ESWC 2005: Congress Programme

ESWC 2005: Congress Programme

The Congress Programme is subject to last minute changes.

This version of the Programme was viewed at 7/8/2005 9:15:50 AM

SUNDAY 21 AUGUST 2005

11:15 - 12:45

CONTRIBUTED SESSIONS
Macroeconomics

11:15 - 12:45

MONETARY POLICY I (MAC)
Chairperson: Fernando Perez de Gracia, Universidad de Navarra

Room Z3 - Ricardo

	THE TIMING OF MONETARY POLICY SHOCKS Silvana Tenreyro, London School of Economics Co-Author: Giovanni Olivei, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston
	MARKET CONCENTRATION, MACROECONOMIC UNCERTAINTY AND MONETARY POLICY Juan de Dios Tena Horrillo, Universita’ degli Studi di Sassari and Universidad de Concepcion Co-Author: Francesco Giovannoni, University of Bristol
	MONEY SHOCKS AND THE MACROECONOMY: 1970-2000 Fernando Perez de Gracia, Universidad de Navarra Co-Authors: Javier Gomez Biscarri, Universidad de Navarra and Antonio Moreno Ibañez, Universidad de Navarra

11:15 - 12:45

ROBUST CONTROL (MAC)
Chairperson: Thomas Sargent, New York University

Room Z3 - Ingold Auditorium

	ROBUST POLICY AND NON-ATTENUATION Bill Dupor, Economics Dept., Ohio State University Co-Author: Wen-Fang Liu, DeLoitte
	RECURSIVE ROBUST DECISIONS WITH HIDDEN STATES Thomas Sargent, New York University Co-Author: Lars Hansen, University of Chicago

11:15 - 12:45

FISCAL POLICY (MAC)
Chairperson: Holger Strulik, University of Copenhagen

Room Z3 - Jevons

	THE STABILIZING ROLE OF GOVERNMENT SIZE Rafael Domenech, University of Valencia Co-Authors: Javier Andres, Universidad de Valencia and Antonio Fatas, INSEAD
	DEBT NON-NEUTRALITY, POLICY INTERACTIONS, AND MACROECONOMIC STABILITY Ludger Linnemann, University of Cologne Co-Author: Andreas Schabert, University of Amsterdam
	THE CREDIT CHANNEL OF CAPITAL TAX POLICY Holger Strulik, University of Copenhagen

11:15 - 12:45

CONTRIBUTED SESSIONS
Finance

11:15 - 12:45

CORPORATE GOVERNANCE (FIN)
Chairperson: Walter Novaes, PUC-Rio

Room Z2 - Engineering LT1

	MARKET DISTORSIONS AND CORPORATE GOVERNANCE David Kelsey, University of Exeter Co-Author: Frank Milne, Queens University
	EARNINGS MANIPULATION AND RISKY INVESTMENT Hanqing Wang, Victoria University of Wellington
	SHARING OF CONTROL VERSUS MONITORING AS CORPORATE GOVERNANCE MECHANISMS Walter Novaes, PUC-Rio Co-Author: Armando Gomes, Wharton School, University of Pennsylvania

11:15 - 12:45

ASSET PRICING (FIN)
Chairperson: Kris Jacobs, McGill University

Room Z2 - Engineering LT2

	CONDITIONING INFORMATION AND VARIANCE BOUNDS ON PRICING KERNEL WITH HIGHER-ORDER MOMENTS: THEORY AND EVIDENCE Fousseni Chabi-Yo, Financial Markets Department, Bank of Canada
	INFORMATION ACQUISITION AND PORTFOLIO UNDERDIVERSIFICATION Stijn Van Nieuwerburgh, NYU Stern Co-Author: Laura Veldkamp, NYU Stern
	A FRAMEWORK FOR CONTINGENT CLAIM VALUATION IN DISCRETE TIME Kris Jacobs, McGill University Co-Authors: Peter Christoffersen, McGill University and Redouane Elkamhi, McGill University

11:15 - 12:45

CONTRIBUTED SESSIONS
Public/Political Economics

11:15 - 12:45

POLITICAL PARTIES AND POLICY CHOICE (PPE)
Chairperson: Nandini Gupta, Kelley School of Business, Indiana University

Room Z3 - Archeology

	WHAT DOES IT TAKE THE MEDIAN VOTER TO GO FOR NIXON Christian Riis, Norwegian School of Management Co-Authors: Dag Morten Dalen, and Espen Moen,
	XENOPHOBIA AND DISTRIBUTION IN FRANCE: A POLITICO-ECONOMIC ANALYSIS Karine Van der Straeten, CNRS, Ecole polytechnique Paris Co-Author: John E. Roemer, Yale University
	THE DECISION TO PRIVATIZE: THE ROLE OF ELECTORAL COMPETITION, POLITICAL PATRONAGE, AND INTEREST GROUPS Nandini Gupta, Kelley School of Business, Indiana University

11:15 - 12:45

CLUB FORMATION (PPE)
Chairperson: Myrna Wooders, Vanderbilt University

Room Z3 - Gordon House

	COMPETITIVE EQUILIBRIUM IN TIEBOUT ECONOMIES WITH UNBOUNDED CLUB SIZES Nizar Allouch, Queen Mary, department of economics Co-Authors: John P. Conley , University of Vanderbilt and Myrna Wooders, Vanderbilt University
	INEQUALITY OF OUTCOMES IN ECONOMIES WITH CLUBS Myrna Wooders, Vanderbilt University

11:15 - 12:45

CONTRIBUTED SESSIONS
Development Economics

11:15 - 12:45

BORROWING CONSTRAINTS AND DEVELOPMENT (DEV)
Chairperson: Gabriel Madeira, University of Chicago

Room Z4 - Harrie Massey

	PENSIONS, POVERTY AND HOUSEHOLD INVESTMENTS IN BOLIVIA Sebastian Martinez, UC Berkeley
	MODELING FIRM DYNAMICS TO IDENTIFY THE COST OF FINANCING CONSTRAINTS IN GHANAIAN MANUFACTURING Schündeln Matthias, Harvard University
	EFFECTS OF A FINANCIAL CRISIS ON OCCUPATIONAL CHOICE: AN EMPIRICAL EVALUATION Gabriel Madeira, University of Chicago

11:15 - 12:45

CONTRIBUTED SESSIONS
Applied and Empirical Microeconomics

11:15 - 12:45

PENSIONS (AEM)
Chairperson: Daniel van Vuuren, CPB / Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam

Room Z2 - Hill

	CHARACTERISTICS OF AND DETERMINANTS OF THE DENSITY OF CONTRIBUTIONS IN A PRIVATE SOCIAL SECURITY SYSTEM David Bravo, Dept.of Economics, Universidad de Chile Co-Author: Alberto Arenas-De-Mesa, Budget Office, Ministry of Finance, Chile
	EARLY RETIREMENT BEHAVIOUR IN THE NETHERLANDS: EVIDENCE FROM A POLICY REFORM Daniel van Vuuren, CPB / Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam Co-Authors: Rob Euwals, CPB / IZA / CEPR and Ronald Wolthoff, Tinbergen Institute / Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam
	AN EVALUATION OF THE LIFECYCLE EFFECTS OF MINIMUM PENSIONS ON RETIREMENT BEHAVIOR Sergi Jimenez-Martin, Universitat Pompeu Fabra Co-Author: Alfonso Sanchez-Martin, Imperial College and CENTRA

11:15 - 12:45

EARLY CHILDHOOD INTERVENTIONS (AEM)
Chairperson: Marcos Vera-Hernandez, University Carlos III Madrid & IFS

Room Z2 - Young

	INVESTING IN HEALTH: THE LONG-TERM IMPACT OF HEAD START David Frisvold, Vanderbilt University Co-Authors: Kathryn Anderson, Vanderbilt University and James Foster, Vanderbilt University
	THE IMPACT OF EXPERIMENTAL NUTRITIONAL INTERVENTIONS ON EDUCATION INTO ADULTHOOD IN RURAL GUATEMALA John Hoddinott, IFPRI Co-Authors: Jere Behrman, University of Pennsylvania, John Maluccio, International Food Policy Research Institute, Reynaldo Martorell, Emory University, Agnes Quisumbing, International Food Policy Research Institute and Aryeh Stein, Emory University
	MEDIUM- AND LONG RUN EFFECTS OF NUTRITION AND CHILD CARE: EVALUATION OF A COMMUNITY NURSERY PROGRAMME IN RURAL COLOMBIA Marcos Vera-Hernandez, University Carlos III Madrid & IFS Co-Author: Orazio Attanasio, UCL

11:15 - 12:45

CONTRIBUTED SESSIONS
Labor Economics

11:15 - 12:45

ACTIVE LABOUR MARKET PROGRAM EVALUATION (LAB)
Chairperson: Gerard van den Berg, Free University Amsterdam

Room Z2 - Darwin

	LONG-RUN EFFECTS OF PUBLIC SECTOR SPONSORED TRAINING IN WEST GERMANY Conny Wunsch, Swiss Institute for International Economics and Applied Economic Research, University of St.Gallen Co-Authors: Michael Lechner, Swiss Institute for International Economics and Applied Economic Research, University of St.Gallen and Ruth Miquel, Swiss Institute for International Economics and Applied Economic Research, University of St.Gallen
	ESTIMATING THE SELECTION BIAS OF THE REGRESSION DISCONTINUITY DESIGN USING A TIE BREAKING EXPERIMENT Jose Galdo, Syracuse University Co-Authors: Dan Black, Department of Economics and Center for Policy Research, Syracuse University and Jeffrey Smith, Department of Economics, University of Maryland
	AN ECONOMIC ANALYSIS OF EXCLUSION RESTRICTIONS FOR INSTRUMENTAL VARIABLE ESTIMATION Gerard van den Berg, Free University Amsterdam

11:15 - 12:45

DYNAMICS OF LABOUR SUPPLY AND HOURS (LAB)
Chairperson: Peter Dolton, University of Newcastle and LSE

Room Z2 - Biochemestry

	A DYNAMIC DISCRETE CHOICE MODEL OF LABOR SUPPLY Peter Haan, DIW Berlin
	THE OTHER MARGIN: DO MINIMUM WAGES CAUSE WORKING HOURS ADJUSTMENTS FOR LOW-WAGE WORKERS? Joanna Swaffield, Department of Economics, University of York Co-Author: Mark Stewart, Department of Economics, University of Warwick
	THE RIDDLE OF THE SANDS? INTERTEMPORAL SUBSTITUTION OF LABOUR FOR ARCHAEOLOGICAL WORKERS IN NORTHERN SYRIA IN 1938. Peter Dolton, University of Newcastle and LSE Co-Author: Tim Barmby, University of Aberdeen

11:15 - 12:45

MIGRATION AND IMMIGRATION (LAB)
Chairperson: James Walker, University of Wisconsin-Madison

Room Z2 - Embriology

	IS IMMIGRATION GOOD OR BAD FOR THE ECONOMY? ANALYSIS OF ATTITUDINAL RESPONSES Christian Dustmann, University College London
	RETURN MIGRATION OF LOW- AND HIGH-SKILLED IMMIGRANTS FROM GERMANY Carsten Pohl, ifo Institute for Economic Research
	THE EFFECT OF EXPECTED INCOME ON INDIVIDUAL MIGRATION DECISIONS James Walker, University of Wisconsin-Madison Co-Author: John Kennan, University of Wisconsin-Madison

11:15 - 12:45

CONTRIBUTED SESSIONS
International Economics

11:15 - 12:45

TRADE AND PRODUCTIVITY (INT)
Chairperson: Norman Loayza, The World Bank

Room Z3 - Ingold LT

	PRODUCTIVITY IMPROVEMENTS AND FALLING TRADE COSTS: BOON OR BANE? Svetlana Demidova, Penn State University
	INVESTMENT-SPECIFIC AND MULTIFACTOR PRODUCTIVITY IN MULTI-SECTOR OPEN ECONOMIES: DATA AND ANALYSIS luca guerrieri, federal reserve board Co-Authors: Dale Henderson, Federal Reserve Board and Jinill Kim, Federal Reserve Board
	EXTERNAL CONDITIONS AND GROWTH PERFORMANCE Norman Loayza, The World Bank Co-Authors: Cesar Calderon, Central Bank of Chile and Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel, Central Bank of Chile

11:15 - 12:45

CONTRIBUTED SESSIONS
Econometrics

11:15 - 12:45

FINANCIAL ECONOMETRICS II (ECO)
Chairperson: Norman Swanson, Rutgers University

Room Z4 - B33

	TESTS OF RISK PREMIA IN LINEAR FACTOR MODELS Frank Kleibergen, Dept. of Economics, Brown University
	TESTING PORTFOLIO EFFICIENCY WITH AN UNOBSERVABLE ZERO-BETA RATE AND POSSIBLY NON-GAUSSIAN DISTRIBUTIONS: A FINITE-SAMPLE IDENTIFICATION-ROBUST APPROACH Lynda Khalaf, GREEN, Université laval Co-Authors: Marie-Claude. BEAULIEU, Université Laval and DUFOUR JEAN MARIE,
	SIMULATION BASED SPECIFICATION TESTS FOR DIFFUSION PROCESSES Norman Swanson, Rutgers University Co-Authors: Geetesh Bhardwaj, Rutgers University and Valentina Corradi, University of London, Queen Mary

11:15 - 12:45

AUCTIONS: IDENTIFICATION AND ESTIMATION (ECO)
Chairperson: Tong Li, Indiana University

Room Z4 - B34

	COMPARISON OF HYBRID FORMATS FOR FRENCH TREASURY AUCTIONS Erwann Sbai, University of Auckland Co-Author: Olivier Armantier, University of Montreal
	NONPARAMETRIC ESTIMATION OF LARGE AUCTIONS WITH RISK AVERSE BIDDERS Xiaodong Liu, Department of Economics, the Ohio State University
	PROCUREMENT AUCTIONS WITH ENTRY AND UNCERTAIN NUMBER OF ACTUAL BIDDERS: THEORY, STRUCTURAL INFERENCE AND AN APPLICATION Tong Li, Indiana University Co-Author: Xiaoyong Zheng,

11:15 - 12:45

BOUNDS (ECO)
Chairperson: Francesca Molinari, Cornell University

Room Z4 - B35

	INFERENCE ON IDENTIFIED PARAMETER SETS Han Hong, Duke University Co-Authors: Victor Chernozhukov, MIT and Elie Tamer, Northwestern University
	PARTIAL IDENTIFICATION OF POVERTY MEASURES WITH CONTAMINATED AND CORRUPTED DATA Juan Carlos Chavez-Martin del Campo, Cornell University
	PARTIAL IDENTIFICATION OF PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTIONS WITH MISCLASSIFIED DATA Francesca Molinari, Cornell University

11:15 - 12:45

NONPARAMETRIC ESTIMATION I (ECO)
Chairperson: Adonis Yatchew, University of Toronto

Room Z4 - B36

	AN ANALYSIS OF NONPARAMETRIC REGRESSION ESTIMATION UNDER CONSTRAINTS Vanhems Anne, Toulouse Business School Co-Author: Florens Jean-Pierre, University of Toulouse 1
	MULTIVARIATE WAVELET-BASED SHAPE PRESERVING ESTIMATION FOR DEPENDENT OBSERVATIONS Antonio Cosma, University of Lugano Co-Authors: Olivier Scaillet, HEC Geneve and FAME and Rainer von Sachs, Institut de statistique, Université Catholique de Louvain
	NONPARAMETRIC ESTIMATION WHEN DATA ON DERIVATIVES ARE AVAILABLE Adonis Yatchew, University of Toronto Co-Author: Peter Hall, Center for Mathematics and its Applications

11:15 - 12:45

CONTRIBUTED SESSIONS
Economic Theory

11:15 - 12:45

CAREER CONCERNS (THY)
Chairperson: Yasunari Tamada, Keio University

Room Z1 - Mendell 2

	CAREER CONCERNS AND THE ALLOCATION OF AUTHORITY Ravi Singh, Harvard Business School Co-Author: Ales Filipi,
	CAREER CONCERNS AND COMPETITIVE PRESSURE Fabio Feriozzi, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid
	THE MANAGERIAL CAREER CONCERN AND COMPETITIONS Yasunari Tamada, Keio University Co-Author: Taeko Endo, Tokyo Keizai University

11:15 - 12:45

BOUNDED RATIONALITY I (THY)
Chairperson: Ran Spiegler, Tel Aviv University

Room Z1- Cruciform LT1

	LIMITED COMPUTATIONAL RESOURCES FAVOR RATIONALITY Yuval Salant, Stanford University
	UNAWARENESS Jing Li, University of Pennsylvania
	COMPETITION OVER AGENTS WITH BOUNDEDLY RATIONAL EXPECTATIONS Ran Spiegler, Tel Aviv University

11:15 - 12:45

GENERAL EQULIBRIUM II (THY)
Chairperson: Chiaki Hara, Institue of Economic Research, Kyoto University

Room Z1 - Jenner 2

	SLUTSKY ASYMMETRY AND NET REAL INCOME GROWTH WITH DISCRETE DATA Michael Jerison, SUNY Albany
	TRADE WITH HETEROGENEOUS MULTIPLE PRIORS Atsushi Kajii, Kyoto University Co-Author: Takashi Ui, Faculty of Economics , Yokohama National University
	EFFICIENT RISK-SHARING RULES WITH HETEROGENEOUS RISK ATTITUDES AND BACKGROUND RISKS Chiaki Hara, Institue of Economic Research, Kyoto University Co-Author: Christoph Kuzmics, MEDS, Kellogg School of Management, Northwestern University

11:15 - 12:45

GAMES (THY)
Chairperson: Vives Xavier, Insead

Room Z1 - Jenner 1

	EXISTENCE, COMPARATIVE STATICS, AND STABILITY IN GAMES WITH STRATEGIC SUBSTITUTES Martin Kaae Jensen, University of Birmingham
	MONOTONE EQUILIBRIA IN BAYESIAN GAMES OF STRATEGIC COMPLEMENTARITIES Vives Xavier, Insead Co-Authors: Van-Zandt Timothy, , Van-Zandt Timothy, and Van-Zandt Timothy,

11:15 - 12:45

BARGAINING I (THY)
Chairperson: Quan Wen, Vanderbilt University

Room Z1 - Mendell 1

	EFFICIENCY IN NEGOTIATION: COMPLEXITY AND COSTLY BARGAINING Jihong Lee, Birkbeck College, London Co-Author: Hamid Sabourian, University of Cambridge
	FAST BARGAINING IN BANKRUPTCY Benjamin David, University of Southampton
	WAGE NEGOTIATION UNDER GOOD FAITH BARGAINING Quan Wen, Vanderbilt University Co-Author: Jesse Schwartz,

11:15 - 12:45

CONTRIBUTED SESSIONS
Industrial Organization

11:15 - 12:45

REPUTATION II (IOR)
Chairperson: Arthur Fishman, Bar Ilan University

Room Z1 - Darwin

	TRADEMARK SALES, ENTRY, AND THE VALUE OF REPUTATION Howard P Marvel, The Ohio State University Co-Author: Lixin Ye, The Ohio State University
	REPUTATIONS IN THE MARKETPLACE: CAREER TOURNAMENTS AND CRITICISM Pablo Casas-Arce, University of Oxford
	IS BIGGER BETTER? INVESTING IN REPUTATION Arthur Fishman, Bar Ilan University Co-Author: Rafael Rob, University of Pennsylvania

11:15 - 12:45

EMPIRICAL STUDIES OF CONTRACTS AND RENEGOTIATION (IOR)
Chairperson: Jonathan Levin, Stanford University

Room Z2 - Chadwick

	RENEGOTIATION AND RELATIONAL CONTRACTS Ricard Gil, University of California, Santa Cruz
	THE DYNAMICS OF VENTURE CAPITAL CONTRACTS Carsten Bienz, Goethe-University Frankfurt Co-Author: Julia Hirsch, Goethe-University Frankfurt
	EMPLOYMENT VERSUS CONTRACTING IN PROCUREMENT: THEORY AND EVIDENCE FROM U.S. CITIES Jonathan Levin, Stanford University Co-Author: Steve Tadelis, Stanford University

11:15 - 12:45

ENTRY (IOR)
Chairperson: Arijit Mukherjee, University of Nottingham

Room Z2 - Cruciform LT2

	SEQUENTIAL ENTRY AND STRATEGIC DETERRENCE IN THE AIRLINE INDUSTRY Federico Ciliberto, University of Virginia
	THE OPTIMAL CHOICE OF PRE-LAUNCH REVIEWER Daniel Sgroi, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge Co-Author: David Gill, Trinity College, University of Oxford
	HORIZONTAL MERGERS WITH FREE ENTRY Arijit Mukherjee, University of Nottingham Co-Author: Davidson Carl, Michigan State University

12:45 - 14:15

LUNCH

14:15 - 16:15

CONTRIBUTED SESSIONS
Macroeconomics

14:15 - 16:15

TIME CONSISTENCY IN POLICYMAKING (MAC)
Chairperson: Alessandro Riboni, University of Montreal

Room Z3 - Harrie Massey

	OPTIMAL SUSTAINABLE MONETARY POLICY Takushi Kurozumi, Carnegie Mellon University
	MARKOV EQUILIBRIUM IN MODELS OF DYNAMIC ENDOGENOUS POLITICAL INSTITUTIONS Roger Lagunoff, Georgetown University
	A QUANTITATIVE THEORY OF SOCIAL SECUROTY WITHOUT COMMITMENT Xavier Mateos-Planas, University of Southampton
	TIME CONSISTENCY OF CAPITAL TAXES IN A POST-ELECTION DYNAMIC BARGAINING GAME Alessandro Riboni, University of Montreal

14:15 - 16:15

THEORIES OF WAGE AND PRICE SETTING (MAC)
Chairperson: Mirko Wiederholt, Humboldt University Berlin

Room Z3 - Gordon House

	THE EFFECTS OF HETEROGENEITY IN PRICE SETTING ON PRICE AND INFLATION INERTIA Carlos Carvalho, Princeton University
	THE (IR)RELEVANCE OF REAL WAGE RIGIDITY IN THE NEW KEYNESIAN MODEL WITH SEARCH FRICTIONS Michael Krause, Deutsche Bundesbank Co-Author: Thomas Lubik, Johns Hopkins University
	HIGH-FREQUENCY WAGE RIGIDITY Guido Menzio, Northwestern University
	OPTIMAL STICKY PRICES UNDER RATIONAL INATTENTION Mirko Wiederholt, Humboldt University Berlin Co-Author: Bartosz Mackowiak, Humboldt University Berlin

14:15 - 16:15

PRODUCTIVITY AND BUSINESS CYCLES (MAC)
Chairperson: Pedro Perez-Vazquez, University of Valencia

Room Z3 - Ingold Auditorium

	GROWTH EXPECTATIONS AND BUSINESS CYCLES Denhaan Wouter, London Business School Co-Author: georg kaltenbrunner, london business school
	TECHNOLOGY SHOCKS AROUND THE WORLD patrick Fève, University of Toulouse Co-Author: Martial Dupaigne, University of Toulouse
	PRODUCTIVITY AND THE POST 1990 U.S. ECONOMY Ellen McGrattan, Fed Res Bank Minneapolis Co-Author: Edward Prescott, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis
	BUSINESS CYCLE LINKAGES FOR THE G7 COUNTRIES: DOES THE US LEAD THE WORLD? Pedro Perez-Vazquez, University of Valencia Co-Authors: Denise Osborn, University of Manchester and Marianne Sensier, University of Manchester

14:15 - 16:15

MACROECONOMICS OF INCOME DISTRIBUTION (MAC)
Chairperson: Itzhak Zilcha, Tel Aviv University

Room Z3 - Ingold LT

	LAND INEQUALITY AND BARRIERS TO DEVELOPMENT Tasso Adamopoulos, York University
	FACTOR SHARES FROM HOUSEHOLD SURVEY DATA Rodrigo Garcia-Verdu, Banco de Mexico
	ON THE DISTRIBUTIONAL EFFECTS HOUSE PRICE CHANGES Wenli Li, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia
	IMPROVEMENT IN INFORMATION: INCOME INEQUALITY AND HUMAN CAPITAL FORMATION Itzhak Zilcha, Tel Aviv University Co-Author: Bernhard Eckwert, University of Bielefeld

14:15 - 16:15

INFLATION (MAC)
Chairperson: Zorica Mladenovic, Faculty of Economics, University of Belgrade

Room Z3 - Archeology

	A QUANTITATIVE APPRAISAL OF THE SOCIAL COST OF INFLATION Mirta Bugarin, Department of Economics, University of Brasilia, Brazil
	OPTIMAL INFLATION PERSISTENCE: RAMSEY TAXATION WITH CAPITAL AND HABITS Sanjay Chugh, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve
	THE PHILLIPS CURVE AND LONG-TERM UNEMPLOYMENT Ricardo Llaudes, The Johns Hopkins University
	CAGAN'S PARADOX, SEIGNIORAGE COLLECTION AND FORWARD-LOOKING BEHAVIOR: EXPLORING THE EXTREME PORTION OF THE SERBIAN HYPERINFLATION Zorica Mladenovic, Faculty of Economics, University of Belgrade

14:15 - 16:15

CONTRIBUTED SESSIONS
Finance

14:15 - 16:15

BANKING I (FIN)
Chairperson: Vicente Cunat, Universitat Pompeu Fabra

Room Z2 - Engineering LT2

	MULTIPLE BUT ASYMMETRIC BANK FINANCING: THE CASE OF RELATIONSHIP LENDING Heinemann Frank, Munich University Co-Authors: Ralf Elsas, Goethe-University, Frankfurt and Marcel Tyrell, University of Trier
	BANK AND MARKETS IN GENERAL EQUILIBRIUM Antonio Falato, HEC, University of Montreal
	BANK SIZE AND RISK-TAKING UNDER BASEL II Hendrik Hakenes, Max Planck Institute Co-Author: Isabel Schnabel, Max Planck Institute
	LONG TERM DEBT WITH HIDDEN BORROWING Vicente Cunat, Universitat Pompeu Fabra Co-Author: Heski Bar-Isaac, New York University

14:15 - 16:15

PREDICTABILITY OF STOCK RETURNS (FIN)
Chairperson: Anthony Tay, Singapore Management University

Room Z2 - Engineering LT1

	STOCK RETURN PREDICTABILITY IN A PRODUCTION ECONOMY Ilan Cooper, Norwegian School of Management Co-Author: Richard Priestley, Norwegian School of Management BI
	STOCK RETURNS AND DIVIDEND-PRICE RATIO: HAD THE PREDICTIVE RELATION BEEN STABLE DURING THE 1990S? Cheolbeom PARK, Department of Economics, National University of Singapore
	ON THE PREDICTABILITY OF GLOBAL STOCK RETURNS Erik Hjalmarsson, Yale University
	DIRECTION-OF-CHANGE FORECASTS FOR ASIAN EQUITY MARKETS BASED ON CONDITIONAL VARIANCE, SKEWNESS AND KURTOSIS DYNAMICS: EVIDENCE FROM HONG KONG AND SINGAPORE Anthony Tay, Singapore Management University Co-Authors: Peter Christoffersen, McGill University, Frank Diebold, Pennsylvania, Roberto S. Mariano, Singapore Management University and Yiu Kuen Tse, Singapore Management University

14:15 - 16:15

CORPORATE FINANCE THEORY (FIN)
Chairperson: Ajay Subramanian, Department of Risk Management and Insurance, Georgia State University

Room Z2 - Darwin

	DYNAMIC SECURITY DESIGN Jean Charles Rochet, IDEI Toulouse University Co-Authors: bruno biais, toulouse university, thomas mariotti, toulouse university and guillaume plantin, carnegie mellon university, Pittsburgh
	DEBT RESTRUCTURING AND VOTING RULE Philip Bond, University of Pennsylvania Co-Author: Hulya Eraslan, University of Pennsylvania
	BANKRUPTCY: IS IT ENOUGH TO FORGIVE OR MUST WE ALSO FORGET? Ronel Elul, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia
	FINANCING AND DEBT MATURITY CHOICES BY UNDIVERSIFIED OWNER-MANAGERS: THEORY AND EVIDENCE Ajay Subramanian, Department of Risk Management and Insurance, Georgia State University Co-Author: Richard Fu, Georgia Institute of Technology

14:15 - 16:15

CONTRIBUTED SESSIONS
Public/Political Economics

14:15 - 16:15

INFORMATION IN POLITICS (PPE)
Chairperson: Christian Schultz, University of Copenhagen

Room Z2 - Hill

	POLITICAL INFORMATION ACQUISITION FOR SOCIAL EXCHANGE Gani Aldashev, DELTA, ENS
	THE CONSEQUENCES OF COMMITMENT WHEN CANDIDATES HAVE PRIVATE INFORMATION Carlos Maravall, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid
	IS MANDATORY VOTING BETTER THAN VOLUNTARY VOTING? Mattias Polborn, University of Illinois Co-Author: Stefan Krasa, University of Illinois
	INFORMATION, POLARIZATION AND ACCOUNTABILITY IN DEMOCRACY Christian Schultz, University of Copenhagen

14:15 - 16:15

CONTRIBUTED SESSIONS
Development Economics

14:15 - 16:15

LABOR MARKETS IN DEVELOPING COUNTRIES (DEV)
Chairperson: Manuela Angelucci, University of Arizona

Room Z2 - Chadwick

	INTERGENERATIONAL MOBILITY OF WAGES IN BRAZIL Fernando Veloso, Faculdades IBMEC/RJ Co-Author: Sergio Ferreira, IBMEC
	MAXIMUM LIKELIHOOD ESTIMATION OF AN OCCUPATIONAL CHOICE MODEL Esteban Puentes, University of Chicago
	ENDOGENOUS NETWORK FORMATION AND INFORMAL INSTITUTIONS IN VILLAGE ECONOMIES Emanuela Sciubba, University of Cambridge Co-Author: Pramila Krishnan, University of Cambridge
	AID AND MIGRATION: AN ANALYSIS OF THE IMPACT OF PROGRESA ON THE TIMING AND SIZE OF LABOR MIGRATION Manuela Angelucci, University of Arizona

14:15 - 16:15

CONTRIBUTED SESSIONS
Applied and Empirical Microeconomics

14:15 - 16:15

COST AND PRODUCTION ANALYSIS (AEM)
Chairperson: Arvid Raknerud, Statistics Norway

Room Z2 - Biochemestry

	STOCHASTIC FRONTIER MODELS WITH DEPENDENT ERROR COMPONENTS Murray Smith, University of Sydney
	ADJUSTMENT COSTS AND THE IDENTIFICATION OF COBB DOUGLAS PRODUCTION FUNCTIONS Mans Soderbom, Centre for the Study of African Economies, Department of Economics, University of Oxford Co-Author: Stephen Bond, Nuffield College, Oxford
	ROBUSTNESS OF PRODUCTIVITY ESTIMATES Johannes Van Biesebroeck, University of Toronto
	EXIT DYNAMICS WITH ADJUSTMENT COSTS Arvid Raknerud, Statistics Norway

14:15 - 16:15

CONTRIBUTED SESSIONS
Labor Economics

14:15 - 16:15

LABOR SUPPLY (LAB)
Chairperson: Bruce Meyer, University of Chicago

Room Z2 - Embriology

	THE EFFECT OF TRANSFER PROGRAMS ON LABOR SUPPLY IN THE PRESENCE OF PREFERENCE HETEROGENEIETY AND VARIABLE TAKEUP Robert Moffitt, Johns Hopkins University
	ON THE PRICE OF RECREATION GOODS AS A DETERMINANT OF FEMALE LABOR SUPPLY Jorge Gonzalez-Chapela, Mannheim Research Institute for the Economics of Aging
	LOW-FEE ($5 PER DAY PER CHILD) REGULATED CHILDCARE POLICY AND THE LABOUR SUPPLY OF MOTHERS WITH YOUNG CHILDREN: A NATURAL EXPERIMENT FROM CANADA Philip Merrigan, UQAM
	A STRUCTURAL MODEL OF WELFARE, TAXES, LABOR SUPPLY AND PROGRAM PARTICIPATION Bruce Meyer, University of Chicago Co-Author: Bradley Heim, Duke University

14:15 - 16:15

EDUCATION REFORM (LAB)
Chairperson: Josh Angrist, MIT

Room Z2 - Young

	ESTIMATING THE CREAM SKIMMING EFFECT OF PRIVATE SCHOOL VOUCHERS ON PUBLIC SCHOOL STUDENTS Joseph Altonji, Yale University Co-Authors: Ching-I Huang, Northwestern University and Chris Taber, Northwestern
	USING SCHOOL SCHOLARSHIPS TO ESTIMATE THE EFFECT OF PRIVATE EDUCATION ON ACADEMIC ACHIEVEMENT IN CHILE Priyanka Anand, Universidad de Chile Co-Authors: Alejandra Mizala, Associate Professor and Andrea Repetto, Universidad de Chile
	SCHOOL SUBSIDIES, ACHIEVEMENT AND WORK IN MEXICO Susan Parker, CIDE Co-Authors: Jere Behrman, University of Pennsylvania and Petra Todd, University of Pennsylvania, Department of Economics
	LONG-TERM CONSEQUENCES OF SECONDARY SCHOOL VOUCHERS: EVIDENCE FROM ADMINISTRATIVE RECORDS IN COLOMBIA Josh Angrist, MIT Co-Authors: eric bettinger, and michael kremer,

14:15 - 16:15

CONTRIBUTED SESSIONS
International Economics

14:15 - 16:15

EXCHANGE RATES (INT)
Chairperson: Roberto De Santis, European Central bank

Room Z3 - Jevons

	FIXED VERSUS FLEXIBLE EXCHANGE RATES: EVIDENCE FROM DEVELOPING COUNTRIES Mathias Hoffmann, University of Cologne
	LEARNING, MONETARY POLICY RULES, AND EXCHANGE RATE DYNAMICS Nelson Mark, University of Notre Dame
	THE TERM STRUCTURE OF UNCOVERED INTEREST PARITY REGRESSION SLOPES IN AN AFFINE ECONOMY Antonio Diez de los Rios, CIREQ and CIRANO
	EXPLAINING EXCHANGE RATE DYNAMICS AT SHORT HORIZONS: THE ROLE OF FINANCIAL MARKETS Roberto De Santis, European Central bank

14:15 - 16:15

OUTSOURCING (INT)
Chairperson: Maurice Kugler, University of Southampton

Room Z3 - Ricardo

	INSOURCING, OUTSOUCING OR BOTH IN THE GLOBAL ECONOMY Julan Du, Chinese University of Hong Kong Co-Authors: Yi Lu, University of Hong Kong and Zhigang Tao, University of Hong Kong
	FOREIGN OUTSOURCING, EXPORTING, AND FDI: A PRODUCTIVITY COMPARISON AT THE FIRM-LEVEL Eiichi Tomiura, Dept.Econ, Yokohama National University
	TRADE LIBERALIZATION, OUTSOURCING, AND THE HOLD UP PROBLEM. John Turner, University of Georgia Co-Author: Emanuel Ornelas, University of Georgia
	EXPORTING VS. OUTSOURCING BY MULTINATIONAL SUBSIDIARIES: WHICH DETERMINES FOREIGN INVESTMENT SPILLOVERS? Maurice Kugler, University of Southampton Co-Authors: juan blyde, Inter-American Development Bank and Ernesto Stein, Inter-American Development Bank

14:15 - 16:15

CONTRIBUTED SESSIONS
Econometrics

14:15 - 16:15

COINTEGRATION (ECO)
Chairperson: Luis Filipe Martins, Pennsylvania State University and ISCTE

Room Z4 - B33

	DETECTION OF FUNCTIONAL FORM MISSPECIFICATION IN COINTEGRATING RELATIONS Ioannis Kasparis, UNIVERSITY OF NOTTINGHAM
	FREQUENCY DOMAIN GAUSSIAN ESTIMATION OF TEMPORALLY AGGREGATED COINTEGRATED SYSTEMS Roderick McCRORIE, University of Essex Co-Author: Marcus CHAMBERS, University of Essex
	END-OF-SAMPLE COINTEGRATION BREAKDOWN TESTS, APPLICATIONS AND EVIDENCE Jae-Young Kim, School of Economics, Seoul National University Co-Author: Don Andrews, Yale
	TIME VARYING COINTEGRATION WITH AN APPLICATION TO THE PPP THEORY Luis Filipe Martins, Pennsylvania State University and ISCTE Co-Author: Herman Bierens, Pennsylvania State University

14:15 - 16:15

GARCH MODELS (ECO)
Chairperson: Woocheol Kim, Korea Institute of Public Finance

Room Z4 - B34

	ERGODICITY, MIXING, AND EXISTENCE OF MOMENTS OF A CLASS OF MARKOV MODELS WITH APPLICATIONS TO GARCH AND ACD MODELS Mika Meitz, Stockholm School of Economics Co-Author: Pentti Saikkonen, University of Helsinki
	MIXING PROPERTIES OF A GENERAL CLASS OF GARCH(1,1) MODELS WITHOUT MOMENT ASSUMPTIONS Jean-Michel Zakoian, CREST and Université Lille 3 Co-Author: Christian Francq, Université Lille 3
	IS GARCH(1,1) AS GOOD A MODEL AS THE ACCOLADES OF THE NOBEL PRIZE WOULD IMPLY? Catalin Starica, Chalmers University of Technology
	ESTIMATION OF SEMIPARAMETRIC IGARCH(1,1) MODEL Woocheol Kim, Korea Institute of Public Finance Co-Author: Oliver Linton, LSE

14:15 - 16:15

FORECASTING (ECO)
Chairperson: Kajal Lahiri, University at Albany - SUNY

Room Z4 - B35

	UNPREDICTABILITY AND THE FOUNDATIONS OF ECONOMIC FORECASTING David Hendry, University of Oxford
	A MODEL FOR REAL-TIME DATA ASSESSMENT AND FORECASTING Kai Carstensen, Kiel Institute for World Economics Co-Author: David de Antonio Liedo, ECARES, Université Libre de Bruxelles
	FORECASTING WITH WEAKLY NESTED MODELS Todd Clark, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City Co-Author: michael mccracken, University of Missouri
	DETECTING AND PREDICTING FORECAST BREAKDOWNS Raffaella Giacomini, UCLA Economics Co-Author: Barbara Rossi, Duke University

14:15 - 16:15

ECONOMETRIC METHODOLOGY (ECO)
Chairperson: Bernt P. Stigum, University of Oslo

Room Z4 - B20

	ECONOMETRICS IN RETROSPECT AND PROSPECT Aris Spanos, Virginia Tech
	FREQUENTIST STATISTICS AND A THEORY OF INDUCTIVE INFERENCE Deborah Mayo, Virginia Tech Co-Author: David R Cox, Nuffield College, Oxford
	RESOLVING THREE `INTRACTABLE' PROBLEMS USING A GENERAL-TO-SPECIFIC APPROACH Hans-Martin Krolzig, University of Kent Co-Author: David Hendry, University of Oxford
	BRIDGE PRINCIPLES IN EMPIRICAL ANALYSES Bernt P. Stigum, University of Oslo

14:15 - 16:15

TREATMENT EFFECT MODELS (ECO)
Chairperson: Myoung-jae Lee, Singapore Management University

Room Z4 - B36

	DYNAMIC DISCRETE CHOICE AND DYNAMIC TREATMENT EFFECTS Salvador Navarro, The University of Chicago Co-Author: James Heckman, The University of Chicago
	SEMIPARAMETRIC CAUSALITY TESTS USING THE POLICY PROPENSITY SCORE Guido Kuersteiner, Boston University Co-Author: Josh Angrist, MIT
	INEQUALITY TREATMENT EFFECTS Sergio Firpo, PUC-Rio and UBC
	TREATMENT EFFECT AND SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS FOR SELF-SELECTED TREATMENT AND SELECTIVELY OBSERVED RESPONSE Myoung-jae Lee, Singapore Management University

14:15 - 16:15

CONTRIBUTED SESSIONS
Economic Theory

14:15 - 16:15

AUCTIONS III (THY)
Chairperson: John Asker, NYU Stern School of Business

Room Z1 - Darwin

	DYNAMIC MATCHING MECHANISMS Lawrence Ausubel, University of Maryland Co-Author: Peter Cramton, University of Maryland
	SECOND BEST EFFICIENCY IN AUCTIONS Fabio Michelucci, University College London Co-Author: Angel Hernando-Veciana, Universidad de Alicante
	SEARCHING THE EBAY MARKETPLACE Katharina Sailer, University of Munich
	HOW TO BUY A DIFFERENTIATED PRODUCT John Asker, NYU Stern School of Business Co-Author: Estelle Cantillon, FNRS, ECARES (Université Libre de Bruxelles), Harvard Business School and CEPR

14:15 - 16:15

DYNAMIC GAMES I (THY)
Chairperson: V Bhaskar , University of Essex

Room Z1 - Jenner 1

	COORDINATION FAILURE IN REPEATED GAMES WITH ALMOST-PUBLIC MONITORING George Mailath, University of Pennsylvania Co-Author: Stephen Morris, Yale
	DISCOUNTED SUPERMODULAR STOCHASTIC GAMES: THEORY AND APPLICATIONS RABAH AMIR, Dept of Economics, University of Arizona
	ENDOGENOUS MONITORING Ichiro Obara,
	COMMITMENT AND OBSERVABILITY IN AN ECONOMIC ENVIRONMENT V Bhaskar , University of Essex

14:15 - 16:15

DECISION THEORY (THY)
Chairperson: Yoram Halevy, University of British Columbia

Room Z1 - Jenner 2

	SUBJECTIVE PROBABILITY OVER A SUBJECTIVE DECISION TREE Norio Takeoka, Department of Economics, University of Rochester
	STATISTICAL DECISIONS UNDER AMBIGUITY: AN AXIOMATIC ANALYSIS Joerg Stoye, Department of Economics, New York University
	DYNAMIC CHOICE UNDER AMBIGUITY Marciano Siniscalchi, Economics Department, Northwestern University
	ELLEBERG REVISITED: AN EXPERIMENTAL STUDY Yoram Halevy, University of British Columbia

14:15 - 16:15

GENERAL EQUILIBRIUM I (THY)
Chairperson: Mitsunobu Miyake, Tohoku University

Room Z1 - Mendell 1

	GENERAL EQUILIBRIUM WITH ASYMMETRIC INFORMATION AND DEFAULT PENALTIES Nuno Gouveia, CERMSEM Université Paris I Panthéon-Sorbonne
	GLOBAL IDENTIFICATION FROM THE EQUILIBRIUM MANIFOLD UNDER INCOMPLETE MARKETS Alvaro Riascos, Banco de la República de Colombia Co-Author: Andres Carvajal, Yale University and Royal Holloway
	THE STRATEGIC MARSHALLIAN CROSS AND BILATERAL OLIGOPOLY Alex Dickson, Keele University Co-Author: Roger Hartley, Keele University
	A DERIVATION OF THE PARTIAL EQUILIBRIUM MODEL Mitsunobu Miyake, Tohoku University

14:15 - 16:15

CONTRIBUTED SESSIONS
Industrial Organization

14:15 - 16:15

THEORY OF ORGANIZATIONS (IOR)
Chairperson: Lucia Quesada, University of Wisconsin - Madison

Room Z1- Mendell 2

	AN ORGANIZATIONAL MODEL OF ATTITUDE CHANGE João Amaro de Matos, Universidade Nova de Lisboa Co-Author: Luis Almeida Costa, Universidade Nova de Lisboa
	RELATIONAL DELEGATION Niko Matouschek, Kellogg School of Management Co-Author: Ricardo Alonso, Kellogg School of Management
	FEEDBACK AND MOTIVATION IN DYNAMIC TOURNAMENTS Florian Ederer, MIT, Department of Economics
	CREDIBILITY OF AUDITORS AND INCENTIVES TO COLLUDE Lucia Quesada, University of Wisconsin - Madison Co-Author: Eloic Peyrache, HEC School of Management

14:15 - 16:15

CONTRIBUTED SESSIONS
Experimental and Behavioral Economics

14:15 - 16:15

DECISIONS IN GAMES (EBE)
Chairperson: Palacios-Huerta Ignacio, Brown University

Room Z1 - Cruciform LT1

	DO PEOPLE THINK ABOUT ABSOLUTE OR RELATIVE DIFFERENCES? EXPERIMENTS, PRICING IMPLICATIONS, AND MARKET EVIDENCE Ofer H. Azar, Ben-Gurion University of the Negev
	INFERRING DECISION RULES FROM EXPERIMENTAL CHOICE DATA Jim Engle-Warnick, Mcgill University Department of Economics
	STATED BELIEFS AND PLAY IN NORMAL-FORM GAMES Georg Weizsäcker, London School of Economics Co-Author: Miguel A. Costa-Gomes, University of York
	RATIONAL ATTENTION IN A REPEATED DECISION PROBLEM Palacios-Huerta Ignacio, Brown University Co-Author: Miravete Eugenio J., University of Pennsylvania

14:15 - 16:15

EXPERIMENTAL STUDIES OF REPUTATIONS (EBE)
Chairperson: Tobias Regner, Imperial College London

Room Z1 - Cruciform LT2

	INDIRECT RECIPROCITY AND STRATEGIC REPUTATION BUILDING IN AN EXPERIMENTAL HELPING GAME Dirk Engelmann, Royal Holloway, University of London Co-Author: Urs Fischbacher, University of Zurich
	INCENTIVES, DECISION FRAMES, AND MOTIVATION CROWDING OUT – AN EXPERIMENTAL INVESTIGATION Bernd Irlenbusch, London School of Economics Co-Author: Dirk Sliwka, University Cologne
	AN EXPERIMENTAL TEST OF CAREER CONCERNS Alexander K Koch, Royal Holloway, University of London Co-Authors: Albrecht Morgenstern, Federal Ministry of Finance and Philippe Raab, IZA
	WHY VOLUNTARY CONTRIBUTIONS? GOOGLE ANSWERS! Tobias Regner, Imperial College London

16:15 - 17:00

BREAK

17:00 - 18:30

WALRAS-BOWLEY LECTURE

17:00 - 18:30

WALRAS-BOWLEY LECTURE (PPE)
Chairperson: James Mirrlees, University of Cambridge

Room

ELECTORAL STRATEGY AND ECONOMIC POLICY
Timothy Besley, London School of Economics

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