ESWC 2010: Congress Programme

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THURSDAY 19 AUGUST 2010

DAY OVERVIEW
09:00 - 10:45 PAIRED INVITED SESSIONS
11:15 - 12:45 CONTRIBUTED SESSIONS
13:00 - 14:00 POLICY SESSION
14:15 - 16:15 CONTRIBUTED SESSIONS
16:45 - 18:15 PLENARY SESSION
09:00 - 10:45 PAIRED INVITED SESSIONS

09:00 - 10:45 DECISION THEORY
Chairperson: Larry Samuelson, Yale University
Discussant: Ran Spiegler, Tel Aviv University
Room Yellow River Hall
  AMBIGUITY AND THE BAYESIAN PARADIGM
Massimo Marinacci, Bocconi University
Co-Author: Itzhak (Tzachi) Gilboa, HEC and Tel Aviv University

  
  TEMPTATION
Barton Lipman, Boston University and Wolfgang Pesendorfer, Princeton University
  
09:00 - 10:45 MACROECONOMICS
Chairperson: Harald Uhlig, University of Chicago
Discussant: Steven Davis, University of Chicago
Room Auditorium
  AGGREGATE FLUCTUATIONS AND LABOR MARKET OUTCOMES
Robert Shimer, University of Chicago

  
  FROM WAGES TO WELFARE: DECOMPOSING GAINS AND LOSSES FROM RISING INEQUALITY
Giovanni Violante, New York University
Co-Authors: Jonathan Heathcote, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis and Kjetil Storesletten, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis
  
09:00 - 10:45 ECONOMETRIC THEORY
Chairperson: Rosa Matzkin, University of California, Los Angeles
Discussant: St�phane Bonhomme, CEMFI
Room Century Hall
  HIGH DIMENSIONAL SPARSE ECONOMETRIC MODELS
Victor Chernozhukov, MIT

  
  NONLINEAR ERRORS-IN-VARIABLES MODELS
Susanne Schennach, University of Chicago
  
11:15 - 12:45 CONTRIBUTED SESSIONS

11:15 - 12:45 MATCHING III (THY)
Chairperson: Morimitsu Kurino, Maastricht University
Room Century Hall
  TIERS, PREFERENCE SIMILARITY, AND THE LIMITS ON STABLE PARTNERS
Michihiro Kandori, University of Tokyo
Co-Authors: Fuhito Kojima, Stanford University and Yosuke Yasuda, GRIPS

  
  A SEARCH MODEL OF TWO-SIDED MATCHING WITH TERMS OF TRADE
Hiroyuki ADACHI, SUNY-BUFFALO

  
  HOUSE ALLOCATION WITH OVERLAPPING GENERATIONS: A DYNAMIC MECHANISM DESIGN APPROACH
Morimitsu Kurino, Maastricht University
  
11:15 - 12:45 IMPLEMENTATION (THY)
Chairperson: Rudolf M�ller, Maastricht University
Room 3A
  TRUTHFUL IMPLEMENTATION IN COMPREHENSIVE DOMAINS
Andrew McLennan, University of Queensland
Co-Authors: Juan Carlos Carbajal, University of Queensland and Rabee Tourky, University of Queensland

  
  PERFECT IMPLEMENTATION
Sergei Izmalkov, New Economic School
Co-Authors: Matt Lepinski, BBN Technologies and Silvio Micali, MIT

  
  PATH-MONOTONICITY AND TRUTHFUL IMPLEMENTATION
Rudolf M�ller, Maastricht University
  
11:15 - 12:45 AUCTIONS III (THY)
Chairperson: Roberto Burguet, Institute for Economic Analysis (CSIC)
Room 3C
  SIGNAL-JAMMING IN A SEQUENTIAL AUCTION
Wei Ding, Bonn Graduate School of Economics
Co-Authors: Thomas D. Jeitschko, Michigan State University and Elmar Wolfstetter, Humboldt-University at Berlin

  
  INFORMATION SHARING IN CONTESTS
Johannes M�nster, Free University of Berlin
Co-Authors: Daniel J. Kovenock, University of Iowa and Florian Morath, Max Planck Research Center for Tax Law and Public Finance

  
  LIMITED LIABILITY AND MECHANISM DESIGN IN PROCUREMENT
Roberto Burguet, Institute for Economic Analysis (CSIC)
Co-Authors: Juan Jos� Ganuza, Universitat Pompeu Fabra and Esther Hauk, Institute for Economic Analysis (CSIC)
  
11:15 - 12:45 CONSUMER SEARCH (THY)
Chairperson: Tianle Zhang, The Hong Kong Polytechnic University
Room 3D
  OLIGOPOLISTIC SEARCH MARKETS WITH COSTLY SECOND VISITS
Alexei Parakhonyak, Tinbergen Institute
Co-Author: Maarten Janssen, University of Vienna

  
  OLIGOPOLISTIC MARKETS WITH SEQUENTIAL SEARCH AND ASYMMETRIC INFORMATION
Maarten Janssen, University of Vienna
Co-Authors: Paul Pichler, and Simon Weidenholzer, Universit�t Wien

  
  EQUILIBRIUM PRICE DISPERSION WITH HETEROGENEOUS SEARCHERS
Tianle Zhang, The Hong Kong Polytechnic University
Co-Author: Yongmin Chen, University of Colorado at Boulder
  
11:15 - 12:45 OPTIMAL STOPPING (THY)
Chairperson: Bruno Strulovici, Northwestern University
Room 3F
  GAMBLING IN DYNAMIC CONTESTS
Philipp Strack, University of Bonn
Co-Author: Christian Seel, University of Bonn

  
  UNDISCOUNTED BANDIT PROBLEMS
Godfrey Keller, University of Oxford
Co-Author: Sven Rady, University of Munich

  
  DISCOUNTING AND PATIENCE IN OPTIMAL STOPPING AND CONTROL PROBLEMS
Bruno Strulovici, Northwestern University
Co-Author: John Quah, Oxford University
  

11:15 - 12:45 EXPERIMENTS ON REWARDS AND INCENTIVES (EXP)
Chairperson: Tor Eriksson, Aarhus University
Room 3G
  AN EXPERIMENTAL TEST OF THE DETERRENCE HYPOTHESIS
Hannah Schildberg-Hoerisch, University of Bonn
Co-Author: Christina Strassmair, University of Munich

  
  WHEN WORKERS DO NOT KNOW- ASYMETRIC KNOWLEDGE OF MINIMUM WAGE LAWS AND MINIMUM WAGE LEVELS
Wang Xianghong, Renmin University of China

  
  RESPECT AS AN INCENTIVE
Tor Eriksson, Aarhus University
  

11:15 - 12:45 OPTIONS (FIN)
Chairperson: Chin-Han Chiang, Columbia University
Room 5A
  PUT OPTION IMPLIED RISK-PREMIA IN GENERAL EQUILIBRIUM UNDER RECURSIVE PREFERENCES
Satadru Hore, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston
Co-Authors: Hedibert Lopes, Chicago Booth and Robert McCulloch, University of Texas, Austin

  
  REAL OPTIONS AND CONTINGENT CLAIMS ANALYSIS
Vadim Arkin, Central Economics and Mathematics Institute
Co-Author: Alexander Slastnikov, Central Economics and Mathematics Institute

  
  STOCK RETURNS ON OPTION EXPIRATION DATES
Chin-Han Chiang, Columbia University
  
11:15 - 12:45 CREDIT MARKETS III (FIN)
Chairperson: Tatiana Didier, World Bank
Room 5G
  REGULATING BANKER COMPENSATION FOR BANK SUPERVISORY PURPOSES
Edward Simpson Prescott, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond
Co-Author: Arantxa Jarque, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond

  
  THE MECHANICS OF A GRACEFUL EXIT: INTEREST ON RESERVES AND SEGMENTATION IN THE FEDERAL FUNDS MARKET
Morten Bech, Federal Reserve Bank of New York

  
  INFORMATION ASYMMETRIES AND INSTITUTIONAL INVESTOR MANDATES
Tatiana Didier, World Bank
  
11:15 - 12:45 VOLATILITY I (FIN)
Chairperson: Olivier Scaillet, University of Geneva and Swiss Finance Institute
Room Pearl Hall
  ECONOMETRIC ANALYSIS OF FINANCIAL JUMPS USING EFFICIENT BIPOWER VARIATION
Per Mykland, University of Oxford and University of Chicago
Co-Author: Neil Shephard, University of Oxford

  
  HIGH FREQUENCY COVARIANCE ESTIMATES WITH NOISY AND ASYNCHRONOUS FINANCIAL DATA
Dacheng Xiu, Princeton University
Co-Authors: Yacine Ait-Sahalia, Princeton University and Jianqing Fan, Princeton University

  
  DETECTING SPURIOUS JUMPS IN HIGH FREQUENCY DATA
Olivier Scaillet, University of Geneva and Swiss Finance Institute
Co-Author: Pierre Bajgrowicz, University of Geneva
  

11:15 - 12:45 NEW METHODS IN EMPIRICAL AUCTIONS (IND)
Chairperson: Philippe Fevrier, CREST-LEI
Room 3H
  ON THE ASYMPTOTIC DISTRIBUTION OF THE TRANSACTION PRICE IN A CLOCK MODEL OF A MULTI-UNIT, ORAL, ASCENDING-PRICE AUCTION WITHIN THE COMMON-VALUE PARADIGM
Harry Paarsch, The University of Melbourne
Co-Authors: Han Hong, Stanford University and Pai Xu, University of Hong Kong

  
  PARTICIPATION SCREEN FOR COLLUSION IN AUCTIONS
Janne Tukiainen, HECER

  
  IDENTIFICATION OF MIXTURE MODELS USING SUPPORT VARIATIONS
Philippe Fevrier, CREST-LEI
Co-Author: Xavier d'Haultfoeuille, CREST-INSEE
  
11:15 - 12:45 R&D POLICY: THEORY (IND)
Chairperson: Tong Wang, Toulouse School of Economics
Room 3I
  GOVERNMENT SUBSIDIES FOR RESEARCH PROGRAMS FACING "IF" AND "WHEN" UNCERTAINTY
Jianjun Wu, University of Arizona
Co-Author: David Besanko, Northwestern University, Kellogg School of Management

  
  IMPERFECT PATENT PROTECTION AND INNOVATION
Silvana Krasteva, Texas A&M University

  
  NONOBVIOUSNESS AND SCREENING
Tong Wang, Toulouse School of Economics
Co-Authors: Zonglai Kou, Fudan University and Patrick Rey, Toulouse School of Economics
  

11:15 - 12:45 FINANCIAL CRISES I (INT)
Chairperson: Qianying Chen, Goethe University Frankfurt and Hong Kong Institute for Monetary Research
Room Yellow River Hall
  CREDITLESS RECOVERIES
Bin Li, International Monetary Fund
Co-Authors: Abdul Abiad, International Monetary Fund and Giovanni Dell�Ariccia, International Monetary Fund and CEPR

  
  HOW TO EVALUATE AN EARLY WARNING SYSTEM? TOWARDS A UNIFIED STATISTICAL FRAMEWORK FOR ASSESSING FINANCIAL CRISES FORECASTING METHODS.
Bertrand Candelon, Maastricht University
Co-Authors: Elena-Ivona Dumitrescu, University of Orl�ans and Christophe Hurlin, University of Orl�ans

  
  INTERNATIONAL TRANSMISSION OF BANK AND CORPORATE DISTRESS
Qianying Chen, Goethe University Frankfurt and Hong Kong Institute for Monetary Research
Co-Authors: Gray Dale, International Monetary Fund, Papa N'Diaye, International Monetary Fund, Hiroko Oura, International Monetary Fund and Natalia Tamirisa, International Monetary Fund
  
11:15 - 12:45 TRADE, INNOVATION AND PRODUCTIVITY (INT)
Chairperson: Edwin Lai, Hong Kong University of Science and Technology
Room 3B
  INNOVATION, DIFFUSION AND TRADE: THEORY AND MEASUREMENT
Ana Maria Santacreu, INSEAD

  
  TRADE-INDUCED INDUSTRIALIZATION AND ECONOMIC GROWTH
Jee-Hyeong Park, Seoul National University

  
  INNOVATION AND PATENTABILITY REQUIREMENT IN A GLOBALIZED WORLD
Edwin Lai, Hong Kong University of Science and Technology
Co-Author: Davin Chor, Singapore Management University
  

11:15 - 12:45 SECONDARY AND POST-SECONDARY SCHOOLING (LAB)
Chairperson: Zhong Zhao, Renmin University of China
Room 5D
  VOCATIONAL SCHOOLING VERSUS APPRENTICESHIP TRAINING. EVIDENCE FROM VACANCY DATA
Matthias Parey, University of Essex and Institute for Fiscal Studies

  
  WHY IS FIRST BEST? RESPONSES TO INFORMATION AGGREGATION IN THE US NEWS COLLEGE RANKINGS
Michael Luca, Boston University
Co-Author: Jonathan Smith, Boston University

  
  HUMAN CAPITAL VS. SIGNALING: THE GERMAN REUNIFICATION AS A NATURAL EXPERIMENT
Zhong Zhao, Renmin University of China
Co-Author: Ulf Rinne, IZA
  
11:15 - 12:45 CITIES AND SORTING (LAB)
Chairperson: Yannis Ioannides, Tufts University
Room 5E
  UNEVEN LANDSCAPE AND CITY SIZE DISTRIBUTION
Qiang Li, Shanghai University of Finance and Economics
Co-Author: Sanghoon Lee, Sauder School of Business, the University of British Columbia

  
  THE PHANTOM OF THE OPERA: CULTURAL AMENITIES, HUMAN CAPITAL, AND REGIONAL ECONOMIC GROWTH
Oliver Falck, Ifo Institute for Economic Research
Co-Authors: Michael Fritsch, University of Jena and Stephan Heblich, Max Planck Institute of Economics

  
  LABOR TURNOVER AND URBAN STRUCTURE
Yannis Ioannides, Tufts University
  
11:15 - 12:45 LABOR CONTRACTS I (LAB)
Chairperson: Jeanine Miklos-Thal, Simon School, University of Rochester
Room 5F
  HOW GREEN WAS MY VALLEY? COERCIVE CONTRACT ENFORCEMENT IN 19TH CENTURY INDUSTRIAL BRITAIN
Noam Yuchtman, Harvard University
Co-Author: Suresh Naidu, Harvard University

  
  THE PLAINTIFF�S ROLE IN ENFORCING A COURT RULING: EVIDENCE FROM A LABOR COURT IN MEXICO
Joyce Sadka, Centro de Investigacion Economica
Co-Author: David Kaplan, World Bank

  
  NOMINATION CONTESTS: THEORY AND EMPIRICAL EVIDENCE FROM PROFESSIONAL SOCCER
Jeanine Miklos-Thal, Simon School, University of Rochester
Co-Author: Hannes Ullrich, ZEW
  

11:15 - 12:45 FISCAL POLICY I (MAX)
Chairperson: Volker Grossmann, University of Fribourg
Room Gran Melia B1
  FISCAL STIMULUS AND DISTORTIONARY TAXATION
Harald Uhlig, University of Chicago
Co-Author: Thorsten Drautzburg, University of Chicago

  
  ON THE IDENTIFICATION OF FISCAL POLICY BEHAVIOR
Bing Li, Indiana University

  
  QUANTIFYING OPTIMAL GROWTH POLICY
Volker Grossmann, University of Fribourg
Co-Authors: Thomas M. Steger, University of Leipzig and Timo Trimborn, University of Hannover
  
11:15 - 12:45 FINANCIAL FRICTIONS I (MAX)
Chairperson: La'O Jennifer, MIT
Room Gran Melia B2
  DO CREDIT CONSTRAINTS AMPLIFY MACROECONOMIC FLUCTUATIONS?
Zheng Liu, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco
Co-Authors: Pengfei Wang, Hong Kong University of Science and Technology and Tao Zha, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta and Emory University

  
  A MODEL OF MORAL-HAZARD CREDIT CYCLES
Roger Myerson, University of Chicago

  
  COLLATERAL CONSTRAINTS AND NOISY FLUCTUATIONS
La'O Jennifer, MIT
  
11:15 - 12:45 CONSUMPTION AND RISK SHARING (MAX)
Chairperson: Olga Gorbachev, University of Edinburgh
Room Gran Melia F1
  CONSUMPTION RISK SHARING OVER THE BUSINESS CYCLE: THE ROLE OF SMALL FIRMS' ACCESS TO CREDIT MARKETS
Mathias Hoffmann, International Trade and Finance, IEW, University of Zurich
Co-Author: Iryna Stewen, Institute for Empirical Research in Economics

  
  CONSUMPTION RISK SHARING UNDER PRIVATE INFORMATION WHEN EARNINGS ARE PERSISTENT
Marek Kapicka, UC Santa Barbara
Co-Author: Paul Klein, IIES, Stockholm University

  
  EVOLUTION OF CONSUMPTION VOLATILITY FOR THE LIQUIDITY CONSTRAINED HOUSEHOLDS IN THE US OVER 1983 TO 2004.
Olga Gorbachev, University of Edinburgh
Co-Author: Keshav Dogra, Columbia University
  
11:15 - 12:45 MACROCONOMICS: ADVANCES IN VAR MODELING (MAX)
Chairperson: Domenico Giannone, ECARES-ULB and CEPR
Room Gran Melia F2
  THE ROLE OF BANK CREDIT IN THE INTERNATIONAL BUSINESS CYCLES: AN EMPIRICAL ANALYSIS USING GLOBAL VAR
TengTeng Xu, Cambridge University

  
  TRUSTING THE BANKERS: A NEW LOOK AT THE CREDIT CHANNEL OF MONETARY POLICY
Jos�-Luis Peydr�, European Central Bank
Co-Authors: Matteo Ciccarelli, European Central Bank and Angela Maddaloni, European Central Bank

  
  LARGE BAYESIAN VARS
Domenico Giannone, ECARES-ULB and CEPR
  

11:15 - 12:45 ECONOMICS OF EDUCATION II (PUB)
Chairperson: Pao-Li Chang, Singapore Management University
Room 3E
  EFFICIENT INVESTMENT IN CHILDREN AND IMPLICATIONS FOR POLICY
Hakki Yazici, Sabanci University

  
  COMPETITION BETWEEN STATE UNIVERSITIES
Annalisa Luporini, University of Florence

  
  EDUCATION AND TRADE
Pao-Li Chang, Singapore Management University
Co-Author: Fali Huang, Singapore Management University
  
11:15 - 12:45 PUBLIC FINANCE: EMPIRICAL ISSUES I (PUB)
Chairperson: Terence Cheng, University of Melbourne
Room 3J
  PUBLIC HOUSING UNITS VS. HOUSING VOUCHERS: ACCESSIBILITY, LOCAL PUBLIC GOODS, AND WELFARE
Sinan Sarpca, Koc University
Co-Authors: Charles Leung, City University of Hong Kong and Kuzey Yilmaz, Koc University

  
  CHANGES IN THE INCOME DISTRIBUTION OF THE DUTCH ELDERLY BETWEEN 1989-2020: A DYNAMIC MICROSIMULATION
Marike Knoef, Tilburg University
Co-Authors: Rob Alessie, Groningen University and Adriaan Kalwij, Utrecht University & Tilburg University

 
  DEMAND FOR HOSPITAL CARE AND PRIVATE HEALTH INSURANCE IN A MIXED PUBLIC-PRIVATE SYSTEM: EMPIRICAL EVIDENCE USING A SIMULTANEOUS EQUATION MODELING APPROACH
Terence Cheng, University of Melbourne
Co-Author: Farshid Vahid, Australian National University
  

11:15 - 12:45 POLITICAL COMPETITION (POL)
Chairperson: Oliver Denk, London School of Economics
Room Gran Melia B3
  THE POLITICAL RESOURCE CURSE
Tommaso Nannicini, Bocconi University
Co-Authors: Fernanda Brollo, Bocconi University, Roberto Perotti, Bocconi University and Guido Tabellini, Bocconi University

  
  TYING YOUR ENEMY�S HANDS IN CLOSE RACES: THE POLITICS OF FEDERAL TRANSFERS IN BRAZIL
Fernanda Brollo, BOCCONI UNIVERSITY

  
  THE ECONOMIC EFFECTS OF NATIONAL SWINGS ON POLITICAL JURISDICTIONS: THEORY AND EVIDENCE FROM ENGLISH COUNCILS AND US STATES
Oliver Denk, London School of Economics
  
11:15 - 12:45 POLITICAL ECONOMY: INFORMATION AND ELECTIONS (POL)
Chairperson: Steven Callander, Stanford University
Room Gran Melia B4
  A POLITICAL THEORY OF POPULISM
Konstantin Sonin, New Economic School, Moscow
Co-Authors: Daron Acemoglu, MIT and Georgy Egorov, Northwestern University

  
  STATUS QUO PROTECTION AND VOLUNTARY INFORMATION DISCLOSURE
Sven Feldmann, Melbourne Business School

  
  WHY DOES POLITICAL POWER ALTERNATE?
Steven Callander, Stanford University
  
11:15 - 12:45 MEDIA AND POLITICS (POL)
Chairperson: Oliver Latham, University of Cambridge
Room Gran Melia F5
  MEASURING MEDIA INFLUENCE ON U.S. STATE COURTS
Claire Lim, Stanford University
Co-Authors: Jim Snyder, and David Str�mberg, Stockholm University

  
  MEDIA PROLIFERATION WITH QUASI-RATIONAL CONSUMERS
Daniel Stone, Oregon State University
Co-Author: Jimmy Chan, Shanghai University of Finance and Economics

  
  LAME DUCKS AND THE MEDIA: WHY DOES THE PRESS TURN ON UNPOPULAR GOVERNMENTS?
Oliver Latham, University of Cambridge
  

11:15 - 12:45 DEVELOPMENT: CONFLICT AND TRUST (DEV)
Chairperson: Adam Szeidl, UC Berkeley
Room Gran Melia F3
  IMPLICATIONS OF AN ECONOMIC THEORY OF CONFLICT: HINDU-MUSLIM VIOLENCE IN INDIA
Anirban Mitra, New York University
Co-Author: Debraj Ray, New York University

  
  LONG-RUN LABOR-MARKET CONSEQUENCES OF CIVIL WAR: EVIDENCE FROM SHINING PATH IN PERU
Jose Galdo, Carleton University and IZA

  
  MEASURING TRUST IN PERUVIAN SHANTYTOWNS
Adam Szeidl, UC Berkeley
Co-Authors: Dean Karlan, Yale University, Markus Mobius, Harvard University and Tanya Rosenblat, Iowa State University
  

11:15 - 12:45 TREATMENT EFFECTS I (ECO)
Chairperson: Sergio Firpo, S�o Paulo School of Economics, FGV-SP
Room Yangtze Hall
  NONPARAMETRIC TESTS OF CONDITIONAL TREATMENT EFFECTS
Sokbae Lee, UCL
Co-Author: Yoon-Jae Whang, Seoul National University

  
  CONVEX TREATMENT RESPONSE AND TREATMENT SELECTION
Stefan Boes, University of Zurich

  
  BOUNDS ON FUNCTIONALS OF THE DISTRIBUTION OF TREATMENT EFFECTS
Sergio Firpo, S�o Paulo School of Economics, FGV-SP
Co-Author: Geert Ridder, University of Southern California
  
11:15 - 12:45 PANEL DATA AND SPATIAL DEPENDENCE (ECO)
Chairperson: Arnab Bhattacharjee, University of St Andrews
Room 5B
  ROBUST COVARIANCE MATRIX ESTIMATION FOR LINEAR PANEL MODELS WITH FIXED EFFECTS
Min Seong Kim, UC San Diego

  
  EFFICIENT GMM ESTIMATION OF SPATIAL DYNAMIC PANEL DATA MODELS WITH FIXED EFFECTS
Jihai Yu, University of Kentucky
Co-Author: Lung-fei Lee, Ohio State University

  
  UNDERSTANDING INTERACTIONS IN SOCIAL NETWORKS AND COMMITTEES
Arnab Bhattacharjee, University of St Andrews
Co-Author: Sean Holly, University of Cambridge
  
11:15 - 12:45 GARCH MODELS I (ECO)
Chairperson: Jing Wu, University of Western Ontario
Room 5C
  PARAMETER ESTIMATION IN NONLINEAR AR-GARCH MODELS
Mika Meitz, Koc University
Co-Author: Pentti Saikkonen, University of Helsinki

  
  NON-GAUSSIAN QUASI MAXIMUM LIKELIHOOD ESTIMATION OF GARCH MODELS
Lei Qi, Princeton University
Co-Authors: Jianqing Fan, Princeton University and Dacheng Xiu, Princeton University

  
  THRESHOLD GARCH MODEL: THEORY AND APPLICATION
Jing Wu, University of Western Ontario
  
11:15 - 12:45 STRUCTURAL CHANGE I (ECO)
Chairperson: Isabel Casas, CREATES, Aarhus University
Room 5H
  ASYMPTOTIC DISTRIBUTION THEORY FOR BREAK POINT ESTIMATORS IN MODELS ESTIMATED VIA 2SLS
Otilia Boldea, University of Tilburg
Co-Authors: Alastair R. Hall, University of Manchester and Sanggohn Han, SAS Institute

  
  ESTIMATING A COMMON LOCAL BREAK IN THE TIME TREND FOR LARGE PANEL DATA
Dukpa Kim, University of Virginia

  
  UNSTABLE VOLATILITY: THE BREAK PRESERVING LOCAL LINEAR ESTIMATOR
Isabel Casas, CREATES, Aarhus University
Co-Author: Irene Gijbels, K. U. Leuven
  
11:15 - 12:45 HYPOTHESIS TESTS I (ECO)
Chairperson: Maxwell King, Monash University
Room 5J
  MODEL EQUIVALENCE TESTS IN A PARAMETRIC FRAMEWORK
Pascal Lavergne, Toulouse School of Economics

  
  SYMBOLIC DYNAMICS TO TEST BASIC NULL HYPOTHESES
MARIANO MATILLA-GARCIA, UNED
Co-Authors: Fernando Lopez, Universidad Polit�cnica de Cartagena, Jes�s Mur, Universidad de Zaragoza and Manuel Ruiz, Universidad Polit�cnica de Cartagena

  
  A NEW PROCEDURE FOR MULTIPLE TESTING OF ECONOMETRIC MODELS
Maxwell King, Monash University
Co-Authors: Muhammad Akram, Monash University and Xibin Zhang, Department of Econometrics and Business Statistics, Monash University
  
11:15 - 12:45 SHRINKAGE METHODS (ECO)
Chairperson: Lucrezia Reichlin, London Business School
Room 5I
  SHORT-TERM INFLATION PROJECTIONS: A BAYESIAN VAR APPROACH
Lenza Michele, European Central Bank
Co-Authors: Domenico Giannone, ECARES-ULB and CEPR, Daphne Momferatou, European Central Bank and Luca Onorante, European Central Bank

  
  ADAPTIVE GMM SHRINKAGE ESTIMATION WITH CONSISTENT MOMENT SELECTION
Zhipeng Liao, Department of Economics, Yale University

  
  FORECASTING USING A LARGE NUMBER OF PREDICTORS: IS BAYESIAN SHRINKAGE A VALID ALTERNATIVE TO PRINCIPAL COMPONENTS?
Lucrezia Reichlin, London Business School
Co-Authors: Christine De Mol, ECARES - Universit� Libre de Bruxelles and Domenico Giannone, ECARES-ULB and CEPR
  
13:00 - 14:00 POLICY SESSION

13:00 - 14:00 PLENARY POLICY PANEL II
Chairperson: Fabrizio Zilibotti, University of Zurich
Room Auditorium
  PERSPECTIVES ON CHINESE ECONOMIC GROWTH
Justin Yifu Lin, The World Bank, Barry Naughton, UCSD, Yingyi Qian, University of California, Berkeley and Shang-Jin Wei, Columbia University
  
14:15 - 16:15 CONTRIBUTED SESSIONS

14:15 - 16:15 AUCTIONS IV (THY)
Chairperson: Tymofiy Mylovanov, Penn State University
Room Gran Melia B1
  STRATEGIC SUPPLY FUNCTION COMPETITION WITH PRIVATE INFORMATION
Xavier Vives, IESE Business School and UPF

  
  SPLIT-AWARD AUCTIONS WITH INVESTMENT
Jianpei Li, University of International Business and Economics
Co-Authors: Jiong Gong, University of International Business and Economics and R. Preston McAfee, Yahoo! Research

  
  THE DYNAMICS OF PRICES IN AUCTIONS WITH FINANCIAL CONSTRAINTS
Angel Hernando Veciana, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid
Co-Author: Pablo Beker, University of Warwick

  
  OPTIMAL AUCTION DESIGN AND IRRELEVANCE OF PRIVACY OF INFORMATION
Tymofiy Mylovanov, Penn State University
Co-Author: Thomas Troeger, Univeristy of Bern
  
14:15 - 16:15 PRINCIPLE-AGENT MODELS I (THY)
Chairperson: Rongzhu Ke, The Chinese University of Hong Kong
Room Gran Melia F1
  ON THE FIRST-ORDER APPROACH IN PRINCIPAL-AGENT MODELS WITH HIDDEN BORROWING AND LENDING
Sebastian Koehne, University of Mannheim
Co-Authors: Arpad Abraham, EUI Florence and Nicola Pavoni, University College London

  
  DYNAMIC CONTRACTING WITH STOCHASTIC OUTSIDE OPPORTUNITIES AND COSTLY TERMINATION
Cheng Wang, Fudan University and Iowa State University
Co-Author: Youzhi Yang, Shanghai University of Finance and Economics

  
  REPEATED MORAL HAZARD WITH PRIVATE EVALUATION: WHY THE AGENT'S MIXED STRATEGIES MATTER
Youzhi Yang, Shanghai University of Finance and Economics

  
  A FIXED-POINT METHOD FOR VALIDATING THE FIRST-ORDER APPROACH: NECESSARY AND SUFFICIENT CONDITION AND ITS IMPLICATIONS
Rongzhu Ke, The Chinese University of Hong Kong
  
14:15 - 16:15 HERDING AND LEARNING (THY)
Chairperson: David McAdams, Duke University
Room Gran Melia F3
  INFORMATIONAL CASCADES IN FINANCIAL MARKETS WITH COSTLY INFORMATION
Arina Nikandrova, University of Cambridge

  
  DELAY AND INFORMATION AGGREGATION IN STOPPING GAMES WITH PRIVATE INFORMATION
Pauli Murto, Aalto University
Co-Author: Juuso V�lim�ki, Aalto University

  
  AGGREGATE UNCERTAINTY AND LEARNING IN A SEARCH MODEL
Gabor Virag, University of Rochester
Co-Author: Stephan Lauermann, University of Michigan

  
  PERFORMANCE AND TURNOVER IN A STOCHASTIC PARTNERSHIP
David McAdams, Duke University
  
14:15 - 16:15 MECHANISM DESIGN III (THY)
Chairperson: Bo Chen, Southern Methodist University
Room Gran Melia F5
  INFORMATIONAL SMALLNESS AND SCOPE FOR LIMITING INFORMATIONAL RENTS
Alia Gizatulina, Max Planck Institute, Bonn
Co-Author: Martin Hellwig, Max Planck Institute

  
  OPTIMAL CERTIFICATION DESIGN
Sergei Kovbasyuk, Toulouse School of Economics

  
  OPTIMAL R&D PROJECT SELECTION MECHANISMS
Sidartha Gordon, Universit� de Montr�al
Co-Author: Talia Bar, Cornell University

  
  OPTIMAL SELLING MECHANISMS WITH COUNTERVAILING POSITIVE EXTERNALITIES AND AN APPLICATION TO TRADABLE RETALIATION IN THE WTO
Bo Chen, Southern Methodist University
Co-Author: Tanapong Potipiti, Chulalongkorn University
  

14:15 - 16:15 EXPERIMENTS AND MARKET OUTCOMES II (EXP)
Chairperson: Youxin Hu, Southwestern University of Finance and Economics
Room Gran Melia B2
  A DYNAMIC GENERAL EQUILIBRIUM APPROACH TO ASSET PRICING EXPERIMENTS
John Duffy, University of Pittsburgh
Co-Author: Sean Crockett, Baruch College (CUNY)

  
  SPECULATIVE OVERPRICING IN ASSET MARKETS WITH INFORMATION FLOWS
Stephanie Wang, California Institute of Technology
Co-Author: Thomas Palfrey, California Institute of Technology

  
  INDIVIDUAL EXPECTATION, LIMITED RATIONALITY AND AGGREGATE OUTCOMES
Te Bao, University of Amsterdam
Co-Authors: Cars Hommes, CeNDEF, University of Amsterdam, Joep Sonnemans, CREED, University of Amsterdam and Jan Tuinstra, CeNDEF, University of Amsterdam

  
  BIDDING MORE AGGRESSIVELY OR FREE RIDING? THEORETICAL AND EXPERIMENTAL ANALYSIS OF AUCTIONS WITH NEGATIVE EXTERNALITIES
Youxin Hu, Southwestern University of Finance and Economics
Co-Authors: John Kagel, The Ohio State University and Lixin Ye, The Ohio State University
  
14:15 - 16:15 BIASES AND MISTAKES (EXP)
Chairperson: Mo Xiao, University of Arizona
Room Gran Melia F2
  CEO OVERCONFIDENCE AND INNOVATION
Alberto Galasso, University of Toronto
Co-Author: Timothy Simcoe, Boston University

  
  REFERENCE-DEPENDENT RISK PREFERENCES OF HIGHER ORDERS
Johannes Maier, Munich Graduate School of Economics, University of Munich
Co-Author: Maximilian R�ger, University of Augsburg

  
  MENTAL OVERLOAD, PRODUCTIVITY, AND DECISION-MAKING
Anna Breman, University of Arizona
Co-Authors: Manuela Angelucci, University of Arizona and Karina Cordova, University of Arizona

  
  WHO THINKS ABOUT THE COMPETITION? MANAGERIAL ABILITY AND STRATEGIC ENTRY IN US LOCAL TELEPHONE MARKETS
Mo Xiao, University of Arizona
Co-Author: Avi Goldfarb, University of Toronto
  

14:15 - 16:15 CREDIT MARKETS IV (FIN)
Chairperson: John Krainer, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco
Room 5A
  STRATEGIC ONLINE-BANKING ADOPTION
Ruben Hernandez, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
Co-Author: Gerard Llobet, CEMFI

  
  WHAT'S BANK REPUTATION WORTH? THE EFFECT OF FRAUD ON FINANCIAL CONTRACTS AND INVESTMENT
Daniel Paravisini, Columbia University GSB
Co-Author: Hannah Lin, IMF

  
  FINANCIAL INTEGRATION AND LIQUIDITY CRISES
Fabio Castiglionesi, Tilburg University
Co-Authors: Fabio Feriozzi, Tilburg University and Guido Lorenzoni, MIT

  
  MORTGAGE DEFAULT AND MORTGAGE VALUATION
John Krainer, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco
Co-Authors: Stephen LeRoy, University of California at Santa Barbara and Munpyung O, University of California at Santa Barbara
  
14:15 - 16:15 TERM STRUCTURE MODELS I (FIN)
Chairperson: Torben Rasmussen, Aarhus University
Room 5B
  AN ASSET PRICING APPROACH TO TESTING GENERAL TERM STRUCTURE MODELS INCLUDING HEATH-JARROW-MORTON SPECIFICATIONS AND AFFINE SUBCLASSES
Bent Jesper Christensen, University of Aarhus
Co-Author: Michel Van der Wel, Erasmus University Rotterdam

  
  DYNAMIC ASSET PRICING FOR QUADRATIC JUMP-DIFFUSION PROCESSES
Weiping Li, Oklahoma State University

  
  TERM STRUCTURE OF INTEREST RATES IN A REGIME SWITCHING DYNAMIC STOCHASTIC GENERAL EQUILIBRIUM MODEL
Srikanth Ramamurthy, Loyola University
Co-Authors: Siddhartha Chib, Washington University in St. Louis and Kyu Ho Kang, Washington University in St. Louis

  
  EXPLOITING TERM STRUCTURE DYNAMICS IN IMMUNIZATION STRATEGIES
Torben Rasmussen, Aarhus University
Co-Author: Bent Jesper Christensen, University of Aarhus and CREATES
  
14:15 - 16:15 ASSET PRICING IV (FIN)
Chairperson: Peter DeMarzo, Stanford University
Room 5C
  LIMITED ASSET MARKET PARTICIPATION AND THE VARIATION OF REAL RISK PREMIA
Francisco Rivadeneyra, Bank of Canada

  
  A THEORY OF TRADING ON THE FX SINGLE-DEALER PLATFORM
Luca Gelsomini, IESEG School of Management
Co-Author: Jonathan Cave, Department of Economics and CRETA, University of Warwick; RAND Europe

  
  ASSET RETURNS WITH EARNINGS MANAGEMENT
Sun Bo, Federal Reserve Board

  
  ENDOGENOUS INFORMATION FLOWS AND THE CLUSTERING OF ANNOUNCEMENTS
Peter DeMarzo, Stanford University
Co-Authors: Viral Acharya, NYU and Ilan Kremer, Stanford University
  

14:15 - 16:15 PRICING: THEORY I (IND)
Chairperson: Leonard J. Mirman, University of Virginia
Room Gran Melia B3
  AIRPORT CONGESTION PRICING AND PASSENGER TYPES
Achim I. Czerny, WHU - Otto Beisheim School of Management
Co-Author: Anming Zhang, University of British Columbia, Sauder School of Business

  
  THE MARKET FOR SURPRISES: SELLING SUBSTITUTE GOODS THROUGH LOTTERIES
Filippo Balestrieri, HP Labs
Co-Author: Joao Leao, ISCTE

  
  ADD-ON PRICING, CONSUMER MYOPIA AND REGULATORY INTERVENTION
Ulrich Schuewer, Goethe-University Frankfurt
Co-Author: Michael Kosfeld, Goethe-University Frankfurt

  
  THE SIGNALING ROLE OF PRICES: COURNOT
Leonard J. Mirman, University of Virginia
Co-Authors: Wassim Daher, Gulf University for Science and Technology, Kuwait and Marc Santugini, HEC Montreal
  
14:15 - 16:15 R&D AND INNOVATION: EMPIRICAL STUDIES (IND)
Chairperson: Pierre Mohnen, Maastricht University
Room Gran Melia B4
  INNOVATION POLICY REFORM
Tuomas Takalo, Bank of Finland and University of Jyv�skyl�
Co-Authors: Tanja Tanayama, HECER and ETLA and Otto Toivanen, HECER and CEPR

  
  COMPETITION, PRODUCT AND PROCESS INNOVATION: AN EMPIRICAL ANALYSIS
Carlos Daniel Santos, University of Alicante and Centre for Economic Performance

  
  MARKET STRUCTURE AND INNOVATION: A DYNAMIC ANALYSIS OF THE GLOBAL AUTOMOBILE INDUSTRY
Aamir Hashmi, National University of Singapore
Co-Author: Johannes Van Biesebroeck, K.U.Leuven

  
  ON THE LINK BETWEEN R&D, INNOVATION AND PRODUCTIVITY: PANEL EVIDENCE FOR DUTCH AND FRENCH MANUFACTURING
Pierre Mohnen, Maastricht University
Co-Authors: Jacques Mairesse, CREST, UNU-MERIT, NBER, Franz C. Palm, Maastricht University and Wladimir Raymond, Maastricht University
  

14:15 - 16:15 INTERNATIONAL MACROECONOMICS III (INT)
Chairperson: Charles Ka Yui Leung, City University of Hong Kong
Room 3A
  TRENDS IN INTERNATIONAL PRICES
Marios Zachariadis, University of Cyprus
Co-Author: Philippe Adrade, Banque de France

  
  DOMESTIC OR GLOBAL IMBALANCES? RISING INEQUALITY AND THE FALL IN THE US CURRENT ACCOUNT
Tobias Broer, IIES

  
  FOREIGN LENDERS IN EMERGING ECONOMIES
Minetti Raoul, Michigan State University
Co-Author: Matteo Iacoviello, Boston College

  
  REAL ESTATE AND THE EXTERNAL FINANCE OF BUSINESS INVESTMENT: A QUANTITATIVE DYNAMIC GENERAL EQUILIBRIUM ANALYSIS
Charles Ka Yui Leung, City University of Hong Kong
Co-Authors: Yi Jin, Monash University and Zhixiong Zeng, Monash University
  
14:15 - 16:15 INTERNATIONAL TRADE: FIRM-LEVEL EVIDENCE (INT)
Chairperson: Ferdinand Rauch, World Bank, University of Vienna, LSE
Room 3E
  CHINESE COMPETITION AND THE QUALITY OF FRENCH EXPORTS
Julien Martin, CREST-INSEE & Paris School of Economics
Co-Author: Isabelle Mejean, IMF, Ecole Polytechnique and CEPR

  
  QUALITY AND PRODUCTIVITY AS DETERMINANTS OF CHINESE FIRM EXPORT DECISIONS
Mark Roberts, Pennsylvania State University
Co-Authors: Xiaoyan Fan, Fudan University, Daniel Yi Xu, New York University and Shengxing Zhang, New York University

  
  THE DETERMINANTS OF VERTICAL INTEGRATION IN EXPORT PROCESSING: THEORY AND EVIDENCE FROM CHINA
Ana Fernandes, University of Sussex
Co-Author: Heiwai Tang, Tufts University

  
  TRADE AS ENGINE OF CREATIVE DESTRUCTION - THE MEXICAN EXPERIENCE WITH CHINESE COMPETITION
Ferdinand Rauch, World Bank, University of Vienna, LSE
Co-Authors: Leonardo Iacovone, World Bank and L. Alan Winters, University of Sussex
  
14:15 - 16:15 AGGLOMERATION (INT)
Chairperson: Fr�d�ric Robert-Nicoud, University of Geneva
Room 3G
  PLANTS AND PRODUCTIVITY IN REGIONAL AGGLOMERATION
Wen-Tai Hsu, Chinese University of Hong Kong
Co-Authors: Thomas Holmes, University of Minnesota and Sanghoon Lee, Sauder School of Business, the University of British Columbia

  
  LOCATIONAL SIGNALING AND AGGLOMERATION
Chia-Ming Yu, Washington University in St. Louis
Co-Author: Marcus Berliant, Washington University in St. Louis

  
  THE EFFECT OF CAPITAL FLOW ON THE AGGLOMERATION EVOLUTION OF FOOTLOOSE ENTREPRENEURS
Shin-Kun Peng, Institute of Economics, Academia Sinica
Co-Author: Ching-Mu Chen, Graduate Institute of Geography, National Taiwan University

  
  PRODUCTIVE CITIES: SORTING, SELECTION AND AGGLOMERATION
Fr�d�ric Robert-Nicoud, University of Geneva
Co-Authors: Kristian Behrens, UQAM and Gilles Duranton, University of Toronto
  

14:15 - 16:15 MARRIAGE AND THE FAMILY (LAB)
Chairperson: Maristella Botticini, Bocconi University
Room Yellow River Hall
  DYNAMIC OPTIMIZATION IN MODELS FOR PANEL DATA: A COHORT PANEL DATA MODEL OF THE EFFECTS OF DIVORCE LAWS ON DIVORCE RATES
Marjorie McElroy, Duke University
Co-Authors: Tongyai Iyavarakul, Office of the National Economic and Social Development Board,Office of the Prime Minister, Bangkok, Thailand and Kalina Staub, Duke University

  
  PARENTAL CHOICES AND THE LABOR MARKET OUTCOME OF CHILDREN
Ari Kang, Carnegie Mellon University

  
  THE IMPACT OF SCHOOLING ON THE MARRIAGE AND FERTILITY OF TEENAGE WOMEN: EVIDENCE FROM A CHANGE IN COMPULSORY SCHOOLING LAW IN TURKEY
Murat Kirdar, Middle East Technical University
Co-Authors: Meltem Dayioglu, Middle East Technical University and Ismet Koc, Hacettepe University

  
  ARE THERE INCREASING RETURNS TO SCALE IN MARRIAGE MARKETS?
Maristella Botticini, Bocconi University
Co-Author: Aloysius Siow, University of Toronto
  
14:15 - 16:15 CONSUMER BEHAVIOUR (LAB)
Chairperson: Ernesto Villanueva, Bank of Spain
Room 5I
  DURABLE PURCHASES OVER THE LIFE CYCLE
Melanie Luhrmann, Royal Holloway, University of London
Co-Authors: Martin Browning, Oxford University and Thomas Crossley, University of Cambridge

  
  FROM INCOME TO CONSUMPTION:MEASURING HOUSEHOLDS PARTIAL INSURANCE
Jose Maria Casado, Banco de Espa�a

  
  INCOME SHOCKS AND INVESTMENTS IN HUMAN CAPITAL
Ginja Rita, University College London

  
  THE RESPONSE OF HOUSEHOLD WEALTH TO THE RISK OF LOSING THE JOB: EVIDENCE FROM DIFFERENCES IN FIRING COSTS
Ernesto Villanueva, Bank of Spain
Co-Author: Cristina Barcelo, Bank of Spain
  
14:15 - 16:15 ECONOMICS OF EDUCATION (LAB)
Chairperson: Yinghua He, Columbia University
Room 5J
  TIMING AND INCENTIVES: IMPACTS OF STUDENT AID ON ACADEMIC ACHIEVEMENT
Juanna Joensen, Stockholm School of Economics

  
  LEARNING YOUR OWN ABILITY
Carlos Madeira, Central Bank of Chile

  
  INCOME TAXES, SUBSIDIES TO EDUCATION, AND INVESTMENTS IN HUMAN CAPITAL
Tito Pietra, DSE, University of Bologna
Co-Authors: Concetta Mendolicchio, IAB and Dimitri Paolini, CRENoS and DEIR, University of Sassari

  
  GAMING THE SCHOOL CHOICE MECHANISM
Yinghua He, Columbia University
  

14:15 - 16:15 TAXATION AND MACROECONOMICS II (MAX)
Chairperson: Hubert Kempf, Banque de France and Paris School of Economics
Room 3B
  ON THE TAXATION OF DIVIDENDS AND CAPITAL GAINS WHEN MARKETS ARE INCOMPLETE
Eva Carceles, Stony Brook University
Co-Authors: Alexios Anagnostopoulos, Stony Brook University and Danmo Lin, University of Maryland

  
  TAXING CAPITAL IS NOT A BAD IDEA INDEED: THE ROLE OF HUMAN CAPITAL AND LABOR-MARKET FRICTIONS
Hung-Ju Chen, National Taiwan University

  
  UNEMPLOYMENT INSURANCE, HUMAN CAPITAL AND FINANCIAL MARKETS
Antonio Mele, Nuffield College and University of Oxford

  
  INSULATION IMPOSSIBLE: FISCAL SPILLOVERS IN A MONETARY UNION
Hubert Kempf, Banque de France and Paris School of Economics
Co-Authors: Russell Cooper, European University Institute and Dan Peled, University of Haifa
  
14:15 - 16:15 MONETARY POLICY III (MAX)
Chairperson: Marc Giannoni, Columbia University
Room 3C
  COMPUTING OPTIMAL SUSTAINABLE MONETARY POLICY
Takeki Sunakawa, The Ohio State University and Bank of Japan

  
  MONETARY POLICY AND FINANCIAL STABILITY
Vu Dong, Georgetown University

  
  BANKING COMPETITION, COLLATERAL CONSTRAINTS AND OPTIMAL MONETARY POLICY
Javier Andr�s, Universidad de Valencia
Co-Authors: �scar Arce, CNMV and Carlos Thomas, Banco de Espa�a

  
  OPTIMAL TARGET CRITERIA FOR STABILIZATION POLICY
Marc Giannoni, Columbia University
Co-Author: Michael Woodford, Columbia University
  
14:15 - 16:15 CREDIT MARKETS I (MAX)
Chairperson: Sophie Osotimehin, CREST-INSEE and Paris School of Economics
Room 3I
  INTEREST RATES AND DEFAULT IN UNSECURED LOAN MARKETS
Jose Angelo Divino, Catholic University of Brasilia
Co-Authors: Edna Lima, Catholic University of Brasilia and Jaime Orrillo, Catholic University of Brasilia

  
  THE METHOD OF ENDOGENOUS GRIDPOINTS WITH OCCASIONALLY BINDING CONSTRAINTS AMONG ENDOGENOUS VARIABLES
Winfried Koeniger, Queen Mary, University of London
Co-Author: Thomas Hintermaier, Institute fo Advanced Studies Vienna (IHS) and University of Mannheim

  
  A MODEL OF TIERED SETTLEMENT NETWORKS
James Chapman, Bank of Canada
Co-Authors: Jonathan Chiu, Bank of Canada and Miguel Molico, Bank of Canada

  
  ALL YOU NEED IS LOAN. THE ROLE OF CREDIT CONSTRAINTS ON THE CLEANSING EFFECT OF RECESSIONS
Sophie Osotimehin, CREST-INSEE and Paris School of Economics
Co-Author: Francesco Pappad�, Paris School of Economics
  
14:15 - 16:15 ECONOMIC GROWTH: EXPLAINING CROSS-COUNTRY INCOME DIFFERENCES (MAX)
Chairperson: Karlygash Kuralbayeva, University of Oxford
Room 3J
  WHY ARE DEVELOPING COUNTRIES SO SLOW IN ADOPTING NEW TECHNOLOGIES?
Raphael Bergoeing, Universidad de Chile
Co-Authors: Norman Loayza, The World Bank and Facundo Piguillem, Einaudi Institute for Economics and Finance

  
  AN ACCOUNTING METHOD FOR ECONOMIC GROWTH
Hongchun Zhao, University of Southern California

  
  LIGHTNING, IT DIFFUSION AND ECONOMIC GROWTH ACROSS US STATES
Carl-Johan Dalgaard, University of Copenhagen

  
  DE-SPECIALIZATION, DUTCH DISEASE AND SECTORAL PRODUCTIVITY DIFFERENCES
Karlygash Kuralbayeva, University of Oxford
Co-Author: Radoslaw Stefanski, University of Oxford
  

14:15 - 16:15 PUBLIC ECONOMICS: ENVIRONMENTAL ECONOMICS (PUB)
Chairperson: Zhe Li, Shanghai University of Finance and Economics
Room 3H
  THE ENVIRONMENTAL EFFECT OF GREEN TAXATION: THE CASE OF THE FRENCH "BONUS/MALUS"
Pauline Givord, CREST-INSEE
Co-Authors: Xavier Boutin, CREST-INSEE and Xavier d'Haultfoeuille, CREST-INSEE

  
  GROWTH AND CONVERGENCE IN A MODEL WITH RENEWABLE AND NON-RENEWABLE RESOURCES: EXISTENCE OF SOLUTIONS, TRANSITION, AND EMPIRICAL EVIDENCE
Phu Nguyen-Van, BETA-CNRS, Universite de Strasbourg
Co-Author: Manh Hung Nguyen, LERNA, INRA and Toulouse School of Economics

  
  TRADE AND ENVIRONMENTAL IMPACTS ON CLUSTERED MULTILATERAL ENVIRONMENTAL AGREEMENTS
Christoph Jessberger, Ifo Institute for Economic Research
Co-Authors: Peter Egger, ETH Zurich and Mario Larch, Ifo Institute for Economic Research

  
  PRODUCTIVITY DISPERSION AND ENVIRONMENTAL POLICIES
Zhe Li, Shanghai University of Finance and Economics
Co-Author: Shouyong Shi, University of Toronto
  

14:15 - 16:15 HEALTH AND DEVELOPMENT (DEV)
Chairperson: Lin Liu, University of Rochester
Room Century Hall
  LEAD EXPOSURE AND ITS EFFECTS ON ACADEMIC ACHIEVEMENT: EVIDENCE FROM AN INDUSTRIAL NEGLIGENCE
Sergio Urzua, Northwestern University
Co-Authors: Tomas Rau, University of Chile and Loreto Reyes, University of Chile

  
  HOW DO HIGH-COST PATIENTS FARE UNDER THE GLOBAL BUDGET POLICY? EVIDENCE FROM CHINA
Wei Wang, Stanford University

  
  SPILLOVER EFFECTS IN HEALTHCARE PROGRAMS: EVIDENCE ON SOCIAL NORMS AND INFORMATION SHARING
Ciro Avitabile, CSEF, University of Naples "Federico II"

  
  INFECTIOUS DISEASES AND ECONOMIC GROWTH
Lin Liu, University of Rochester
Co-Authors: Aditya Goenka, National University of Singapore and Manh Hung Nguyen, LERNA, INRA and Toulouse School of Economics
  
14:15 - 16:15 HOUSEHOLD BEHAVIOR: LABOR (DEV)
Chairperson: Abla Safir, World Bank
Room 3D
  OVEREMPLOYMENT, UNDEREMPLOYMENT AND THE OPPORTUNITY COST OF TIME: BUILDING POLICY AGENDAS FOR DEVELOPING ECONOMIES
Thomas Barr�, CES - University of Paris Pantheon Sorbonne

  
  REFERRAL AND JOB PERFORMANCE: EVIDENCE FROM THE GHANA COLONIAL ARMY
Alexander Moradi, University of Sussex
Co-Author: Marcel Fafchamps, Oxford University

  
  EFFICIENCY OF MALE AND FEMALE ON-FARM LABOUR SUPPLY: EVIDENCE FROM UGANDA
Jennifer Golan, University of Manchester
Co-Authors: Martyn Andrews, University of Manchester and Jann Lay, University of Goettingen and GIGA

 
  COPING WITH AGGREGATE SHOCKS: TEMPORARY MIGRATION AND OTHER LABOR RESPONSES TO CLIMATIC SHOCKS IN RURAL INDIA
Abla Safir, World Bank
Co-Author: Reena Badiani, Yale University
  

14:15 - 16:15 TIME SERIES (ECO)
Chairperson: Jiti Gao, The University of Adelaide
Room Yangtze Hall
  GAUSSIAN INFERENCE IN GENERAL AR(1) MODELS BASED ON LONG DIFFERENCE
Biing-Shen Kuo, National Chengchi University
Co-Author: Jhih-Gang Chen, National Chengchi University

  
  A UNIFIED APPROACH TO VALIDATING UNIVARIATE AND MULTIVARIATE CONDITIONAL DISTRIBUTION MODELS IN TIME SERIES
Bin Chen, University of Rochester
Co-Author: Yongmiao Hong, Cornell University

  
  DENSITY FORECAST EVALUATION USING DATA-DRIVEN SMOOTH TEST
Yupeng Zhang, The Wang Yanan Institute for Studies in Economics, Xiamen University
Co-Author: Park Sung Yong, The Wang Yanan Institute for Studies in Economics, Xiamen University

  
  SEMIPARAMETRIC ESTIMATION IN TIME SERIES SIMULTANEOUS EQUATIONS MODELS
Jiti Gao, The University of Adelaide
Co-Author: Peter Phillips, Yale University
  
14:15 - 16:15 STRUCTURAL MODELS (ECO)
Chairperson: Aureo Paula, University of Pennsylvania
Room 5D
  MATCHING WITH TRADE-OFFS: REVEALED PREFERENCES OVER COMPETING CHARACTERISTICS
Alfred Galichon, Ecole polytechnique
Co-Author: Bernard Salanie, Columbia University

  
  IDENTIFICATION OF STOCHASTIC SEQUENTIAL BARGAINING
Xun Tang, University of Pennsylvania
Co-Author: Antonio Merlo, University of Pennsylvania

  
  CHOICE PROBABILITY GENERATING FUNCTIONS
Mogens Fosgerau, DTU, Denmark
Co-Authors: Michel Bierlaire, EPFL and Daniel McFadden, University of California, Berkeley

  
  INFERENCE OF SIGNS OF INTERACTION E FFECTS IN SIMULTANEOUS GAMES WITH INCOMPLETE INFORMATION
Aureo Paula, University of Pennsylvania
Co-Author: Xun Tang, University of Pennsylvania
  
14:15 - 16:15 FINANCIAL ECONOMETRICS I (ECO)
Chairperson: Paul Kattuman, Judge Business School, University of Cambridge
Room 5E
  MODELLING MULTIVARIATE JOINT TAILS AND APPLICATION IN EXTREME RISK SPILLOVERS BETWEEN BANKING SYSTEMS
Xiao Qin, Shanghai Jiao Tong University
Co-Authors: Ruoen Ren, Beihang University and Richard Smith, University of North Carolina, Chapel Hill

  
  ASYMMETRIC STOCHASTIC CONDITIONAL DURATION MODEL -- A MIXTURE-OF-NORMAL APPROACH
Dinghai Xu, University of Waterloo
Co-Authors: John Knight, University of Western Ontario and Tony Wirjanto, University of Waterloo

  
  EFFICIENT ESTIMATION OF LEARNING MODELS
Veronika Czellar, HEC Paris
Co-Author: Laurent Calvet, HEC Paris

  
  EMERGING MARKETS AND HEAVY TAILS
Paul Kattuman, Judge Business School, University of Cambridge
Co-Authors: Rustam Ibragimov, Harvard University and Marat Ibragimov, Tashkent State University of Economics
  
14:15 - 16:15 HYPOTHESIS TESTS II (ECO)
Chairperson: Pascale Valery, HEC Montreal
Room 5F
  FINITE SAMPLE NONPARAMETRIC TESTS FOR LINEAR REGRESSIONS
Karl Schlag, Universitat Pompeu Fabra
Co-Author: Olivier Gossner, Paris School of Economics

  
  A HYPOTHESIS TEST FOR MAXIMUM SCORE ESTIMATION
Walter Mayer, University of Mississippi
Co-Author: Chen Wu, Black Hills State University

  
  ROBUST INFERENCE UNDER MOMENT RESTRICTIONS
Taisuke Otsu, Yale University
Co-Author: Yuichi Kitamura, Yale University

  
  WALD-TYPE TESTS WHEN RANK CONDITIONS FAIL: A SMOOTH REGULARIZATION APPROACH
Pascale Valery, HEC Montreal
Co-Author: Jean-Marie Dufour, McGill University
  
14:15 - 16:15 PANEL QUANTILE MODELS (ECO)
Chairperson: Geert Dhaene, KULeuven
Room 5H
  SET IDENTIFICATION VIA QUANTILE RESTRICTIONS IN SHORT PANELS
Adam Rosen, University College London

  
  ASYMPTOTICS AND BOOTSTRAP INFERENCE FOR PANEL QUANTILE REGRESSION MODELS WITH FIXED EFFECTS
Kengo Kato, Hiroshima University
Co-Authors: Antonio Galvao, University of Wisconsin-Milwaukee and Gabriel Montes-Rojas, City University London

  
  PENALIZED QUANTILE REGRESSION FOR DYNAMIC PANEL DATA
Antonio Galvao, University of Wisconsin-Milwaukee
Co-Author: Gabriel Montes-Rojas, City University London

  
  MEDIAN-BASED ESTIMATION OF DYNAMIC PANEL MODELS WITH FIXED EFFECTS
Geert Dhaene, KULeuven
Co-Author: Yu Zhu, University of Wisconsin
  
14:15 - 16:15 TREATMENT EFFECTS II (ECO)
Chairperson: Frank Windmeijer, University of Bristol
Room Pearl Hall
  DETECTING TREATMENT MISALLOCATION
Debopam Bhattacharya, University of Oxford

  
  TESTING THE CORRELATED RANDOM COEFFICIENT MODEL
Daniel Schmierer, University of Chicago
Co-Authors: James Heckman, University of Chicago and Sergio Urzua, Northwestern University

  
  A FRAMEWORK FOR THE ANALYSIS OF TIME-VARYING TREATMENT EFFECTS: HOW THE TIMING OF GRADE RETENTION AFFECTS OUTCOMES
Salvador Navarro, University of Wisconsin

  
  GENETIC MARKERS AS INSTRUMENTAL VARIABLES: AN APPLICATION TO CHILD FAT MASS AND ACADEMIC ACHIEVEMENT
Frank Windmeijer, University of Bristol
Co-Author: Carol Propper, Imperial College, CMPO University of Bristol, CEPR
  
16:45 - 18:15 PLENARY SESSION

16:45 - 18:15 WALRAS-BOWLEY LECTURE
Chairperson: Richard Blundell, University College London
Room Grand Ballroom
  THE EMPIRICAL IMPLICATIONS OF SELF-ENFORCEABLE CONTRACTS: MEASURING STICKS AND CARROTS IN RURAL M�XICO
Orazio Attanasio, UCL
  

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