Contributed Papers, SATURDAY, AUGUST 26, 1:30 - 3:00 p.m.

Monetary Policy (Session 26a-21)

Chair: N.F.R. Crafts (University of Warwick, UK)

Monetary Factors in the Great Depression in Australia
Mark CROSBY (University of New South Wales, Australia)

Are the Effects of Monetary Policy Asymmetric?
Rene GARCIA (Universite de Montreal, Canada)
Huntley Schaller

Estimating Exchange Market Pressure and the Degree of Exchange Market Intervention for Canada
Diana N. WEYMARK (Western Washington University, USA)

Long Range Dependence 1 (Session 26a-22)

Chair: Ignacio N. Lobato (University of Iowa, USA)

Long Range Dependence in International Output Series: A Reexamination
Michael A. HAUSER (University of Economics & Business Administration)

Flexible Seasonal Long Memory and Econometric Time Series
Marius OOMS (Erasmus University Rotterdam, The Netherlands)

Labor Supply 1 (Session 26a-23)

Chair: Jean-Marc Robin (INRA and CREST-INSEE, France)

Estimating a Model of Saving and Labour Market Transitions with Dutch Data
Hans G. BLOEMEN (Tilburg University, The Netherlands)

Estimating Labour Supply Responses Using Tax Reforms
Costas MEGHIR (University College London, UK)
Alan Duncan
Richard Blundell

Index Numbers (Session 26a-25)

Chair: Ilpo Suoniemi (Government Institute for Economic Research, Finland)

Approximating a Cost-of-Living Index from Demand Functions: A Retrospect
Bert M. BALK (Statistics Netherlands, The Netherlands)

Empirical Application of the Hedonic Approach to the Personal Computer Market in Japan: Effects in Quality Changes on the Price
Shigenori SHIRATSUKA (Bank of Japan)

Bayesian Econometrics (Session 26a-26)

Chair: Dale J. Poirier (University of Toronto, Canada)

Bayesian Monte Carlo Encompassing & Cost Function
Jamal BOUOIYOUR (Universite des Sciences Sociales, France)

Fair Bayes Factors for Linear Models Derived from Squared Predictive Likelihoods
Pieter J. VAN DER SLUIS (Tinbergen Institute, The Netherlands)
Aart F. de Vos

Bayesian Method of Moments/Instrumental Variable (BMOM/IV) Analysis of Mean & Regression Models
Arnold ZELLNER (University of Chicago, USA)

Import Demand (Session 26a-31)

Chair: Elmer Sterken (University of Groningen, The Netherlands)

Imports of Manufactures and Spain's Accession to the European Union
P.M.C. DE BOER (Erasmus University Rotterdam, The Netherlands)
C. Martinez
R. Harkema

Terms-of-Trade Uncertainty and the Distribution of Income
Ulrich KOHLI (University of Geneva, Switzerland)
Elie Appelbaum

The Constancy of Illusions or the Illusion of Constancies: Income and Price Elasticities for U.S. Imports, 1890-1992
Jaime MARQUEZ (Federal Reserve Board, USA)

Kernel Estimation (Session 26a-32)

Chair: Jan G.de Gooijer (University of Amstedam, The Netherlands)

Consistent Testing for Serial Correlation of Unknown Form
Yongmial HONG (Cornell University, USA)

Functional Misspecification Consistent Estimation of Long-Run Variance
Kiho JEONG (Kyungpook National University, The Republic of Korea)

Properties of the Autoregressive Spectral Density Estimator at Frequency Zero for ARIMA Processes
Pierre PERRON (Universite de Montreal, Canada)
Serena NG

Cointegration Estimation (Session 26a-33)

Chair: Charles H. Whiteman (The University of Iowa, USA)

On the Usage of some New Cointegrating Relation Estimators: Finite Sample Results from Simulations and from an Application to the Public Capital
Dan E. HAMILTON (University of California, USA)

Asymptotically Efficient Estimation and Hypothesis Testing for Cointegrating Vectors
David HARRIS (Monash University, Australia)

Finite Sample Arguments for Appropriate Estimation of Cointegrating Vectors
Brett INDER (Monash University, Australia)

Stock Markets 2 (Session 26a-35)

Chair: Bruce Mizrach (Rutgers University, USA)

Business Fixed Investment and "Bubbles": The Japanese Case
Robert S. CHIRINKO (Emory University, USA)
Huntley Schaller

Correlation Structure of the Permanent and Temporary Components of International Stock Market Prices
Ray Y. CHOU (Georgia Institute of Technology, USA)
Bictor K.Ng

Common Trends and Transitory Components of Stock Price Volatility
Jean-Pierre URBAIN (University of Limburg, The Netherlands)
Franz C. Palm

Growth 4: Capital Markets (Session 26a-36)

Chair: Lars Stole (University of Chicago, USA)

Competition, Financial Discipline and Growth
Philippe AGHION (Nuffield College, University of Oxford, UK)
Mathias Dewatripont
Patrick Rey

Growth and Risk-Sharing with Incomplete International Assets Markets
Makoto SAITO (University of British Columbia, Canada)
Michael B. Devereux

Indivisibilities and Capital Market Imperfections in an Endogenous Growth Model
Louis M. CHAN (Hong Kong University of Science and Technology)

Choice and Uncertainty (Session 26a-41)

Chair: Itzhak Zilcha (Tel Aviv Unibersity, ISRAEL)

Preference, Probability, Uncertainty --The Basic Decomposition Theorem
Karl VIND (University of Copenhagen, Denmark)

Probability, Uncertainty and Behaviour: A Keynesian Perspective
William GERRARD (University of York, UK)

Aggregating Ordinal Probabilities on Finite Sets
John A. WEYMARK (University of British Columbia, Canada)

Macroeconomics 2: Simulations (Session 26a-42)

Chair: Sylvester Eijffinger (Tilburg University, The Netherlands) A Simple Model of Money and Taxes and an Illustration with Brazilian Data
Bart TURTELBOOM (International Monetary Fund, USA)
Alberto Giovannini

A Simple RBC Model with Money and Income Taxes
Christian Andrew JOHNSON (Duke University, USA)

The Trade Balance and Budget Deficits in International Real Business Cycles
Toshiya ISHIKAWA (Kyushu Kyoritsu University, Japan)

Labor Markets 3: Unemployment (Session 26a-43)

Chair : TBA Demand Management and Structural Unemployment in an Open Economy
Torben M. ANDERSEN (University of Aarthus, Denmark)

Do Labour Market Programmes Necessarily Crowd Out Regular Employment? - A Matching Model Analysis
Jimmy MILLER (Tilburg University, The Netherlands)

Wages, Participation and Targeting - The Case of the Employment Guarantee Scheme in India
Raghav GAIHA (University of Delhi, India)

Political Economy (Session 26a-46)

Chair: Herve Moulin (Duke University, USA)

The Theory of Justice
Serge KOLM (Institute for Advanced Studies in the Social Science, France)

Redistribution and Administrative Federalism
Robert SCHWAGER (Otto-von-Guericke-Universitaet Magdeburg, Germany)

Exit, Voice and Choice - An Analysis of Quasi-Markets
Alistair MUNRO (University of East Anglia, UK)

Nash Equilibrium (Session 26a-53)

Chair: Eric van Damme (Tilburg University)

Axiomatic Considerations of Nash Equilibrium
Mamoru Kaneko (University of Tsukuba, Japan)

An Axiomatization of Nash Equilibria in Economic Situations: The Infinite Dimensional Case
Tomoichi SHINOTSUKA (Otaru University of Commerce, Japan)

Algebraic Complexity of Strategy-Implementing Automatons for Repeated-Play Games
Mark R. JOHNSON (The University of Alabama, USA)

Organizational Design and Decision Making (Session 26a-54)

Chair: Jeffrey Zwiebel (Stanford University)

A Theory of Vertical Integration Based on Monitoring Costs
Jacques CREMER (CNRS, GREMAQ and IDEI, France)

Advocates
Mathias DEWATRIPONT (Universite Libre de Bruxelles, Belgium)
Jean Tirole

Information and Coordination in U-Form and M-Form Organizations
Chenggang XU (London School of Economics, UK)
Yingyi Qian
G. Roland

Achieving Coordination (Session 26a-55)

Chair: John Riley (University California, Los Angeles)

What Price Coordination? -- Auctioning the Right to Play as a Form of Preplay Communication
Vincent P. CRAWFORD (University of California, San Diego, USA)
Bruno Broseta

Evolutionary Analyses of Tacit Communication in Van Huyck, Battalio, and Beil's Game Experiments
Yong-Gwan KIM (University of Iowa, USA)

On Learning and the Stability of Cycles
John DUFFY (University of Pittsburgh, USA)
James Bullard

Program World Conference Econometric Society Tokyo, August 1995