, Economics, Nanterre, France CAN MONEY HELP GENERATE LOCAL INDETERMINACY? L. Sessa, Department de Economia i Empresa, Universitat Pompeu Fabra, Barcelona, Spain INDETERMINANCY IN TWO-SECTOR MODELS WITH FIXED COEFFICIENTS K. Ralf, Paris, France -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 16:00 - 17:30 ROOM B1-125 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- MARKETS AND GAMES Chairperson: D.P. Tsomocos , UK STRATEGIC MARKET GAMES WITH A FINITE HORIZON AND INCOMPLETE MARKETS S.K. Weyers, G. Giraud, INSEAD, Economics, Fontainebleau Cedex, France EQUILIBRIUM ANALYSIS, BANKING AND FINANCIAL INSTABILITY D.P. Tsomocos, Bank of England, UK COMPETITION AMONG AUCTIONEERS A. Hernando-Veciana, Universidad de Alicante, Dept. Fundamentos del Analisis Economico, Alicante, Spain -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 16:00 - 17:30 ROOM B1-126 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- MECHANISM DESIGN II Chairperson: D.L. Szalay , Germany KNOW YOURSELF, IMPROVE YOURSELF: PROCUREMENT WITH AN ENDOGENOUS TYPE DISTRIBUTION D.L. Szalay, University of Mannheim, Mannheim, Germany CONTRACTING OVER TIME WHEN WRITING IS COSTLY P. Battigalli, G. Maggi, Bocconi University, Economics, Milano, MI, Italy OH RIVAL, WHERE ART THOU? ENDOGENISING TYPE-DEPENDENT RESERVATION UTILITIES S. Sonderegger, LSE, Economics Dept., London, UK FUNDRAISING UNDER INCOMPLETE INFORMATION P. Kanti Bag, Birbeck College, Economics, London, UK -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 16:00 - 17:30 ROOM B1-129 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- MONETARY POLICY Chairperson: R. Mash , UK CONSUMPTION AND MONETARY POLICY SHOCKS: MACROECONOMIC EVIDENCE C. Florens, S. Auray, Toulouse University and GREMAQ, Department of Economics, Toulouse, France FINANCIAL FRAGILITY, BUBBLES AND MONETARY POLICY G. Illing, University of Munich, Department of Economics, D-80539 Munich, Germany MONETARY POLICY WITH AN ENDOGENOUS CAPITAL STOCK: A SOURCE OF DISINFLATION BIAS WHEN INFLATION IS PERSISTENT R. Mash, Oxford University, Economics Dept., New College, Oxford, UK -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 16:00 - 17:30 ROOM B1-231 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- POLITICAL ECONOMY II Chairperson: C.L. Leaver , UK INVEST, EXPROPRIATE, OR WAIT? EXPECTED INCOME AND THE DEMAND FOR REDISTRIBUTION P. Harms, S. Zink, University of Konstanz, Dept. of Economics, Konstanz, Germany ECONOMIC INTEGRATION AND CORRUPTION: THE CORRUPT SOUL OF THE EUROPEAN UNION E. Hauk, J.J. Ganuza, J.J. Ganuza, Universitat Pompeu Fabra, Economics and Business, Barcelona, Spain EFFICIENCY GAINS AND INFORMATIONAL LOBBYING: ON THE COSTS OF DISCRETION IN MERGER CONTROL P.F. Heidhues, J. Lagerlof, WZB - Social Science Research Center Berlin, Competivness and Industrial Change, Berlin, Germany SQUAWK AND CAPTURE: INFLUENCING APPOINTED REGULATORS C.L. Leaver, University of Bristol, Economics, Bristol, UK -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 16:00 - 17:30 ROOM B1-232 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- WELFARE ECONOMICS I Chairperson: M. Van Veelen , The Netherlands A CONSENSUS LEXIMIN RULE E. Ooghe, University de Cergy-Pontoise, THEMA, Cergy-Pontoise, France PRICE INDEX DISTRIBUTION AND UTILITARIAN SOCIAL EVALUATION FUNCTION C. Muller, University of Nottingham, Economics, Notthinghamshire, UK APPLES AND PEARS; AN IMPOSSIBILITY THEOREM CONCERNING MULTILATERAL INTERNATIONAL COMPARISON OF VOLUMES M. Van Veelen, Tinbergen Instituut Amsterdam,, Amsterdam, The Netherlands -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 16:00 - 17:30 ROOM B1-306 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ASSET PRICING II Chairperson: A. Mele ENDOGENOUS MARKET PARTICIPATION AND ASSET PRICE VOLATILITY H. Herrera, NYU, Department of Economics, New York, NY, USA FINANCIAL INNOVATION, MARKET PARTICIPATION AND ASSET PRICES M. Gonzalez-Eiras, L. Calvet, P. Sodini, Department of Economics, Universidad de San Andres, Victoria, Argentina FUNDAMANTAL PROPERTIES OF BOND PRICES IN MODELS OF THE SHOTR-TERM RATE A. Mele -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Tuesday, August 28, 2001 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 09:00 - 10:30 ROOM B2-2060 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- BOOTSTRAP METHODS II Chairperson: H. Herwartz , Germany BOOTSTRAP INFERENCE IN SINGLE EQUATION ERROR CORRECTION MODELS H. Herwartz, M.H. Neumann, Humboldt University Berlin, Institute for Statistics and Econometrics, Berlin, Germany BOOTSTRAP INFERENCE IN SEMIPARAMETRIC GENERALIZED ADDITIVE MODELS S. Sperlich, W. Huerdle, S. Huet, E. Mammen, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid, Estadistica y Econometria, Getafe, Madrid, Spain MAXIMUM LIKELIHOOD AND THE BOOTSTRAP FOR NONLINEAR DYNAMIC MODELS S. Goncalves, H. White, University of Montreal, Economics, Outremont, Quebec, Canada -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 09:00 - 10:30 ROOM B2-2024 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- FORECASTING Chairperson: J.B. Hill , USA FORECAST UNCERTAINTIES IN MACROECONOMETRIC MODELLING: AN APPLICATION TO THE UK ECONOMY K. Lee, M.H. Pesaran, A. Shin, A. Garratt, Department of Economics, University of Leicester, Leicester, UK A UNIFIED THEORY OF WALD-TYPE HYPOTHESIS TESTS FOR INFINITE VARIANCE PROCESSES J.B. Hill, University of Colorado at Boulder, Economics, Boluder, CO, USA CHI-SQUARED TESTS OF INTERVAL AND DENSITY FORECASTS K.F. Wallis, University of Warwick, Department of Economics, Coventry, UK -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 09:00 - 10:30 ROOM B2-2064 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- FINANCIAL ECONOMETRICS: DERIVATIVE PRICING Chairperson: J. Kerkhof , The Netherlands COMPARING RISK-NEUTRAL PROBABILITY DENSITY FUNCTIONS IMPLIED BY OPTION PRICES - HOW DO MARKET EXPECTATIONS REACT TO ECB-COUNCIL MEETINGS? M. Mandler, University of Giessen, Department of Economics, Giessen, Germany HEDGE PERFORMANCE MEASUREMENT: TESTING DAILY MARKET RISK EVALUATION MODELS J. Kerkhof, B. Melenberg, H. Schumacher, Tilburg University, Econometrics, Tilburg, Noord-Brabant, The Netherlands REGULATORY TOOLS AND PRICE CHANGES IN FUTURES MARKETS P. Kofman, A.D. Hall, A.D. Hall, University of Technology, Finance and Economics, Sydney, NSW, Australia -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 09:00 - 10:30 ROOM B2-2106 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- EXCHANGE RATES I Chairperson: F. Bec , France TESTS FOR UNIT-ROOT VERSUS THRESHOLD SPECIFICATION WITH AN APPLICATION TO THE PPP M. Ben Salem, F. Bec, M. Carrasco A BAYESIAN ANALYSIS OF PURCHASING POWER PARITY USING AN UNOBSERVED COMPONENTS MODEL R. Kleijn, H.K. Van Dijk, Erasmus University Rotterdam, Tinbergen Institute, Rotterdam, The Netherlands WHY IS IT SO DIFFICULT TO BEAT THE RANDOM WALK FORCAST OF EXCHANGE RATES L. Kilian, M.P. Taylor, Ann Arbor, MI, USA -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 09:00 - 10:30 ROOM B2-2013 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- VAR MODELS Chairperson: W. Lastrapes , USA GENERAL-TO-SPECIFIC REDUCTIONS OF VECTOR AUTOREGRESSIVE PROCESSES H.M. Krolzig, University of Oxford, Department of Economics, Oxford, UK TIME-VARYING INTERCEPTS AND EQUILIBRIUM ANALYSIS: AN EXTENSION OF THE DYNAMIC ALMOST IDEAL DEMAND MODEL P.J. Deschamps, Universite de Fribourg, Quantitative Economics Department, Fribourg, Switzerland ON THE AGGREGATION OF SHOCKS IN STRUCTURAL VARS J.P. Pina, F. Canova, Bank of Portugal, Research, Lisboa, Portugal THE REAL PRICE OF HOUSING AND MONEY SUPPLY SHOCKS: TIME SERIES EVIDENCE AND THEORETICAL SUMULATIONS W. Lastrapes, University of Georgia, Economics Dept., Athens, GA, USA -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 09:00 - 10:30 ROOM B2-2044 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- LIKELIHOOD INFERENCE Chairperson: K.J. Van Garderen , UK ON LIKELIHOOD IN THE GENERAL LINEAR MODEL AND STATE SPACE MODELS WITH DIFFUSE INITIAL CONDITIONS A.F. De Vos, M.K. Francke, Vrije Universiteit, Econometrics, Amsterdam, The Netherlands CONDITIONAL INFERENCE IN THE FIRST ORDER AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL K.J. Van Garderen, University of Bristol, Economics Dept., Bristol, UK COORDINATE BASED EMPIRICAL LIKELIHOOD ESTIMATION AND INFERENCE M. Van Akkeren, G.G. Judge, University of California, Berkeley/ Arthur Andersen LLP, Economics Dept., League City, TX, USA -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 09:00 - 10:30 ROOM B2-2055 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ASYMPTOTIC APPROXIMATIONS Chairperson: K. Knight , Canada LIMIT THEOREMS FOR ESTIMATING THE PARAMETERS OF DIFFERENTIATED PRODUCT DEMAND SYSTEMS O.B. Linton, S. Berry, A. Pakes, LSE, Economics, London, UK BIAS CORRECTION IN A STABLE AD(1,1) MODEL: WEAK VS. STRONG EXOGENEITY N.P.A. Van Giersbergen, Universiteit van Amsterdam, of Quantitative Economics, Amsterdam, The Netherlands COMPARING CONDITIONAL QUANTILE ESTIMATORS: FIRST AND SECOND ORDER CONSIDERATIONS K. Knight, University of Toronto, Dept. of Statistics, Toronto, Ontario, Canada -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 09:00 - 10:30 ROOM B2-2097 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- HOUSEHOLD BEHAVIOUR II Chairperson: G. Topa , USA PARENTAL ALTRUISM UNDER IMPERFECT INFORMATION: THEORY AND EVIDENCE E. Villanueva, Department of Economics, Universitat Pompeu Fabra, Barcelona, Spain INTERTEMPORAL LABOR SUPPLY OF MARRIED WOMEN: AN ESTIMATION USING LONGITUDINAL FRENCH DATA ON THE LAST DECADE M. Gardes-Balsan, Laboratoire de Microeconometrie, CREST, Malakoff, France AN EMPIRICAL ANALYSIS OF RELIGIOUS HOMOGAMY AND SOCIALIZATION IN THE U.S. G. Topa, A. Bisin, T. Verdier, New York University, Economics, New York, NY, USA -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 09:00 - 10:30 ROOM B2-2120 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- INNOVATION Chairperson: A. Heshmati , Sweden INNOVATION ACTIVITIES AND EUROPEAN PATENTING OF GERMAN FIRMS: A PANEL DATA ANALYSIS N. Janz, G. Licht, T. Doherr, Industrial Economics and International Management, ZEW Centre for European Economic Research, Mannheim, Germany KNOWLEDGE CAPITAL AND PERFORMANCE HETEROGENEITY: A FIRM LEVEL INNOVATION STUDY A. Heshmati, H. Loof, Stockholm School of Economics, Economic Statistics, Stockholm, Sweden THE DIFFUSION OF EXTERNALITIES FROM FOREIGN DIRECT INVESTMENT: THEORY AHEAD OF MEASUREMENT M.D. Kugler, University of Southampton, Economics Dept., Southampton, UK -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 09:00 - 10:30 ROOM B2-4030 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- DISCRETE CHOICE MODELS OF CONSUMER DEMAND Chairperson: V.A. Hajivassiliou , UK MODELING UNOBSERVED CONSIDERATION SETS FOR HOUSEHOLD PANEL DATA R. Paap, E.V. Nierop, P. Bronnenberg, P.H. Franses, M. Wedel, RIBES H16-17, Erasmus University Rotterdam, Rotterdam, The Netherlands EFFORT, DECISION STRATEGY AND CHOICE: HOW MANY ATTRIBUTES DO CONSUMERS CONSIDER? A.H.O. Van Soest, B. Conlon, B.G.C. Dellaert, The Netherlands, Tilburg University, Econometrics & OR, Tilburg, The Netherlands ESTIMATION OF STOCHASTIC PREFERENCES: AN EMPIRICAL ANALYSIS OF DEMAND FOR INTERNET SERVICES W. Beckert, University of Florida, Dept of Economics, Gainesville FL, USA -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 09:00 - 10:30 ROOM B2-4021 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- WAGE BEHAVIOUR Chairperson: G. Bardsen , Norway AN INTERNATIONAL COMPARISON OF ALLOCATION PRACTICES AND WAGE INEQUALITY A.A. Dupuy, L. Borghans, University Maastricht, Research Centre for Education and the Labour Market (ROA), Maastricht, The Netherlands WAGE BEHAVIOUR DURING THE INTERWAR YEARS: ARE THERE ANY PUZZLES LEFT? EVIDENCE FROM A PANEL OF NORWEGIAN MANUFACTURING INDUSTRIES G. Bardsen, J. Doornik, J.T. Klovland, NTNU, Dragvoll, Economics Dept., Trondheim, Norway COMPETITIVE AND CORPORATIST LABOR MARKETS: THEORY AND EVIDENCE FROM TIME SERIES DATA T.A. Knetsch, Ph.D.-Program "Applied Microeconomics", Freie Universitat Berlin, Berlin, Germany -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 09:00 - 10:30 ROOM B1-121 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- COASE CONJECTURE Chairperson: J.M. Usategui , Spain COMMITMENT POWER IN A NON-STATIONARY DURABLE-GOOD MARKET J.M. Usategui, University of the Basque Country, Fundamentos del Analisis Economico, Vitoria, Spain DURABLE-GOODS MONOPOLISTS, SECOND-HAND MARKETS AND THE NATURE OF THE GOOD J. Horner, M. Kamien, Northwestern University, KGSM-MEDS, Evanston, IL, USA DYNAMIC MONOPOLY WITH STOCHASTIC DEMAND W. Beckert, University of Florida, Dept. of Economics, Gainesville FL, USA -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 09:00 - 10:30 ROOM B1-122 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- COMMON AGENCY Chairperson: J. Michaelis , Germany TAX COMPETITION BETWEEN ASYMMETRICALLY INFORMED GOVERNMENTS K. Diaw, J. Pouyet, University of Amsterdam, Finance and Organization Dept., Amsterdam, The Netherlands INFORMATION SHARING, MULTIPLE NASH EQUILIBRIA AND ASYMMETRIC CAPITAL-TAX COMPETITION W. Eggert, M. Kolmar, University of Konstanz, Department of Economics, Konstanz, Germany MONETARY POLICY: PROSPER-THY-NEIGBOUR AND BEGGAR-THYSELF? J. Michaelis, University of Kassel, Economics Dept., Kassel, Germany COMPETITION AMONG REGULATORS G. Dell Ariccia, R. Marquez, IMF, Research, Washington, DC, USA -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 09:00 - 10:30 ROOM B1-123 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- CURRENCY ATTACKS Chairperson: X. Vives , Spain PRIVATE AND PUBLIC INFORMATION IN SELF-FULFILLING CURRENCY CRISES C.E. Metz, University of Kassel, Economics, Kassel, Germany DOLLARIZATION, BAILOUTS, AND THE STABILITY OF THE BANKING SYSTEM X. Vives, D. Gale, Insitut d'Analisi Economica, CSIC,, Bellaterra, Barcelona, Spain CONTAGION OF SELF-FULFILLING FINANCIAL CRISES I. Goldstein, A. Pauzner, Princeton University, Economics, Princeton, NJ, USA DYNAMIC SPECULATIVE ATTACK C. Chamley, Boston University/ EHESS, Boston MA, USA -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 09:00 - 10:30 ROOM B1-125 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- EVOLUTIONARY GAMES II A MYOPIC ADJUSTMENT PROCESS LEADING TO BEST-REPLY MATCHING M. Kosfeld, E. Droste, M. Voorneveld, University of Zurich, Institute for Empirical Research in Economics, Zurich, Switzerland ON THE DYNAMIC FOUNDATION OF EVOLUTIONARY STABILITY IN CONTINUOUS MODELS F. Riedel, J. Oechssler, Humboldt University Berlin, Economics, Berlin, Germany FROM EVOLUTIONARY TO STRATEGIC STABILITY K. Ritzberger, University of Vienna, Austria -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 09:00 - 10:30 ROOM B1-126 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- FOUNDATIONS OF COMPETITIVE EQUILIBRIUM II Chairperson: J.K.H. Quah , UK INCOMPLETE PREFERENCES AND RATIONAL INTRANSITIVITY OF CHOICEMPLETE PREFERENCES AND RATIONAL INTRANSITIVITY OF CHOICE M. Mandler, Yale University, Economics, New Haven, CT, USA WEAK AXIOMATIC DEMAND THEORY J.K.H. Quah, Oxford University, Economics, Oxford, UK RATIONALITY WITHOUT TRANSITIVITY S. Fuchs-Seliger, O. Mayer, Universitaet Karlsruhe (TH), Institut fuer Wirtschaftstheorie und Operations Research, Karlsruhe, Germany -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 09:00 - 10:30 ROOM B1-129 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- INDUSTRIAL ORGANIZATION Chairperson: R. Siebert , Germany SUSTAINABILITY AND NON-LINEAR PRICING P. Bernard, J. Wittwer, University of Paris-Dauphine, Paris, France NEW PRODUCT INTRODUCTION R. Siebert, WZB, Competitiveness and Industrial Change, Berlin, Germany GETTING INSURANCE THROUGH DEMAND RATIONING H.A. Hela, F. Salanie, GREMAQ, Toulouse, France -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 09:00 - 10:30 ROOM B1-231 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- LABOUR MARKET SEARCH Chairperson: O. Charlot , France LEARNED HELPLESSNESS, DISCOURAGED WORKERS, AND MULTIPLE UNEMPLOYMENT EQUILIBRIA IN A SEARCH MODEL R. Bjornstad, Statistics Norway, Research, Macroeconomic, Oslo, Norway PRODUCTIVE EDUCATION OR A MARKETABLE DEGREE? G. Camera, W. Blankenau, Purdue University, Economics Dept., West Lafayette, Indiana, USA TOO MUCH EDUCATION OR NOT? A MATCHING APPROACH B. Decreuse, O. Charlot, P. Granier, GREQAM, Universite de la Mediterranee, Marseille, France -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 09:00 - 10:30 ROOM B1-232 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ORGANIZATIONS AND MECHANISM DESIGN Chairperson: B. Visser , The Netherlands INCENTIVE HIERARCHIES E. Auriol, R. Renault, University of Toulouse, ARQADE and IDEI, Toulouse, France CAREER CONCERNS, MULTIPLE TASKS AND SHORT-TERM CONTRACTS T.E. Olsen, O. Kaarboe, Norwegian School of Ecomomics and Business Administration, Dept. of Finance and Management Science, Bergen, Norway ORGANIZATIONAL COMPLEXITY, ROBUSTNESS, AND PERFORMANCE: TRADE-OFFS IN ORGANIZATIONAL DESIGN B. Visser, Erasmus University Rotterdam, Economics, Rotterdam, The Netherlands -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 09:00 - 10:30 ROOM B1-306 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- BANKING III Chairperson: D. Hancock , USA WHAT DOES THE SPREAD ON SUBORDINATED BANK DEBT MEASURE? U.W. Birchler, D. Hancock, SNB, Zuerich, Switzerland, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, Washington DC, USA BANKING COMPETITION, RISK, AND REGULATION A.F. Tieman, W. Bolt, Dutch Central Bank, Econometric Research and Special Studies Dept., Amsterdam, The Netherlands THE COMPOSITION OF BANKS' LOAN PORTFOLIOS: FIRST STEPS TOWARDS A THEORETICAL AND EMPIRICAL ANALYSIS K. Rudolph, A. Pfingsten, University of Muenster, Banking Dept., Muenster, Germany -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 11:00 - 12:30 ROOM B1-263 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- INVITED LECTURE Chairperson: R. Davidson , France BOOTSTRAP METHODS FOR DEPENDENT DATA J.L. Horowitz, University of Iowa, Iowa City IO, USA Discussant: B.E. Hansen, University of Wisconsin, Dept of Economics, Madison WI, USA -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 11:00 - 12:30 ROOM B2-1031 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- INVITED LECTURE EVOLUTIONARY FINANCE T. Hens, University of Zurich, Dept of Economics, Zurich, Switzerland Discussant: F. Vega-Redondo, Universidad de Alicante, Fundamentos del Analisis Economico, Alicante, Spain -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 14:00 - 15:30 ROOM B2-1031 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Plenary Session: PRESIDENTIAL ADDRESS ON MODES OF ECONOMIC GOVERNANCE A.K. Dixit, Princeton University, Department of Economics, Princeton NJ, USA -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 16:30 - 18:00 ROOM B2-2024 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- LONG MEMORY II Chairperson: L. Mayoral , Spain PROPERTIES OF NONLINEAR TRANSFORMATIONS OF FRACTIONALLY INTEGRATED PROCESSES I. Dittmann, C.W.J. Granger, Department of Economics, Humboldt-Universitaet zu Berlin, Berlin, Germany A NEW MINIMUM DISTANCE ESTIMATION TECHNIQUE FOR ARFIMA PROCESSES L. Mayoral, Universitat Autonoma de Barcelona , Economics Dept., Bellaterra, Barcelona, Spain ADAPTING TO UNKNOWN DISTURBANCE AUTOCORRELATION IN REGRESSION WITH LONG MEMORY J. Hidalgo, London School of Economics, UK -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 16:30 - 18:00 ROOM B2-2064 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- VALUE AT RISK Chairperson: S. Laurent , Belgium VALUE-AT-RISK FOR LONG AND SHORT TRADING POSITIONS S. Laurent, P. Giot, Universite de Liege, Economics Dept., Liege, Belgium EVALUATION OF OUT-OF-SAMPLE PROBABILITY DENSITY FORECASTS WITH APPLICATIONS TO S&P 500 STOCK PRICES Y. Hong, Department of Economics & Department of Statistical Science, Cornell University, Ithaca NY, USA EVALUATING PREDICTIVE PERFORMANCE OF VALUE-AT-RISK MODELS IN EMERGING MARKETS: A REALITY CHECK B. Saltoglu, Marmara University, Turkey -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 16:30 - 18:00 ROOM B2-2106 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- COINTEGRATION AND INFERENCE Chairperson: C. Mueller , Germany WEAK EXOGENEITY IN PARTIALLY NONSTATIONARY MODELS A. Aznar, M. Salvador, University of Zaragoza, Economic Analysis, Zaragoza, Spain TESTING FOR STATIONARITY IN A COINTEGRATED SYSTEM R.M. Kunst, University of Vienna, Department of Economics, Vienna, Austria ON THE EFFECTS OF AGGREGATING COINTEGRATED VARIABLES OVER TIME C. Mueller, Humboldt University at Berlin, Statistics and Econometrics, Berlin, Germany -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 16:30 - 18:00 ROOM B2-2060 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- HYPOTHESIS TESTS II Chairperson: E. Flachaire , UK TESTING DISTRIBUTIONAL ASSUMPTIONS: A GMM APPROACH C. Bontemps, M. Nour, LEEA, CENA, Toulouse, France MOST EFFICIENT TESTS ROBUST TO HETEROSKEDASTICITY OF UNKNOWN FORM E. Flachaire, London School of Economics, STICERD, London, UK AN UNBIASED AND POWERFUL TEST FOR SUPERIOR PREDICTIVE ABILITY P.R. Hansen, Department of Economics, Brown University, Providence RI, USA -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 16:30 - 18:00 ROOM B2-2013 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- MATCHING ESTIMATION: APPLICATIONS Chairperson: S. Prantl , Germany THE IMPACT OF AN ASSOCIATIVE STRATEGY (THE PROFO PROGRAM) ON SMALL AND MEDIUM ENTERPRISES IN CHILE J.M. Benavente, G. Crespi, University of Oxford, Economics, Oxford, UK THE ROLE OF GOVERNMENT FINANCE FOR NEW FIRM SURVIVAL: A MICROECONOMETRIC EVALUATION S. Prantl, University of Mannheim, Department of Economics, Mannheim, Germany ESTIMATING THE EFFECTS OF WAGE SUBSIDIES ON THE LABOUR DEMAND IN WEST-GERMANY USING THE IAB ESTABLISHMENT PANEL R. Hujer, M. Caliendo, D. Radic, J.W. Goethe-University of Frankfurt, Dep. of Economics, Frankfurt, Germany -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 16:30 - 18:00 ROOM B2-2044 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- BUSINESS CYCLESS II Chairperson: A. Vredin , Sweden MONETARY POLICY, INFLATION AND UNEMPLOYMENT: A COMMON TRENDS MODEL A. Warne, A. Vredin, T. Jacobson, P. Jansson, Research Department, Sveriges Riksbank, Stockholm, Stockholm, Sweden CREDIT, THE STOCK MARKET, AND OIL: FORECASTING U.S. GDP J. Muellbauer, L. Nunziata, Nuffield College, Department of Economics, Oxford, UK -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 16:30 - 18:00 ROOM B2-2055 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- FINANCIAL CRISES Chairperson: R. Gencay , Canada AN INFORMATION THEORETIC APPROACH TO MODEL UNCERTAINTY: AN APPLICATION TO MODELLING FINANCIAL CRISES OF THE 1990S M. Weeks, M. Stone, Faculty of Economics and Politics, University of Cambridge, Cambridge, UK MODELLING CURRENCY CRISES IN EMERGING MARKETS: A DYNAMIC PROBIT MODEL WITH UNOBSERVED HETEROGENEITY AND AUTOCORRELATED ERRORS E. Falcetti, M.M. Tudela, EBRD, Office of the Chief Economist, London, UK OVERNIGHT BORROWING, INTEREST RATES AND EXTREME VALUE THEORY R. Gencay, F. Selcuk, University of Windsor, Department of Economics, Windsor, Ontario, Canada -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 16:30 - 18:00 ROOM B2-2097 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SIMULATION METHODS Chairperson: Z. Sandor , The Netherlands THE SIMULATED NEWTON RAPHSON METHOD M. Billio, A. Monfort, C.P. Robert, Universita Ca Foscari Venezia, Scienze Economiche, Venice VE, Italy ALTERNATIVE SAMPLING METHODS FOR ESTIMATING MULTIVARIATE NORMAL PROBABILITIES Z. Sandor, P. Andras, Erasmus University Rotterdam, Econometric Institute, Rotterdam, The Netherlands ANALYTICAL INDIRECT INFERENCE V. Zinde-Walsh, J.W. Galbraith, McGill University, Economics Dept,. Montreal, QB, Canada -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 16:30 - 18:00 ROOM B2-2120 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RESIDENTIAL MOBILITY / MIGRATION Chairperson: M.D. Collado , Spain HOW MUCH WILL IMMIGRATION HELP TO SUSTAIN THE WELFARE STATE IN SPAIN M.D. Collado, I. Iturbe-Ormaetxe, G. Valera, Universidad de Alicante, Fundamentos del Analisis Economico, San Vicente, Alicante, Spain MODELLING HOUSING TENURE AND LABOUR MOBILITY: AN EMPIRICAL INVESTIGATION C. Barcelo, CEMFI, Madrid, Spain MOBILITY, TENURE CHOICE AND BORROWING CONSTRAINTS : AN EMPIRICAL EXAMINATION OF THE FRENCH CASE L.B. Gobillon, D. Le Blanc, CREST (INSEE-MK2), Department of Microeconometrics, Malakoff, France IMMIGRATION FROM THE EASTERN BLOCK AND THE FORMER SOVIET UNION TO ISRAEL: WHO IS COMING WHEN? L. Locher, Bonn Graduate School of Economics,, Bonn, Germany -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 16:30 - 18:00 ROOM B2-4030 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- INEQUALITY AND POVERTY Chairperson: R. Vazquez-Alvarez , Ireland POVERTY IN ITALY IN THE 1980S AND THE 1990S: A MEASUREMENT ERROR APPROACH N. Rosati, University College London, Statistical Science, London, UK RISING HUMAN CAPITAL BUT CONSTANT INEQUALITY: THE EDUCATION COMPOSITION EFFECT IN BRAZIL N.A. Menezes-Filho, R. Fernandes, P. Picchetti, University of Sao Paulo, Economics, Sao Paulo, SP, Brazil POVERTY AND PERMANENT INCOME: A METHODOLOGY FOR CROSS-SECTION DATA R.H. Abul Naga, E. Bolzani, University of Lausanne, DEEP, Lausanne, Switzerland -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 16:30 - 18:00 ROOM B2-4021 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- LABOUR DEMAND Chairperson: T. Debrand , France EXPLAINING THE CHANGE IN THE SKILL STRUCTURE OF LABOUR DEMAND IN NORWEGIAN MANUFACTURING K.G. Lindquist, T. Skjerpen, Central Bank of Norway, Research Department, Oslo, Norway HIRINGS AND FIRINGS: DYNAMIC LABOR DEMAND ANALYSIS T. Debrand, M. Pauchet, OFCE, Paris, France EMPLOYMENT CHANGES, THE STRUCTURE OF ADJUSTMENT COSTS, AND FIRMS' SIZE O.A. Nilsen, F. Schiantarelli, K.G. Salvanes, University of Bergen, Department of Economics, Bergen, Norway -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 16:30 - 18:00 ROOM B1-121 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- DECISION THEORY Chairperson: W. Gaertner , Germany THE BERNOULLI-LAPLACE THEOREM VIA ROTHSCHILD-STIGLITZ G. Costa, Universita di Pisa, Dip. di Sc. Economiche, Pisa, Italy CHOICE AND PROCEDURES W. Gaertner, Y. Xu, University of Osnabrueck, Dept. of Economics, Osnabrueck, Germany ATTITUDE TOWARDS INFORMATION AND NON-EXPECTED UTILITY PREFERENCES: A CHARACTERIZATION BY CHOICE FUNCTIONS M.A. Diaye, Universite D'Evry (EPEE), Economics Dept., Evry, France -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 16:30 - 18:00 ROOM B1-122 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ELECTIONS AND POLITICAL ECONOMY Chairperson: S. Price , UK REFERENDUMS, CITIZEN 'S INICIATIVES AND THE QUALITY OF PUBLIC GOODS : THEORY AND EVIDENCE FROM SWISS CANTONS 1970-96 I.T. Barankay, University of Warwick, Department of Economics, Coventry, UK ELECTORAL UNCERTAINTY, FISCAL POLICY AND ECONOMIC GROWTH: THEORY AND EVIDENCE FROM THE UK AND A PANEL OF PARLIAMENTARY DEMOCRACIES G. Economides, S. Price, D. Asteriou, A. Philippopoulos, University of Cyprus, Economics Dept, Nicosia , Cyprus LEARNING IN ELECTIONS AND VOTER TURNOUT EQUILIBRIA A. Dhillon, S. Demichelis, University of Warwick, Economics, Coventry, UK COMPETITION OF POLITICIANS FOR INCENTIVE CONTRACTS H.A. Gersbach, University of Heidelberg, Alfred-Weber-Institut, Heidelberg, Germany -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 16:30 - 18:00 ROOM B1-123 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- EVOLUTIONARY GAMES III Chairperson: T. Riechmann , Germany IDIOSYNCRATIC AND AGGREGATE TIME-VARYING MUTATION RATES IN COORDINATION GAMES H. Houba, X.F. Tieman, Free University, Econometrics, Amsterdam, The Netherlands EVOLUTIONARY LEARNING IN THE ULTIMATUM GAME T. Riechmann, University of Hannover, Economics, Hannover, Germany STOCHASTIC BETTER-REPLY DYNAMICS IN GAMES J. Josephson, Stockholm School of Economics, Department of Economics, Ithaca, NY, USA -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 16:30 - 18:00 ROOM B1-125 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- JOINT VENTURES Chairperson: G. Von Graevenitz , UK JOINT OWNERSHIP AND INCOMPLETE CONTRACTS: THE CASE OF PERFECTLY SUBSTITUTABLE INVESTMENTS S. Rosenkranz, P.W. Schmitz, University of Bonn, Department od Economics III, Bonn, Germany INTERNATIONAL JOINT VENTURE AND THE TECHNOLOGY OF THE FUTURE A. Mukherjee, S. Marjit, T. Kabiraj, Keele University, Economics, Keele, Staffordshire, UK THE COMPLEMENTARITY OF RJV'S AND SUBSIDIES WHEN ABSORPTIVE CAPACITY MATTERS G. Von Graevenitz, University College London, Economics Dept., London, UK -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 16:30 - 18:00 ROOM B1-126 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- LEARNING AND MACROECONIMIC DYNAMICS Chairperson: P. Madden , UK EXPECTATIONS AND THE STABILITY PROBLEM FOR OPTIMAL MONETARY POLICIES S.M.S. Honkapohja, G.W. Evans, E.G. W., University of Helsinki, Department of Economics, Helsinki, Finland IMPERFECTLY COMPETITIVE CYCLES WITH KEYNESIAN AND WALRASIAN FEATURES P. Madden, L. Kaas, University of Manchester, School of Economics, Manchester, UK ADAPTIVE LEARNING AND THE CYCLICAL BEHAVIOR OF OUTPUT AND INFLATION A. Klaus, CSEF, Salerno, Italy, Center for Studies in Economics and Finance, Raito, (SA), Italy -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 16:30 - 18:00 ROOM B1-129 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- MONEY Chairperson: A. Schabert , Germany HABIT PERSISTENCE AND BELIEFS: LESSONS FOR THE EFFECTS OF MONETARY POLICY S. Auray, F. Collard, P. Fave, P. Feve, Universit? de Nantes and GREMAQ, Economics Dept., Toulouse, France, France INTEREST RATE RULES IN A CASH-IN-ADVANCE ECONOMY WITH CONSTRAINED GOVERNMENT LIABILITIES A. Schabert, University of Cologne, Economics, Cologne, Germany MONEY AND INFORMATION A. Berentsen, G. Rocheteau, University of Bern, Economics, Bern, Switzerland BANK INTERMEDIATION AND LIQUIDITY EFFECTS IN THE PRESENCE OF A FRICTIONLESS BOND MARKET T. Einarsson, University of Iceland, Dept. of Economics, Reykjavik, Iceland -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 16:30 - 18:00 ROOM B1-232 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- WELFARE ECONOMICS II Chairperson: R. Van Den Brink SOCIAL AGGREGATION WITHOUT THE EXPECTED HYPOTHESIS P. Mongin, C. Blackorby, D. Donaldson, CNRS et Ecole Polytechnique, Laboratoire d'Econometrie, Paris, France EDUCATION, DISTRIBUTIVE JUSTICE, AND ADVERSE SELECTION R.J. Gary-Bobo, M. Fleurbaey, D. Maguain, University of Cergy-Pontoise, Economics, Cergy-Pontoise, France REGULAR DISTRIBUTIVE SOCIAL SYSTEMS J. Mercier Ythier, Universite de Paris I and IDEP-GREQAM, Economics Dept., Paris, France ON TWO NEW SOCIAL CHOICE CORRESPONDENCES R. Van Den Brink, P. Borm, R. Levinsky, M. Slikker, Tilburg University, Econometrics and Operations Research, Utrecht, The Netherlands -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 16:30 - 18:00 ROOM B1-231 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- OLG MODELS Chairperson: C.H.N. Weddepohl , The Netherlands DYNAMIC EFFICIENCY AND PARETO OPTIMALITY IN A STOCHASTIC OLG MODEL WITH PRODUCTION A. Kaul, M. Barbie, M. Hagedorn, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA), Germany TRADING COUNTABLY MANY INDIVISIBLES J.A.A. Laine, L. Gilbert, CREST-ENSAI, Departement d''Economie, Bruz, France BALANCED EQUILIBRIA IN OG-MODELS: EXISTENCE AND STABILITY FOR CES UTILITY FUNCTIONS C.H.N. Weddepohl, University of Amsterdam, Quantitative Economics Dept., Amsterdam, The Netherlands -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 16:30 - 18:00 ROOM B1-306 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- AUCTIONS III Chairperson: J. Robert , Canada AUCTIONS AND SHAREHOLDINGS D. Ettinger, CERAS-ENPC, Paris, France AUCTIONS WITH FINANCIAL EXTERNALITIES S. Onderstal, E. Maasland, Tilburg University, Center, Tilburg, Tilburg University Center, The Netherlands THE INSIDER'S CURSE M. Troege, ESCP-EAP, Finance, Paris, France AN EFFICIENT DYNAMIC AUCTION WITH NON-CONVEX COST FUNCTIONS J. Robert, Universite de Montreal, Sciences Economiques, Montreal, QC, Canada -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 16:30 - 18:00 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ECONOMIC DYNAMICS Chairperson: F. Tripier , France OPTIMAL GROWTH WITH SEARCH ON THE PATENTS MARKET: HOW MUCH FOR RESEARCH AND FOR DEVELOPMENT? F. Tripier, University of Paris X Nanterre, MODEM, Nanterre, France DIFFERENTIAL OLIGOPOLY GAMES WHERE THE CLOSED-LOOP MEMORYLESS AND OPEN-LOOP EQUILIBRIA COINCIDE R.P. Cellini, L. Lambertini, L. Lambertini, University of Catania, Department of Economics, Catania, Italy ON SUSTAINED GROWTH UNDER UNCERTAINTY P.A. De Hek, R. Santanu, University of Amsterdam, Department of Economics, Amsterdam, The Netherlands -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 16:30 - 18:00 ROOM B1-307 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TRADE II Chairperson: L. Ricci , USA TRADE AND INDUSTRIAL POLICY OF TRANSITION ECONOMIES J.L. Moraga, J.M. Viaene, Erasmus University Rotterdam, Economics, Rotterdam, The Netherlands PPP AND THE BALASSA SAMUELSON EFFECT: THE ROLE OF THE DISTRIBUTION SECTOR L. Ricci, R. Macdonald, IMF, Washington, DC, USA PREFERENCE EXTERNALITIES AND CONSUMER OPPOSITION TO FREE TRADE E.W. Durbin, Washington University, Olin School of Business, St. Louis, MO, USA -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 16:30 - 18:00 ROOM B1-273 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- UNCERTAINTY AND ORGANIZATIONS Chairperson: K. Zauner , Austria ENTREPRENEURIAL INNOVATION M.J. Ryan, L. Rigotti, R. Vaithianathan, Australian National University, Economics, Canberra, ACT, Australia LEARNING, NON-EQUILIBRIUM BELIEFS, AND NON-PECUNIARY PAYOFFS IN AN EXPIREMENTAL GAME K. Zauner, M. Costa-Gomes, University of Vienna, Department of Business Studies, Vienna, Austria OPTIMAL PORTFOLIOS WITH ONE SAFE AND ONE RISKY ASSET: EFFECTS OF THE CORPORATE GOVERNANCE F. Laurent, C. At, GATE, Economics Dept., Ecully, GATE, Economics, Ecully, France -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Wednesday, August 29, 2001 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 09:00 - 10:30 ROOM B2-2024 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- DURATION ANALYSIS Chairperson: J.A.F. Machado , Portugal QUANTILE REGRESSION ANALYSIS OF TRANSITION DATA J.A.F. Machado, P. Portugal, Economics Department, Universidade Nova de Lisboa, Portugal TESTING THE PROPORTIONAL HAZARDS MODEL WITH CONTINUOUS COVARIATE AGAINST MONOTONE ORDERING A. Bhattacharjee, S. Das, Department of Applied Economics, University of Cambridge, Cambridge, UK THE UNOBSERVED HETEROGENEITY DISTRIBUTION IN DURATION ANALYSIS J.H. Abbring, G.J. Van Den Berg, Free University, Department of Economics, Amsterdam, The Netherlands -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 09:00 - 10:30 ROOM B2-2064 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- PANEL DATA MODELS Chairperson: A. Raknerud , Norway SPECIFICATION AND ESTIMATION OF RANDOM EFFECTS MODELS WITH SERIAL CORRELATION OF GENERAL FORM S. Karlsson, J. Skoglund, Stockholm School of Economics, Economic Statistics, Stockholm, Sweden IDENTIFICATION, ESTIMATION AND TESTING IN PANEL DATA MODELS WITH ATTRITION: THE ROLE OF THE MAR ASSUMPTION A. Raknerud, Research Department, Statistics Norway, Research Department, Oslo, Norway TESTING PANEL DATA REGRESSION MODELS WITH SPATIAL ERROR CORRELATION B. Baltagi, S.H. Song, W. Koh, Department of Economics, Texas A&M University, College Station, TX, USA -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 09:00 - 10:30 ROOM B2-2106 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- LONG MEMORY: APPLICATIONS Chairperson: J.J. Dolado , Spain INFLATION, FORECAST INTERVALS AND LONG MEMORY REGRESSION MODELS M. Ooms, C.S. Bos, C.S. Bos, P.H. Franses, P.H. Franses, Department of Econometrics and OR Faculty of Economics, Vrije Universiteit, The Netherlands AN ANALYSIS OF INFLATION RATES IN THE EUROPEAN UNION USING WAVELETS: STRONG EVIDENCE AGAINST UNIT ROOTS E. Pons-Fanals, J. Suribach-Caralt, Econometrics, Statistics and Spanish Economy, Universitat de Barcelona, Barcelona, Spain LONG RANGE DEPENDENCE IN SPANISH POLITICAL OPINION POLL SERIES J.J. Dolado, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid, Spain -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 09:00 - 10:30 ROOM B2-2060 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- FINANCIAL ECONOMETRICS: HIGH FREQUENCY DATA Chairperson: J. Grammig , Belgium IDENTIFYING COMMON LONG-RANGE DEPENDENCE IN VOLUME AND VOLATILITY USING HIGH-FREQUENCY DATA R.J. Liesenfeld, Eberhard-Karls-Universitaet, Department of Economics, Tuebingen, Germany WHERE DO INFORMED TRADERS TRADE? EVIDENCE FROM FRENCH MARKETS S. Vandelanoite, P. Alphonse, G. Capelle-Blancard, University Paris 1, Paris, France PRICE DISCOVERY IN INTERNATIONAL EQUITY TRADING J. Grammig, M. Melvin, C. Schlag, Universite Catholique de Louvain, CORE, Louvain-la-Neuve, Belgium ON THE (INTRADAILY) SEASONALITY, DYNAMICS AND DURATIONS ZERO OF A FINANCIAL POINT PROCESS D. Veredas, CORE, Louvain La Neuve, Belgium -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 09:00 - 10:30 ROOM B2-2013 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- FORECASTING AND LEADING INDICATORS Chairperson: H. Erkel-Rousse , France AGGREGATE VERSUS DISAGGREGATE SURVEY-BASED INDICATORS OF ECONOMIC ACTIVITY J. Mitchell, R.J. Smith, M.R. Weale, National Institute of Economic and Social Research, NIESR, London, UK THE MISSING LINK: USING THE NBER RECESSION INDICATOR TO CONSTRUCT COINCIDENT AND LEADING INDICES OF ECONOMIC ACTIVITY J.V. Issler, F. Vahid, Getulio Vargas Foundation, Graduate School of Economics -- EPGE, Rio de Janeiro, RJ, Brazil SHORT-TERM ANALYSIS AND FORECASTING OF THE FRENCH ECONOMIC ACTIVITY USING BUSINESS SURVEY DATA: THOSE RELATIVE TO SERVICE SECTORS MATTER H. Erkel-Rousse, F. Bouton, C. Picart, INSEE, Business Survey Department, Montrouge, France -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 09:00 - 10:30 ROOM B2-2044 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- COINTEGRATION: APPLICATIONS II Chairperson: H.B. Nielsen , Denmark AN I(2) COINTEGRATION ANALYSIS OF PRICE AND QUANTITY FORMATION IN DANISH MANUFACTURED EXPORTS H.B. Nielsen, Institute of Economics, University of Copenhagen, Copenhagen, Denmark EMPLOYMENT ADJUSTMENT IN SLACK AND TIGHT LABOUR MARKETS Q.F. Akram, R. Nymoen, Norges Bank, Research, Oslo, Norway SOURCES OF GERMAN UNEMPLOYMENT: A STRUCTURAL VECTOR ERROR CORRECTION ANALYSIS R. Brueggemann, Institut fuer Statistik und Oekonometrie, Humboldt University, Berlin, Germany INTEREST RATE LINKAGES: A KALMAN FILTER APPROACH TO DETECTING STRUCTURAL CHANGE G.M. Caporale, M.R. Barassi, S.G. Hall, Business School, South Bank University, London, UK -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 09:00 - 10:30 ROOM B2-2055 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SEMI- AND NON-PARAMETRIC METHODS II Chairperson: J.M. Rodriguez-Poo , Spain SPECTRAL METHOD FOR DECONVOLVING A DENSITY J.P. Florens, M. Carrasco, Universite des Sciences, Sociales de Toulouse, Gremaq-Idei, Toulouse, France SEMIPARAMETRIC ESTIMATION OF SEPARABLE MODELS WITH POSSIBLY LIMITED DEPENDENT VARIABLES J.M. Rodriguez-Poo, S. Sperlich, P. Vieu, Universidad de Cantabria, Departamento de Economia, Santander, Cantabria, Spain A SIMPLE NONPARAMETRIC LONG-RUN CORRELATION ESTIMATOR P.H. Albuquerque, Central Bank of Brazil, Studies and Research Department, Brasilia DF, Brazil -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 09:00 - 10:30 ROOM B2-2097 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- HEALTH / SMOKING Chairperson: C. Monfardini , Italy FINANCIAL INCENTIVES AND TREATMENT INTENSITY WITH A DISCRETE DISTRIBUTION OF PATIENT TYPES C. Monfardini, D. Fabbri, University of Bologna, Dept. of Economics, Bologna, Italy SMOKING AND LIFE EXPECTANCY J. Adda, V. Lechene, Department of Economics, University College London, London, UK THE DEMAND FOR PHYSICIANS SERVICES ACROSS THE EUROPEAN UNION M. Martinez-Granado, S. Jimenez-Martin, J.M. Labeaga, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid, Department of Economics, Madrid, Spain -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 09:00 - 10:30 ROOM B2-2120 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- EMPIRICAL INDUSTRIAL ORGANIZATION II Chairperson: M. Rambonilaza , France COMPETITION AND DIFFUSION OF PC OPERATING SYSTEMS T. Kretschmer, INSEAD, Fontainebleau, France BLOOD SWEAT AND TEARS: HOW MUCH IS UNOBSERVABLE EFFORT WORTH M. Rambonilaza, J.L. Arcand, CERDI, Economics of the University of Auvergne, Paris, France LEARNING CURVE OPTIMIZATION AND THE 1986 SEMICONDUCTOR TRADE ARRANGEMENT S. Park, SUNY at Stony Brook, Economics, Stony Brook, NY, USA -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 09:00 - 10:30 ROOM B2-4030 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- WAGES / HEDONIC PRICING Chairperson: S.A. Peters , UK DO FIRMS REALLY SHARE RENTS WITH THEIR WORKERS? D.N. Margolis, K.G. Salvanes, Universite; Paris 1, Pantheon-Sorbonne, TEAM, Paris, France THE PRICING OF PERSONAL SERVICES S.A. Peters, P.G. Moffatt, Manchester University, School of Economic Studies, Manchester, UK WHAT IS THE MARGINAL PRODUCTIVITY OF APPRENTICES ? W. Schwerdt, D. Fougere, CREST - INSEE, Laboratoire de MicroEconometrie, Malakoff, France -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 09:00 - 10:30 ROOM B2-4021 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- MULTI-COUNTRY PANELS AND COINTEGRATION Chairperson: M.A. Dimitz , Austria OUTPUT GAPS IN EUROPEAN MONETARY UNION M.A. Dimitz, Oesterreichische Nationalbank, Foreign Research Division, Vienna, Austria TESTING FOR OUTPUT CONVERGENCE: A RE-EXAMINATION A. Garcia Pascual, Y.W. Cheung, University of Munich, Economics, Munich, Germany OUTPUT AND INFLATION IN THE LONG RUN N.R. Ericsson, J.S. Irons, R.W. Tryon, Federal Reserve Board, Division of International Finance, Washington, DC, USA -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 09:00 - 10:30 ROOM B1-121 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- BANK REGULATION REGULATOR REPUTATION AND OPTIMAL BANKING COMPETITION POLICY A.D. Morrison, Said Business School, Finance, Oxford, UK ARE BANKS EXCESSIVELY MONITORED U.W. Birchler, Swiss National Bank, Zuerich, Switzerland THE EFFECTS OF COMPETITION ON BANK'S RISK TAKING WITH AND WITHOUT DEPOSIT INSURANCE J.P. Niinimeki, Bank of Finland, Helsinki, Finland -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 09:00 - 10:30 ROOM B1-122 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- DEBT AND FINANCIAL ARCHITECTURE Chairperson: J. Orrillo , Brazil OUTSIDE COLLATERAL, PRESERVING THE VALUE OF INSIDE COLLATERAL AND SORTING D. Schaefer, Freie Universitat Berlin, Department of Banking and Finance, Berlin, Germany MAKING PROMISES WITH DEFAULT IN INFINITE -HORIZON ECONOMIES J. Orrillo, Universidade de Brasilia, Economia, Brasilia-DF, Brazil ANALYSING UDROP A. Lindner, Goethe University, Economics, Frankfurt am Main, Germany CONDITIONALITY AND DEBT RELIEF T. Cordella, G. Dell Ariccia, Research Department, International Monetary Fund, Washington, D.C., USA -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 09:00 - 10:30 ROOM B1-125 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ENVIRONMENT Chairperson: P.E. Hatzipanayotou , Greece OPTIMAL ENVIRONMENTAL TAXATION AND ENFORCEMENT POLICY P. Bontems, J.M. Bourgeon, INRA, Department of Economics, Toulouse, France CAN CROSS-BORDER POLLUTION REDUCE POLLUTION? P.E. Hatzipanayotou, S. Lahiri, M.S. Michael, International and European Economic Studies (DIEES), Athens University of Economics and Business (AUEB), Athens, Greece PRICES VS QUANTITIES: THE IRRELEVANCE OF IRREVERSIBILITY F.M. Baldursson, N.H. Von Der Fehr, Department of Economics, University of Iceland, Reykjavik, Iceland COOPERATION IN INTERNATIONAL ENVIRONMENTAL NEGOTIATIONS DUE TO A PREFERENCE FOR EQUITY A. Lange, C. Vogt, Interdisciplinary Institute for Environmental Economics, and Centre for European Economic Research, Dept. of Economics, Heidelberg, Germany -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 09:00 - 10:30 ROOM B1-126 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- MECHANISM DESIGN III Chairperson: S. Severinov , USA A MARKOVIAN REVELATION PRINCIPLE FOR COMMON AGENCY GAMES G. Calzolari, A. Pavan, Department of Economics, University of Bologna, Bolgna, Italy CONTRACTING WITH IMPERFECT COMMITMENT AND THE REVELATION PRINCIPLE H. Bester, R. Strausz, R. Strausz, Department of Economics, Free University Berlin, Berlin, Germany OPTIMAL MENUS OF LINEAR CONTRACTS IN PORTFOLIO SELECTION MODELS D. Garcia, Tuck School of Business, Dartmouth College, Finance and Economics, Hanover, NH, USA COMMUNICATION COSTS AND THE REVELATION PRINCIPLE S. Severinov, University of Wisconsin, Dept of Economics, Middleton WI, USA -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 09:00 - 10:30 ROOM B1-129 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- MONETARY UNION Chairperson: A. Carare , USA WAGE SETTING AND OPENNESS UNDER DIFFERENT MONETARY REGIMES M. Schwarz, University of Mainz, Institut fuer Allgemeine und Aussenwirtschaftstheorie, Welderweg, Mainz, Germany OPTIMUM CURRENCY AREAS: THE RELEVANCE OF SHOCKS, LABOUR MOBILITY AND CENTRAL-BANK OBJECTIVE FUNCTIONS R. Frey, Universitat Rostock, Lehrstuhl Aussenwirtschaft, Rostock, Germany THE CHOICE OF MONETARY POLICY OBJECTIVES IN A MONETARY UNION A. Carare, X. Lin, C.E. Walsh, IMF, Washington D.C., USA CURRENCY SUBSTITUTION AND NETWORK EXTERNALITIES P. Reding, J.A. Morales, University of Namur, Economics, Namur, Belgium -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 09:00 - 10:30 ROOM B1-231 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- MULTI-UNIT AUCTIONS Chairperson: S. Sareen , Canada MULTI-UNIT PAY-YOUR-BID AUCTION WITH ONE-DIMENSIONAL MULTI-UNIT DEMANDS B. Lebrun, Universite Laval, Qubec, Canada BIDDING BEHAVIOR IN MULTI-UNIT AUCTIONS. AN EXPERIMENTAL INVESTIGATION V. Grimm, D. Engelmann, Humboldt University at Berlin, Institute of Economic Theory I, Berlin, Germany COORDINATION IN SOTHERN ONTARIO TIMBER AUCTIONS S. Sareen, Bank of Canada, Financial Markets, Ottawa ON, Canada -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 09:00 - 10:30 ROOM B1-232 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- NETWORKS AND COMPETITION POLICY Chairperson: D.S. Jeon , Spain FUNCTIONAL QUALITY DEGRADATION OF SOFTWARE WITH NETWORK EXTERNALITIES J.H. Hahn, Keele University, Economics, Keele, Staffordshire, UK INTERNATIONAL TELECOMMUNICATIONS PRICING: DOES A SCOPE FOR REFORM EXIST? S. Fabrizi, University of Toulouse, GREMAQ, Toulouse, France COLLECTIVE VS INDIVIDUAL SALE OF TV RIGHTS S. Falconieri, F. Palomino, J. Sakovics, Tilburg University, The Netherlands, University of Edinburgh, Scotland, UK ON THE RECEIVER PAYS PRINCIPLE D.S. Jeon, The University of Pompeu Fabra, Dept. of Economics and Business, Barcelona, Spain -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 09:00 - 10:30 ROOM B1-306 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- OPTIMAL TAX Chairperson: D. Sonedda , Italy TOWARDS IMPERFERCT LABOR MARKET AND OPTIMAL TAXATION G. Piaser, C. Hariton, Universite de Toulouse, Gremaq, Toulouse, France EMPLOYMENT EFFECTS OF PROGRESSIVE TAXATION IN A UNIONISED ECONOMY D. Sonedda, University College London and University of Novara, Economics, Novara, Italy OPTIMAL OIL TAXATION IN A SMALL OPEN ECONOMY B. Manzano, C. De Miguel, Universidad de Vigo, Fundamentos de Analisis Economico, Vigo, Pontevedra, Spain -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 09:00 - 10:30 ROOM B1-307 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- GROWTH AND INEQUALITY I Chairperson: O. Tercieux , France WHY WILL THE KUZNETS CURVE ALWAYS REVERSE ? P. Crifo-Tillet, E. Lehmann, University Lyon 2, GATE, Ecully, France INCOME AND WEALTH INEQUALITY IN A NEOCLASSICAL MODEL L. Maliar, S. Maliar, University of Alicante, Fundamentos del An?lisis Economico, San Vicente, Spain RELATIVE PRICE EVOLUTION, ENGEL'S LAW AND PERSISTENT INEQUALITY O. Tercieux, Eurequa Paris 1, Economics, Paris, France -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 09:00 - 10:30 ROOM B1-273 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- LABOUR III Chairperson: A. Schniewind , Germany WAGES, UNEMPLOYMENT, AND THE UNDERGROUND ECONOMY A.S. Kolm, B. Larsen, Uppsala University, Department of Economics, Uppsala, Sweden UNEMPLOYMENT INSURANCE AND PRECAUTIONARY SAVINGS: TRANSITIONAL DYNAMICS VS. STEADY STATE EQUILIBRIUM T. Weitzenblum, G. Joseph, University of Paris I and II, Paris, France RECOGNITION OF GENERAL EQUILIBRIUM EFFECTS AND UNEMPLOYMENT A. Schniewind, H.A. Gersbach, Universitaet Heidelberg, Alfred Weber Institut, Heidelberg, Germany -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 11:00 - 12:30 ROOM B1-263 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- INVITED LECTURE Chairperson: B. Baltagi , USA MODELLING INCOME PROCESSES WITH LOTS OF HETEROGENEITY M. Browning, University of Copenhagen, Copenhagen, Denmark Discussant: B. Honore, Princeton University, Princeton NJ, USA -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 11:00 - 12:30 ROOM B2-1031 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- INVITED LECTURE LEARNING ABOUT THE DATA FROM LEARNING MODELS A. Marcet, Universitat Pompeu Fabra, Barcelona, Spain Discussant: S.M.S. Honkapohja, University of Helsinki, Department of Economics, Helsinki, Finland -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 14:00 - 15:30 ROOM B2-1031 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Plenary Session: JOINT ECONOMIC THEORY AND ECONOMETRICS INVITED SESSION Joint Economic Theory and Econometrics Invited Session: CAPITAL, INTEREST, AND AGGREGATE INTERTEMPORAL SUBSTITUTION SINCE 1929 C.B. Mulligan, University of Chicago, IL, USA Discussant: A. Scott, London Business School -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 16:00 - 17:30 ROOM B2-2024 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- INEQUALITY MEASUREMENT Chairperson: M.M. Trede , Germany TAILS OF LORENZ CURVES M.M. Trede, C. Schluter, Universitaet zu Koeln, Seminar fuer WiSo-Statistik, Koeln, Germany DISTRIBUTION-FREE INFERENCE FOR WELFARE INDICES UNDER COMPLETE AND INCOMPLETE INFORMATION M.P. Victoria-Feser, F.A. Cowell, Faculty of Psychology and Education, University of Geneva, Geneva, Switzerland IMPROVING FINITE SAMPLE CONFIDENCE INTERVALS FOR INEQUALITY AND POVERTY MEASURES C. Schluter, University of Bristol, Bristol, UK -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 16:00 - 17:30 ROOM B2-4030 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- BOOTSTRAP METHODS: TIME SERIES Chairperson: V. Corradi , UK BOOTSTRAP SPECIFICATION TESTS WITH DEPENDENT OBSERVATIONS AND PARAMETER ESTIMATION ERROR V. Corradi, N.R. Swanson, University of Exeter, Department of Economics, Exeter, UK A HETEROSCEDASTICITY-ROBUST TEST FOR NONLINEARITY IN MEAN R. Becker, S. Hurn, Queensland University of Technology, School of Economics and Finance, Brisbane, Queensland, Australia TESTING FOR NONLINEAR AUTOREGRESSION I. Lobato, Instituto Tecnologico Autonomo de Mexico, Economics Dept., Mexico D.F., , Mexico -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 16:00 - 17:30 ROOM B2-2064 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- VOLATILITY MODELS II Chairperson: W. Polasek , Switzerland BAYESIAN CAUSALITY MEASURES FOR MULTIPLE ARCH MODELS USING MARGINAL LIKELIHOODS W. Polasek, University of Basel, Institute of Statistics and Econometrics, Basel, Switzerland THE SCORE OF CONDITIONALLY HETEROSKEDASTIC DYNAMIC REGRESSION MODELS WITH STUDENT INNOVATIONS, AN AN LM TEST FOR MULTIVARIATE NORMALITY G. Fiorentini, Universidad de Alicante, Spain AN EIGENFUNCTION APPROACH FOR VOLATILITY MODELING N. Meddahi, Universite de Montreal, Montreal, Canada -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 16:00 - 17:30 ROOM B2-2106 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- UNIT ROOT TESTS Chairperson: H. Luetkepohl , Germany SELECTING AMONG NESTED TIME SERIES MODELS WITH UNIT ROOTS AND COINTEGRATION C.C. Sin, Hong Kong Baptist University, Department of Economics, Hong Kong, China A UNIFIED APPROACH TO TESTING FOR STATIONARITY, UNIT ROOTS AND COMMON TRENDS A.C. Harvey, University of Cambridge, Faculty of Economics and Politics, Cambridgeshire, UK TEST PROCEDURES FOR UNIT ROOTS IN TIME SERIES WITH LEVEL SHIFTS AT UNKNOWN TIME H. Luetkepohl, M. Lanne, P. Saikkonen, Institute of Statistics and Econometrics, Humboldt University, Berlin, Germany -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 16:00 - 17:30 ROOM B2-2013 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- EXCHANGE RATES II Chairperson: J.J.J. Groen COINTEGRATION AND THE MONETARY EXCHANGE RATE MODEL REVISITED J.J.J. Groen, De Nederlandsche Bank, Econometric Research and Special Studies Department, Amsterdam, The Netherlands AN APPLIED INTERNATIONAL OVERLAPPING GENERATIONS MODEL J. Fayolle, J. Le Cacheux, J. Chateau, M. Aglietta, V. Touze, M. Juillard, OFCE, Paris, France LEARNING EFFECTS AND EXCHANGE RATE DYNAMICS P. Andrade, Laboratoire de Macroeconomie, CREST, Malakoff, France THE TRANSITION TO A MONETARY UNION: LEARNING ABOUT CONVERGENCE FROM EXCHANGE RATES J. Gomez Biscarri, The Anderson School at UCLA, Business Economics Dept., Los Angeles, CA, USA -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 16:00 - 17:30 ROOM B2-2044 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- HYPOTHESIS TESTS III Chairperson: P. Lavergne , France THE FINITE-SAMPLE DISTRIBUTION OF POST-MODEL-SELECTION ESTIMATORS, AND UNIFORM VERSUS NON-UNIFORM APPROXIMATIONS B.M. Poetscher, H. Leeb, University of Vienna, Department of Statistics, Vienna, Austria ON THE HARM THAT PRETESTING DOES D.L. Danilov, J.R. Magnus, KUB, Econometrics, Tilburg, The Netherlands RATE-OPTIMAL DATA-DRIVEN SPECIFICATION TESTING IN REGRESSION MODELS P. Lavergne, E. Guerre, INRA-ESR,, Toulouse, France -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 16:00 - 17:30 ROOM B2-2055 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- MEASUREMENT ERROR Chairperson: M.B.G. Dumangane , Portugal COVARIATE MEASUREMENT ERROR IN ENDOGENOUS STRATIFIED SAMPLES E.A. Ramalho, University of Bristol, Economics Dept., Bristol, UK M-ESTIMATION WITH MEASUREMENT ERROR CONTAMINATED DURATION DATA M.B.G. Dumangane, A.D. Chesher, ISEG, Mathematics Dept., Lisbon, Portugal THE CONSEQUENCES OF SPECIFICATION ERROR FOR DISTRIBUTIONAL ANALYSIS WITH AN APPLICATION TO INTERGENERATIONAL MOBILITY D.G. Van De Gaer, D. O'Neill, O. Sweetman, F.E.B. - Vakgroep Sociale Economie, Ghent University, Ghent, Belgium -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 16:00 - 17:30 ROOM B2-2097 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- DYNAMIC PROGRAMMING MODELS Chairperson: H.A. Benitez-Silva , USA A DYNAMIC MODEL OF CONTRACEPTIVE CHOICE OF SPANISH COUPLES J.M. Carro, P. Mira, CEMFI, Madrid, Spain ESTIMATING THE TRUE INTERGENERATIONAL EDUCATION CORRELATION FROM A DYNAMIC PROGRAMMING MODEL C. Belzil, J. Hansen, Concordia University, Economics, Montreal, Quebec, Canada A DYNAMIC MODEL OF JOB SEARCH BEHAVIOR OVER THE LIFE CYCLE WITH EMPIRICAL APPLICATIONS H.A. Benitez-Silva, SUNY-Stony Brook, Economics, Stony Brook, NY, USA -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 16:00 - 17:30 ROOM B2-2120 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- COST FUNCTIONS AND PRODUCTION ANALYSIS Chairperson: A. Reynaud , USA CO2 ABATEMENT AND FUEL MIX IN ELECTRIC POWER GENERATION: AN ECONOMETRIC MODEL ON SHORT- AND LONG-TERM PRICE EFFECTS H. Tauchmann, University of Heidelberg, Interdisciplinary Institute for Environmental Economics, Heidelberg, Germany IMPOSING AND TESTING CURVATURE CONDITIONS ON A BOX-COX FUNCTION B.M. Koebel, M. Falk, F. Laisney, University College London, Economics, London, UK DYNAMIC LAND USE. DOWNSCALING TO FIELD-LEVEL BY MAXIMUM OF ENTROPY A. Reynaud, R.E. Howitt, University of California, Agricultural and Resource Economics, Davis, CA, USA -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 16:00 - 17:30 ROOM B1-121 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- FINANCIAL CONTRACTS Chairperson: C. Laux , Germany START-UP FINANCE, MONITORING AND COLLUSION R. Dessi, University of Toulouse, IDEI, Toulouse, France INTERMEDIARIES' COMPETITION FOR RISKY ASSETS AND INCENTIVES FOR MERGERS G. Chiesa, Universita' di Bologna, Economics, Bologna, Italy WHAT DO INTERNAL CAPITAL MARKETS DO? REDISTRIBUTION VS INCENTIVES A. Gautier, H. Florian, UCL-IRES, Economics, Louvain-la-Neuve, France INCENTIVES IN INTERNAL CAPITAL MARKETS: CAPITAL CONSTRAINTS, COMPETITION, AND INVESTMENT OPPORTUNITIES C. Laux, R. Inders, University of Mannheim, Economic Theory, Mannheim, Germany -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 16:00 - 17:30 ROOM B1-122 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- FINANCIAL CRISES Chairperson: D.N. Tambakis , UK A PRIMER ON FINANCIAL CONTAGION M. Sbracia, M. Pericoli, Research Department, Bank of Italy, Rome, Italy DOMESTIC VERSUS EXTERNAL CAUSES/ HOW TO EXPLAIN THE KOREAN ECONOMIC CRISIS M.Y. Robert, , UC Davis and Gremaq Université de Toulouse, Toulouse, France ENDOGENOUS CURRENCY PEG SUSTAINABILITY AND COLLAPSE D.N. Tambakis, UNIVERSITY OF CAMBRIDGE, ECONOMICS, CAMBRIDGE, UK THE DOUBLEPLAY: SIMULTANEOUS SPECULATIVE ATTACKS ON CURRENCY AND EQUITY MARKETS S. Lall, International Monetary Fund, Research Dept., Washington DC, USA -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 16:00 - 17:30 ROOM B1-123 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- FIRM SIZE AND INDUSTRIAL STRUCTURE Chairperson: F. Schivardi , Italy RISK SHARING AND FIRM SIZE M. Giannetti, Stockholm School of Economics, Stockholm, Sweden THE LONG-RUN DYNAMICS OF A COMPETITIVE INDUSTRY WITH FIRM HETEROGENEITY IN A GROWING ECONOMY J. Glachant, J. Duran, Laboratoire de Macroeconomie, Crest-INSEE, Malakoff, France FIRM SIZE DISTRIBUTION AND GROWTH F. Schivardi, P. Pagano, Bank of Italy, Research Department, Rome, Italy -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 16:00 - 17:30 ROOM B1-125 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- FISCAL POLICY Chairperson: L. Von Thadden , Germany INFLATIONARY FINANCING OF GOVERNMENT EXPENDITURE AND ECONOMIC GRIWTH IN AN OPEN ECONOMY T.K. Palokangas, University of Helsinki, Department of Economics, Finland, Finland CONGESTION, EXCLUDABILITY, AND ENDOGENOUS GROWTH I. Ott, University of Lueneburg, Institute of Economics, Lueneburg, Germany BUDGETARY POLICY AND UNEMPLOYMENT DYNAMICS L. Kaas, L. Von Thadden, University of Vienna, Department of Economics, Vienna, Austria BUYBACKS OF DOMESTIC DEBT IN PUBLIC DEBT MANAGEMENT S. Marchesi, University of Warwick, Economics, Pisa, Italy -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 16:00 - 17:30 ROOM B1-231 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- FOUNDATIONS OF GAME THEORY Chairperson: M. Dufwenberg , Sweden LEXICOGRAPHIC PROBABILITIES AND RATIONALIZABILITY IN EXTENSIVE GAMES G.B. Asheim, A. Perea, Department of Economics, University of Oslo, Oslo, Norway WHEN ORDER MATTERS FOR ITERATED STRICT DOMINANCE M. Dufwenberg, M. Stegeman, Stockholm University, Dept of Economics, Stockholm, Sweden -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 16:00 - 17:30 ROOM B1-232 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- GROWTH AND INEQUALITY II Chairperson: A. Desdoigts , France MULTIPLE POLITICO-ECONOMIC REGIMES, INEQUALITY AND GROWTH F. Moizeau, A. Desdoigts, University of Paris 1, EUREQua, Paris, France SOLO, HETEROGENEOUS LABOR, AND WAGE INEQUALITY J. Meckl, S. Zink, S. Zink, University of Konstanz, Economics, Konstanz, Germany -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 16:00 - 17:30 ROOM B1-126 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- OLIGOPOLY Chairperson: D. Silipo , Italy COOPERATION AND COMPETITION IN A DUOPOLY R&D MARKET D. Silipo, A. Weiss, Universita Della Calabria, Economia e Statistica, Cosenza, Italy EFFICIENCY AND SURPLUS BOUNDS IN COURNOT COMPETITION R. Renault, S.P. Anderson, Universite de Caen, GEMMA, Caen CEDEX, France COMMODITY TAXATION AND QUALITY COMPETITION S. Feuerstein, U. Lehmann-Grube, University of Heidelberg, Department of Economics, Heidelberg, Germany -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 16:00 - 17:30 ROOM B1-129 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- EXCHANGE RATES II Chairperson: T. Piskorski , Belgium FOREIGN HOLDINGS OF DOLLARS AND INFORMATION VALUE OF US MONETARY AGGREGATES T. Piskorski, Y. Aksoy, Center for Economic Studies, Katholieke Universiteit Leuven, Economics, Leuven, Belgium A QUANTITATIVE WELFARE ANALYSIS OF THE TRADE OFF BETWEEN THE CURRENCY REGIME AND MACROECONOMICS STABILIZATION L. Dedola, S. Leduc, Bank of Italy, Research Department, Rome, Italy REAL APPRECIATION AND CAPITAL FLOWS TO DEVELOPING COUNTRIES C. Shu, Hong Kong Monetary Authority, Research Department, Hong Kong, China -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 16:00 - 17:30 ROOM B1-306 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- INDUSTRIAL ORGANIZATION II Chairperson: S. Jensen , Norway PRICE DISCRIMINATION AND THREE-PART TARIFFS IN A DUOPOLY S. Jensen, Department of Economics, Norwegian School of Economics and Business Administration, Bergen, Norway THE INCENTIVES TO BUNDLE FOR A STACKELBERG LEADER J. Hinloopen, University of Amsterdam, FEE / F&O, Amsterdam, The Netherlands --------------------------------------------------------------------------------